BFSP - How is it calculated?
 

Anyone have any clues on how BFSP is calcuated?
I've always assumed it was similar to the tote, however have been noticing in some of the lower liquidity markets it just doesn't seem to work that way.

For example Goulburn R1, Horse 7 today.
There was $38 backing it at SP, yet $1640 on the lay side, but the start price was $12.91. What happens to the extra money that was there to lay it?

Is there some black magic going on in the background that somehow backs and lays other horses to create a balance? I'm not complaining either way, as it obviously somehow works which is great for me, more just interested in trying to understand how they match it all up when its very out of balance like in the above example.

Its not hard to understand. They take the market just at SP and apply it to the exchange prices at the jump of the race. It includes exchange money not just SP money. The SP money could also have limits and not be included.

Read this and see if it explains it to you:

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/gett...ing-price-faqs/

Go through each question even if you don't think its useful as they hide some facts in there. For example the best explanation of how SP actually works is in the last question on "What is the near price and how is it reconciled".

That basically gives you the SP calculation but its run now instead of at the start of a race.

If you have more questions ask again.

Its probably also worth knowing that the lay price is really just all the horses being backed. So money from other horses could go against this horse.

Thanks for that link, helped alot, still quite confusing, but have a better understanding (I think) anyway.

As they say on QI......"nobody knows".

I don't find it that hard to understand. Working out the final price is hard because we don't have all the information till the race turns in play but the concept of what they are doing seems logical to me.

How do they explain that one race can be 100%, and the next with a similar field size, similar class, similar turnover, can be 110%, or 95%? (Look at BR7 yesterday.)

It all comes down to available money at the start off the race. If there is lots of money available for SP at that time it will be closer to 100%. If there isn't as much then it will be skewed in either direction depending on where the weight of the money is or each selection.

If I could predict the SP figure I could make money every single race. Unfortunately even predicting the up/down from current price 10 secs to the start time is hard to do consistently.