Laying no.1
 

Back again with the topweight. Since last Saturday (31/12/05) I have been looking at no.1 where there are no symbols/legends against its name. So, it has not won at the distance, track, not a last start beaten fave, etc. I have restricted those that are under $4 in the pre-post market and have omitted Maiden and 2 year-old races.

The results are:
18 selections for 3 winners totalling $9.30 with the NSW TAB. 18 samples are unrealistic to even think of drawing any conclusions. Today there have been two selections that have been beaten. Today's selections if anyone is interested are:

Randwick R3 - Frozen (beaten)
Randwick R8 - Snowden
Sandown R3 - Lucky Diva (beaten)
Morphetville R8 - Road Worker
Newcastle R4 - Federal Reserve
Mudgee R4 - The Lady Hussey (ridden by G Ryan, not a good sign)
Mudgee R7 - Offshore Account (again, ridden by G Ryan)

Mudgee race 4 The Lady Hussey , just beaten at about $ 1.50 which was good because I was on the thing that beat it @ $ 21.90

Hi, Dr Ron. Glad you backed it.

I was going to back around the selections but for some silly reason decided not to have a bet. I would've cleaned up because I would also have had the winner at Mudgee R7 which paid $42. Hope you backed it.

Only one winner of $1.70 from the seven lay selections, and I understand it almost got beaten. Not a bad start to the system.

I was up 30 units for the day after Mudgee race 4 so I called it quits. I would not have backed the race 7 winner as it wouldn't be a qualifyer for me, a long with a few other losing bets so stopping when I did turned out to be a smart move. I am not normally known for that.

One lay today:

Nowra R1 no1 - Pride Of Pins ($3.00)

Yesterday's lay was beaten - a good result.

Two for today:
Cessnock R4 - Parity ($2.20)
Cessnock R7 - In The Attic (2.50)

Parity out of a place, started 5.90 on unitab

Mr Michaelg money pit,
 

I like this one!

I suppose all you people with databases will shoot this down and I sure don't know about long term viability, but this makes a lot of sense to me. Good on ya Michaelg.

Hi, Dr Ron.That was a surprisingly disappointing price because not only was it $2.20 pre-post but the third fave of $4.50 was scratched, so it could have easily been expected to start even shorter than the $2.20. It only takes one of these to win to cause damage to the system. I don't know what it was showing here on the NSW Tab. Interestingly, the other selection, In The Attic started at $2.60 on Unitab yet on NSW it was either $1.80 or $1.70 - I can't remember which.

Twobets, so far so good. Since posting here on Saturday there have been 10 selections for only one winner of $1.70. I read in the latest edition of probably the most well known punting magazine (I don't know if I'm allowed to name it so I won't) where a punter sent them some stats on TAB no.1. According to this, when no.1 starts fave, the win strike rate is 52% and the average dividend is $2.60. This is a big worry for my laying of no.1 as according to the pre-post it is the fave. Time will tell... I have also been testing the system with non-no.1. The results have not been as good, but they are promising:- since 01/01/06 there have been 24 selections for 6 winners totalling $14.70. I'll list the selections here also and see how they go. I'll call it the non-topweight system

No1 System
Victoria Park R6 - Imperial Faberge ($2.80)

Non-topweight System
Sandown R2 no.6 - Jugahs Star ($3.50)
Victoria Park R3 no.3 - Slinky Nandina ($3.50)
Victoria Park R5 no.3 - Barker Lad ($3.50)
Devenport R1 no.2 - Esterel ($3.00)
Devenport R10 no.4 - Smarty Benison ($2.80)

How many races was this over? If it's a substantial number and these results are accurate who needs any other system?

KV