Calculating the effect on BFSP
 

Is there any simple way to work out the approx BFSP if say for example you had another $100 on a selection?

Have stumbled across something by accident which is showing a healthy return for both place and win betting at BFSP, but also aware that place markets in particular on BF are pretty limited, especially on some longer shots.

Anyone had any experience in estimating the effect of extra money on the BFSP?

Yes I have a very profitable system at BFSP in the US markets. That is until I put money on it. Anything more than about $50 and the system turns unprofitable as the BFSP odds are dramatically affected if the selection is not in the top couple.

It really all depends on the market liquidity and the selection. If your talking about the top few chances then your probably ok. I can be known to put thousands on at BFSP and the odds hardly move. These are on selections with odds less than $10 and the markets have good liquidity.

I also know that if I tried that in the greyhound markets I would get smashed as the ods would drift significantly at BFSP prices.

If you want a better idea on your selections and don't want to give away the odds range or market types here just email me at betfinder@exemail.com.au with more details and I'll give you a better idea of the impact of the bet size on BFSP.

Can't answer your question Thorns, but I have been playing a place only sytem for quite a few years now, using bets tote (Metro races only) it shows a tiny but regular profit, a few years back I tried to increase stakes from $100 in stages trying to get , well I don't really know but definitely in excesss of $500 bets, over time the profit grew slimmer and slimmer until it disappeared.

I reverted back to $100 bets and it certainly did re-appear. So somehow it finds it's way into the pools, ( remeber I am backing with a bookie, albeit Corporate) and it really only took a few bets of $200-$300 to affect the Divies.

Hey thorns, send your system to me too so I can also have a look at it.

And this from the guy that took all us suckers for ride with his "test your system" here baloney a few years back. :rolleyes:

I am just offering help. Its up to thorns if he wants more specific information or not. But I can't give a better answer without a better explanation of the odds range and market types.
Getting any information is almost non-existent these days unless you have your own database (which only a few have) and even fewer people have BFSP databases or BF exchange databases.

Not really willing to share the method at this stage as its very simple.
Odds for the place range from 1.50 to 6.7 so far, throws up a variety of favs to outsiders and around 3 selections a race. Dont know how well it will hold up long term, on the TAB its break even, so think I will just start with some small $5 BFSP bets and test it out.

Yes, that is my main concern, although I imagine with the small volumes in a lot of place markets, even a $30 bet is going to blow the odds on some of the longer priced horses. Hopefuly I'm wrong, but dont like to get to excited these days about golden geese.

I did have some better sucess backing fixed price for the place but only where the price was 1/4 (or better) of the win odds. But I then had an account closed which put the mockers on it.

ok so I am assuming betting and not laying. I also assume Aus markets only. I am assuming 7 days a week. If any of these assumptions are wrong then let me know.

Anything below $2.20 is going to be ok but don't expect much better odds then TAB and TAB will be higher on occassion especially after commission. The reason being odds may show $1.60 on TAB before the jump and betfair SP will go at around $1.68 and then TAB after the jump changes to $1.70 or $1.80. Place prices on the tote move around dramatically.

Anything over $2.20 to $6 is going to push it down slightly. But if yous tick to under $200 bets then it shouldn't affect it too badly and it will be better odds then the TAB almost always.

Anything above $6 a $200 bet could have dramatic affect depending on the liquidity. But saying that even after the bet would be applied your odds would be significantly better than the TAB odds in almost all instances.

I have generalised a bit in the ranges but that is a rough guide to the likely outcome on $200 bets.

Hopefully that helps.

Thanks UB, some food for thought!