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-   -   4 Horse Value Staking Plan. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19119)

Bhagwan 22nd July 2009 08:47 AM

4 Horse Value Staking Plan.
 
Here's a multi bet value plan that very few will be familiar with, but can work brilliantly with the right race.

Grab 4 horses from a rating service, say from this site or the less accurate Neurals.
We are going to back 4 horses in the same race.
Maybe delete their 1st or 2nd selection so as to inject more value.
Quite often , the top selection doesn't run a drum so maybe delete it.
Do this until we have 4 horses.

We do this because of the usually scattered odds, which can be anything on Betfair.

Bet 3 units on the longest price of the 4 runners.
A unit can be .10% of bank

Convert the longest price of the 4 to fractional odds & always round down.
e.g. 12.80 = 11/1

Now bet the equivalent odds into units & bet these on the remaining 3 horses.
Up to 20/1 even if the 4th horse is longer than this.

If say the shortest price wins, at say 3.30
One will be in profit.
If the longest price gets up , we will have a break even or small profit.

Example.
Lets take the the top 5 from ,say the ratings on this site.
Delete their top selection (optional) leaving us with 4 horses.
Betfair price could be $4.00 + 6.00 + 8.00 + 24.00
Bet 3 units x 24.00 (20/1 max) = 72 ret
Bet 20 units x 4.00 = 80 ret
Bet 20 units x 6.00 = 120 ret
Bet 20 units x 8.00 = 160 ret

$100 bank.
Total O/L 63 units x .10% unit of bank = O/L 6.30

Its an idea to place the highest priced last, because their price tends to blow out at the last minuet.

I feel the overall returns can be higher than straight Dutching.
One maybe supprised at some of the returns this can pull in the Favs dont decide to get up all day.


It would be interesting to see individuals findings after trying this approach, wheather it be simulated or real money.

Cheers.


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