Work out your own prices or keep losing. Here's how.
 

Race odds are actually percentages not dollars [$3.50] or fractions [5/1].
Your market is the winning % chance of your top 3 to 5 horses [depending on race size] in a race.
All horses combined in a race equal 100% total chance [don't get this confused with bookie or TAB !00%+ markets even if your on the gold coast facing a 200% bookie market]. We are talking about actual winning chance.

As a rule of thumb, in an average twelve horse race for your top five runners you should set your market to 80%. The other 20% represents the rest of the fields chances combined.
For smaller fields of 4 to 7 can be about 90% for 7 runners and about 95% for 4 or 5 runners.
Large fields of 15/18 should be anywhere down to 60/70%.

All you need to do to frame your own market is to turn your opinion of each horse into a number between 1 and 10.

A really big chance [Makybe Diva] or any real stand out would be a 10
An an outside chance 1/3,. some chance 4/6, a good chance 7/8. Anyway you get the drift.
Practice will make perfect and it becomes very simple once the concept and how it works quickly falls into place [from actual practice].

For our 5 runners in this imaginary 12 horse race we'll set the market to 80%.[ 5% either way is not critical].
We have looked at the form and decided there were 2 really good about equal chances and another 3 with some chances.
We have scored them: A =8, B =8, C =6, D =5, E =3. Total number of points = 30.

We now divide each Horse's point number by their total. 30 in this example and multiply by our 80% market.
Eg: divide 8 by 30 and multiply by 0.8 [80%] and we get 21.333332 [8/30 x 0.8 = 21.3%]

The winning % chance of each horse in our opinion has become:
Horse.....Points.......Calculation...... Winning Chance
A................8..............8/30 x 0.8.........= 21.3%
B............ ...8..............8/30 x 0.8.........= 21.3%
C................6..............6/30 x 0.8.........= 16%
D................5..............5/30 x 0.8.........= 13%
E................3..............2/30 x 0.8.........= 5%

To calculate the price for each horse, divide its winning % chance into 100.
Eg: [A] 100 divided by 21.3 = 4.69 or $4.70

We are now armed with our own prices based on our opinion, not someone else's.
A. $4.70, B. $4.70, C $ $6.30, D $ 20

We look at the prices offered and we find: A $5.50, B $7, C $3.50, D $16
We have an obvious [to us] false favorite C. Our bet would be to take both A and B or probably B straight out as the best value.
Ignore your personal fancy.

If your having a straight out bet go for the better value of your top 2 as you are wrong more than 75% of the time [mostly] anyway. If C was $15 there is a good bet in taking B and C to win or even just C.

Do all this 500 times and you will be making money if you have spent a bit of effort in learning how too handicap a race and then do your own priceline on the top 3 to 5 in the morning market. It's value we are looking for not your winning preference. The public are wrong 70% of the time, represented as the fav. and they can select the winner better than we can. We need VALUE, not a selection we think will win at any old price.

Follow your preferences/selections regardless of price and you will be making donations to TAB shareholders and Bookies for the rest of your punting life.

Thanks Crash
 

That is really cool of you.
I wondered how one "framed"

Thanks heaps, great info.

Cheers Dingo

Top post!! I already know how to do it but for any new guys to the game i think you should print it out quick smart.

I've been meaning to get around to putting up a simple pricline method for some time. I'm glad there are some here serious enough to have taken advantage of it. There is no simple way to make money in this game and I'm still learning. Some good years and some not so good but no longer any 'bad' years.

There are other priceline methods to reach the same result as I have demonstrated here, but this one is very simple and it is as effective and accurate as any other.

Importantly, if you see any race with too many runners in the top 3 or 4 morning price lines, ignore the race. More than 4 in a 9 horse race? Ignore the race. More than 5 in a 12 horse race? Ignore the race. You are avoiding races with too many winning possibilities. There are plenty of other races to choose from.