This post follows on from Bhagwan's amazing crappy staking plan.

See what you think. It's based on ability and on distribution of ability in a given race.

1) Count up in a race the total of horses with tabq rating of 94 or better
2) Add one to this total to make a dividend eg if you find 5, then the target dividend to seek is 5/1 or $6. This is meant to be based on the natural odds of 5 horses which have been rated with at least a 87% chance of winning. (not exact but thereabouts)
3) Find amongst those which have 94 or better AND came 5th or better last start which meet the dividend.
4) If the dividend is below $6 then bet only if there is one selectable. 2 max if $6 and bet on three horses only if the dividend is $9 etc etc give or take 50c.

The overall result is finding value amongst distribution of ability.

See what you think.....

As an example

Saturday 14th September

BR2 7
BR3 1
SR2 9
SR3 11,7 (placed $5.30)
SR4 7,5 $10.40
SR6 1
SR7 4,9,5
SR8 3,12 $17.00
MR4 9
MR6 2
QR2 1,6,15
QR7 5,6 $7.60
QR8 6 $7.20

Well done Fryingpan , for sharing your findings.

It deserves closer research to see if we can make the wheels fall off it.
If they dont fall off , we`ll be have to put a bag over our heads so that the Bookie can`t see the big cheesey crins on our faces, when we go to collect.

Hey this is great. I'm going to have a lot of fun going through some past results with this and see what happened. Would be interesting to see if it was profitable for provincial and mid week racing where sometimes the winner pays better. I have time at present during the week to bet. I always appreciate Baghwans postings and believe he often gets a lot of unhelpful criticism. Keep up the good work both of you.

Luckylouie

The method I used in this post to make the selections is arbitrary. Meaning it could be anything that works (better) and I used the fact that over 80% of races are won by those that ran 5th or better (statistically). I would suggest trying out those wonderful Propun ratings and matching those with the distribution of ability. Or something else you are confident about. eg Ave prizemoney or speed or whatever....