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Melbourne Cup 2020
Inside a month 'til the 2020 Andrew Ramsden, the race that gives ballot exemption in the Melbourne Cup to the winner. It will be taking place on May 16th on the Flemington racecourse.
Of $320,000. 1st $192,000, 2nd $57,600, 3rd $28,800, 4th $14,400, 5th $8,000, 6th $6,400, 7th $6,400, 8th $6,400 Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution Listed No class restriction, Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old, Four-Years-Old and Five-Years-Old, No sex restriction Nominations close May 11th. Last year's race saw a ding dong battle between Steel Prince and Surprise Baby. The former took the win but both ended up in the final Melbourne Cup field. Surprise Baby @ $12 finished the best of the pair in 5th 0.9L with Steel Prince - who had struggled to find form since his Spring return - coming in 9th 2.1L @ $61. They were the only two to progress from the Andrew Ramsden to The Cup. Re-watch last year's Ramsden here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys Complicating things a wee bit is interstate travel. The current Racing Victoria regulations allow horses to travel but none of the staff. The horse must be placed in the care of a local trainer and in their stable by 9am the day prior to a race. What does that mean for splitting prizemoney? Also, unless transported by an approved company, anyone else who does so won't be permitted access to Victorian racecourses for 14 days. Is this going to impact entries from NSW? Racing is currently suspended in England, France, Germany, Ireland, Dubai and New Zealand. It remains to be seen how those suspensions will effect nominations for the Melbourne Cup. A lot will depend on when racing can begin in each of those respective countries. The qualification period for performances is quite a large one though: from 1st February 2019, if the Race Conditions remain similar to last year's. Glancing through the first 2019 Order of Entry (https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-12) and quite a lot of European entrants qualified in races from June through to August. British Racing announced that their activities will remain suspended until at least the end of this month, to be reviewed again as time passes. If the races are held eventually then someone will have to win them, only perhaps with not the same polish as in previous years. International air freight is still operating, so the horses could get here and the major stables would likely be keen to race for big money. Is the prize going to be as big though? There's little chance of a huge crowd coming through the turnstiles and given that 50% of betting turnover is via from pubs, clubs and TAB agencies, then there may be less in the kitty. Minimum prizemoney for Victorian races has already been reduced by 20% on Metro courses. Overseas stables are likely to be doing it tough as well, horses still need care and staff paid, but there's no prizemoney coming in to offset those costs; they may be less willing to take on a hugely expensive risk. Depending on how long restrictions go on and where, there could be few to no Northern Hemisphere 3yos, less internationals and more local starters in The Cup. That may sound great if you're a nationalist, but given that Australia has few genuine horses over distance, it's as likely to turn it into another sit-and-sprint coin flip. And that's all presuming that we can continue to keep COVID-19 under control in Australia. We've been remarkably lucky and it's undoubtedly bred some complacency. Our current success could also mean that we have pushed the disease peak later in the year, given how few people have caught it the first time around. Whatever occurs it would seem unlikely that the Melbourne Cup would be cancelled but it could be the most interesting lead-up for quite a while! |
Looking forward to your views on the cup this year Mac.
Top thread and insights last year. Will be a different ball game this year i fear with all the upheaval. Fingers crossed the TBreds can keep going around. |
Sacramento has won a ballot exemption for the Andrew Ramsden after taking out the VRC St Leger in a very tight finish yesterday: https://video.twimg.com/amplify_vid...vUVeDfXBDZO.mp4
Also on the Flemington program was last year's Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare in the 2600m William Newton VC Handicap. It didn't go great, with a 4.3L 5th placing and Jockey Craig Williams claiming after the race that the horse was 5 lengths off his best. His final 600m was 1 second slower than that achieved in his Cup victory, so that does sound about right. It was a genuine-run race though (only 0.42s off the 55 year old track record) so that was never going to suit Vow And Declare. They're now putting him away 'til Spring, as if the performance was terrible, but my thinking is that it was totally predictable given the conditions of the race. Taking out the win was OTI import Haky. He came out for last year's Cup but fell around 10 spots short of making the final field. In the meantime he's switched trainers to Archie Alexander, who has endeavoured to stop his kamikaze leading ways. Yesterday it worked a treat, as he held off Sin To Win to take home the nearly $60k prizemoney. Perhaps enthusiasm should be tempered somewhat however, as apparently Sin To Win is off to race a maiden hurdle during the Warrnambool carnival. Archie Alexander is realistic regarding Haky's chances, declaring that he's a good country Cups contender but likely a little below the Melbourne Cup standard. In other news, 2017 Cup Winner Rekindling is back in training with Joseph O'Brien. He was originally retired to stud but the now 6yo is responding well to his familiar Irish digs. He only raced the once following his Cup victory, finishing last in the 2019 Australian Cup. Yucatan is another Williams runner that has also made his way to the same O'Brien stable. Prince Of Arran's connections intend to return to Australia for the Spring carnival, but note that it's all up in the air due to the COVID-19 restrictions. Their horses are still in work as they anticipate getting only around 2 weeks' notice as to when racing resumes. When it does, it's likely to be under similar conditions as to how Australian racing is operating currently. |
Russian Camelot took out the SA Derby today in emphatic fashion, living up to all of the hype with a 2L victory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPXi9ONczbU.
For the bulk of the trip he was wide and without cover at the tail of the field. It's his 3rd win from 5 starts and while this race was reportedly his long-term target he had a few things go wrong with his preparation. First he was scratched at the barrier 5 weeks back when his gate didn't open, then 2 weeks ago he was scratched after he was found to have an inflamed throat. His last run was a BM64 over 1600m (which he won by 7 lengths) so it was a fair step up to the 2500m distance. Doubt over his prep likely inflated his odds somewhat and he jumped at $2.90. Russian Camelot is also a northern hemisphere 3yo so gave away 6 months' maturity to his rivals. His trainer Danny O'Brien is looking forward to Spring but is being coy regarding a tilt at the Melbourne Cup. That hasn't stopped wider speculation though and he's currently the equal second $15 favourite at Ladbroke's (with Surprise Baby and behind the $12 fave Master of Wine). There's also been some pie-in-the-sky thinking regarding him going back to the northern hemisphere for some racing... Northern Hemisphere racing is a bit of a mixed bag at present. German racing was back on Thursday with no crowds and even the jockeys wearing masks as they raced. They're reportedly not allowing any foreign runners until at least May 31st. French racing will resume this Monday behind closed doors despite word coming late last week that there was a risk it wouldn't go ahead. They're also not allowing foreign runners, this time until June 1st. The story is not as rosy in the UK with no firm resumption date as yet. The Government is announcing the next phase of their coronavirus response on Sunday and there's hope that they will give some guidance on the return of sport, including horse racing. If they do, then British Racing is ready to go: they've already published a program for the first 7 days of racing that will be put into action as soon as they know when they can kick it off. They also have a provisional plan for black-type races. The 3yo Classics are said to be the priority with the older-horse races slotted around them. Several of the fixtures lost in early Spring are hoped to be rescheduled from - best case scenario - the last two weeks of May; many others will be abandoned entirely though. You can find the list here: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/...race-programme/ The outlook in Ireland is pretty dire with news from the Government and Horse Racing Ireland that June 29th is the intended resumption date. HRI would like a concession to start earlier but there is little expectation that will occur and many have expressed their fears of the impact on the industry. Horse racing is, of course, far secondary to health concerns, especially in harder-hit Europe. It's interesting though what could be the repercussions on our big race later this year. |
Nominees and weights for this weekend's Andrew Ramsden: the race for a ballot exemption in the Melbourne Cup (and a $192k first prize).
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British Racing is now reckoning on a June 1st restart, following the UK government publishing a provisional timetable for the return of professional sport. That's just 2 weeks later than the best-case scenario they had been hoping for.
Apparently Russian Camelot was booked on a flight to England next week with the Epsom Derby as the target, per reporting in The Age last Sunday. The plan was to run first up over there and then be back again in time for the Australian Spring. British Racing have previously said that precedence will be given to the scheduling of 3yo races and have now announced that the plan is to run the Derby on July 4th (i.e. only 4 weeks later than the original date). Earlier this week the Epsom Council voted to allow the event to be held behind closed doors. It's likely all happening too late for Russian Camelot though. There's no announcement on when foreign raiders can race, for example, but they'll probably follow the lead of the other countries who initially forbade them upon their respective resumptions. Not to mention that there would be a $150k late nomination fee (139 horses remain engaged following the first scratchings deadline). Trainer Danny O'Brien has claimed the Melbourne Cup "is an obvious race" for Russian Camelot now. He hopes for a weight of 52kg or less and aims for only two more races ahead of the big dance. His futures odds have come into as low as $11 and he is now the favourite with some bookmakers. The first runner into the Cup though will be the winner of Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The market currently has it between 4, with the remaining 8 starters at $20 or longer. Race favourite is King of Leogrance @ $2.45. Too Close The Sun is $4.80, Oceanex is $5.50 and Dark Alley is $6.50. |
Oceanex is the first into the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
Here's the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqPI0WJLsRU Here are the full results:
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We don't know the race conditions (I guess they were only talking about moving the Spring carnival around just last week) but presuming that there is little change to the qualifying standards from previous years (and that any foreign horses are going to come to the Cup at all) a few notable races have been run overseas: Friday 5th June The Coronation Cup (G1) 2400m - https://youtu.be/4j7kND0Y5_w Ghaiyyath runs a BIG track record in the first Group 1 of British racing following the resumption. This is a serious racehorse, comfortably beating big guns Anthony Van Dyck, Stradivarius and Defoe. Given that it was within the first week of racing's return there was likely some fitness concerns over many starters but the race time cannot be argued with. Ghaiyyath has 7 wins from 10 starts is trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin. Saturday 6th June Betway Sagaro Stakes (G3) 3200m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1269264515390111746 Nayef Road showed good fight to hold off Mildenberger and Prince Of Arran. The lead bunch put a bit of a break on the rest of the field, which included Withhold (which came out last year, bled in the Geelong Cup and was scratched) and Ispolini (also scratched from the Melbourne Cup - along with Marmelo - when Racing Victoria busted out their new bone scanning machine). Wednesday 10th June Prix de Royaumont (G3) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1270717610519216128 Doubt we'll see any of these but Ebaiyra comfortably finished ahead of American Apples and Mozzarella. French racing is now allowing foreign runners. Friday 12th June Derby du Languedoc (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1271408154698489856 As above. Small field with Step By Step finishing on top. Sunday 14th June Betway Grand Cup Stakes (Listed) 2900m Unlikely to be back here again but Red Verdon won this race by 2L. He finished 8th in last year's Caulfield Cup and was then scratched from the Melbourne Cup when they found a bone issue. This was his second race back since then and in the first he was a 22L last; it's good he's now shown that he's returned to good order. Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (G2) 3000m San Huberto won ahead of Call The Wind, Get Shirty and Called To The Bar. Holdthasigreen was back there too. Prix De L'Avre (Listed) 2400m Unlikely to see any of these here. In Australia there have been a couple of qualifying races since the Andrew Ramsden: SA Fillies Classic (G3) 2500m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1261516419910365185 Realm Of Flowers and Silent Sovereign put a bit of a gap on the field in the final furlong. Regarding the winning So You Think filly her jockey in this race said: “To what level she can get to during the spring, I’m not sure, she’s probably going to be a lot better this time next year,” Thornton said. “She’s a big, raw, scopey filly that has to fill out a bit more yet but she’s on the up.” Winter Cup (Listed) 3200m - https://youtu.be/Rvw_DLEuFk4 Small field and a heavy track. Heavy track specialist Wu Gok took it out narrowly ahead of Carzoff and Yulong Prince. Tattersall's Cup (G3) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhXam78Voqo Brimham Rocks won this race 'cause I tipped it the one prior - I mean: now that he's up to his preferred race distance. Looks a decent show in this range on a Good surface but is more of a Country Cups contender than a shot in the big races. ...and that's it for qualifying races in Australia until the end of September! |
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The Melbourne Cup race conditions are still not out but there is now a timeline regarding nominations and such: Nominations close: noon, Thursday 27 August ($1,800) Late entries close: noon, Thursday 3 September ($5,500) First declarations: noon, Tuesday 29 September ($2,000) Second declaration: noon, Tuesday 13 October ($3,000) Third declaration: 10am, Monday 26 October ($4,000) Final declaration: 4:30pm, Saturday 31 October ($49,500) So it'll set you back over $60k to get your horse in the race (so long as it qualifies and makes the final field!). These are the same prices as last year's so it's just as well they haven't reduced the prizemoney (as announced last Tuesday). Presuming the splits are the same, so long as your horse finishes in the top 12 you'll earn at least $75k profit and anywhere up to around $3.7mil (not including trophies). |
I'm not convinced we'll get huge numbers of overseas runners so this all seems like a bit of a wasted effort, but here are some more results of foreign qualifying races in UK, France and Ireland (compared to the zero qualifying races held in Australia during this period...)
Tuesday 16th June Ribblesdale Stakes (G2) 2400m - https://www.attheraces.com/atrplaye...?showResult=yes Race Favourite Frankly Daring took out this race for 3yo fillies, showing some good speed in the final two furlongs to win by 2L. King Edward VII Stakes (G2) 2400m - https://www.attheraces.com/atrplaye...?showResult=yes Great ride by the jockey of Pyledriver @ $19. Found the split and the lead, then was challenged in the final furlong before winning by 2 lengths. One second faster than the fillies race above, held immediately prior. Wednesday 17th June Martin Molony Stakes (Listed) 2500m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1273319475148918788 Willie Mullins-trained Oriental Eagle wins by a length at $19. Thursday 18th June Ascot Gold Cup (G1) 4000m - https://www.attheraces.com/atrplaye...?showResult=yes Wow. Worth watching. Stradivarius makes it 3 in the row, winning by an incredible 10 lengths. Nayef Road and Cross Counter (a further 8L back) took out the minor placings. Prince of Arran and Withhold were also in the field. Friday 19th June Hardwicke Stakes (G2) 2400m - https://www.attheraces.com/atrplaye...?showResult=yes 4yo Mare Fanny Logan at $9.50 took it out, 2L ahead of the rest of the field which included last year's winner Defoe and Anthony Van Dyck. She gave them windburn over the final two furlongs and now has 5 wins from her 9 black-type starts. Queen's Vase (G2) 2800m - https://www.attheraces.com/atrplaye...?showResult=yes Santiago strung out the field in this 3yo race whose last few winners have included Hartnell, Stradivarius, Kew Gardens and Dashing Willoughby. Sunday 21st June Grand Prix de Lyon (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1274664597782433792 Styledargent wins but I doubt any of these would make the trip here. Saturday 27th June Irish Derby (G1) 2400m - https://www.racingtv.com/news/santi...ory-for-o-brien Santiago wins in driving rain on a quick back-up. He finished just ahead of his stablemate Tiger Moth, with the pair of them putting 5 lengths on the rest of the field. The first four were trained by Aidan O'Brien. Looks like he's headed to the Irish St Leger from here. Vintage Crop Stakes (G3) 2800m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0oNJKt0zMw Twilight Payment led for the duration and showed great toughness to win by 2L. Falcon Eight and Master of Reality were in the field too. Sunday 28th June Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) 2400m Small field ; none of whom we're likely to see here. Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4waZeAwxqM Another small field but featuring some far likelier candidates. Way To Paris won with Nagano Gold (whom I believe was a Czech runner they wanted to bring out here but couldn't make it workable with quarantine) second and Ziyad third. The first 3 were in a blanket finishing, putting on a bit of a gap to the remaining starters, which included Old Persian. Saturday 4th July Epsom Oaks (G1) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_utIhKxtcDc Frankly Darling was back for this 3yo fillies race but finished in third, totally smashed by Love - an Aidan O'Brien horse - who had 9 lengths on the rest of the field. This was run in a race record time, just ahead of Enable's 2017 effort. It was a quite unusual race with two runners putting on a huge gap early, so it's hard to judge whether it was fast entirely through ability or circumstance. Certainly an impressive race and she looked full of running. Could be a star. Epsom Derby (G1) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=healH2iS6U0 Gee, Aidan O'Brien has some good 3yos this year... Serpentine was at $26, did all the hard work himself and went on to win this colt's race by 5 lengths. The odds were so long on account of only winning his maiden (3rd career race) the week before. Both Love and Serpentine could be going to the Irish St Leger and/or the Arc. Sunday 5th July Henry II Stakes (G3) 3200m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBqvLekCwPs Dashing Willoughby beats Spanish Mission, the two of them putting on more than 10 lengths on Cross Counter and Withhold, all of it happening in the final 2 furlongs. His trainer Andrew Balding has declared that the Melbourne Cup is his target, reckoning he's done enough as it is to qualify. He's looking for another 2-mile race in England before hopefully making it down here; currently at $26 on sportsbet. Munster Oaks Stakes (G3) 2400m - https://youtu.be/W1rLdr0bU6M?t=285 Whaddaya know!? Aidan O'Brien wins an Irish race :O Race favourite Snow wins but I'm not sure any of these characters are likely to come. Tuesday 7th July Prix de l'Isle Briand (G3) 2400m Yeah, none of these would come. |
2020 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP
(160th of Series) 3200 Metres TUESDAY 3 NOVEMBER 2020 At FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA Prizes First - $4,400,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively Second - $1,100,000 Third - $550,000 Fourth - $350,000 Fifth - $230,000 Sixth - $160,000 Seventh - $160,000 Eighth - $160,000 Ninth - $160,000 Tenth - $160,000 Eleventh - $160,000 Twelfth - $160,000 For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows: Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5% Entries Entries close at 12 NOON on THURSDAY 27 AUGUST 2020. Fee - $1800. (Late Entries: Any horse not previously entered may be nominated before 12 NOON on THURSDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2020. Fee - $5,500.) Handicaps Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 8 SEPTEMBER 2020. Benchmark Weights: 3YO C&G 50.0kg; 3YO Filly 48.5kg NH 3YO C&G 56.5kg; NH 3YO Filly 55.0kg 4YO E&G 58.0kg; 4YO Mare 56.5kg 5YO+ E&G 59.5kg 5YO+ Mare 58.0kg Minimum Handicap Weight: 3YO 49.0kg 4YO&Up 50.0kg There is no maximum weight for this race. Minimum top weight of 58kg at the time of weights being released. There is no minimum top weight after acceptances. No allowances for apprentices. Weight Penalties The Handicapper can determine that, after declaration of weights, a subsequent winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race may carry additional weight. (It's only applicable for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m). Declarations of Acceptance There is now a third declaration ahead of final declarations. It now costs an additional $1,000 all-up, in comparison to last year. First Declaration: TUESDAY 29 SEPTEMBER (Fee: $2,000) Second Declaration: TUESDAY 13 OCTOBER (Fee: $3,000) Third Declaration: MONDAY 26 OCTOBER (Fee: $4,000) Final Declaration: SATURDAY 31 OCTOBER (Fee: $49,500) Any horse for which a declaration is not received is removed from the race. Rider Notification By 7.00 PM, SATURDAY 31 OCTOBER Ballot Exemptions - 2020 VRC The Andrew Ramsden - 2020 VRC The Bart Cummings - 2020 VRC Lexus Hotham Stakes - 2020 MVRC Cox Plate - 2020 MRC Caulfield Cup Relevant Race Performances A) since 1 February 2019 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further; OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the Queensland Oaks (2019 - Winning Ways, Dawson Diva, Lady Cuvee; 2020 - Cancelled), or B) since 1 February 2019 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR C) since 1 February 2019 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR D) since 1 February 2019 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK; 2019 - Mustajeer, Red Galileo, Desert Skyline; 2020 - TBH 22nd August) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK; 2019 - Exultant, Rise High, Dark Dream; 2020 - Exultant, Chefano, Furore), OR E) since 1 February 2019 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK; 2019 - Who Dares Wins; 2020 - Cancelled), Cesarewitch (UK; 2019 - Stratum; 2020 - TBH 10th October), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK; 2019 - Ho Ho Khan; 2020 - Chefano), OR F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2020 MRC Caulfield Cup (17th October), OR G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2020 MVRC Cox Plate (24th October), OR H) won the 2020 VRC TAB Turnbull Stakes (3rd October), OR I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2018 Melbourne Cup (Cross Counter, Marmelo, Prince Of Arran), OR J) won the 2018 Caulfield Cup (Best Solution) Ballot order will be - asides from those runners who are exempt - in descending weight figure. Those of equal weight will be ordered by aggregate prizemoney received in Relevant Race Performances since 1 February 2019 inclusive. Progressive order of entry lists will be available on a regular basis from Friday 11 September 2020. |
Number of qualifying races held in Australia since the last wrap-up: 0
There's been a fair few more overseas; well, in the UK, Ireland and France, anyway. The below might be a bit of a wasted effort on my part as space will be limited on the flight to Australia. Unlike previous years, just the one charter is making the journey, with half of the cargo to be horses making a one-way trip to local stables and the remaining 16 to maintain their international trainer. What sort of contingent can travel with the horse, if any, is the big questions - one trainer has reportedly already pulled the pin; though I'm not sure which one it is. The racing industry is currently lobbying the Government to streamline the process and they're working through the guidelines. It'll also no doubt depend on how things are going with coronavirus at the time. Thursday, 9th July Bahrain Trophy Stakes (G3) 2600m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1281220357215698944 Al Aasy snoozes at the rear, then takes the league comfortably in the final furlong of this race for 3yos. Dawn Rising and Al Dabaran round out the places. Princess of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes (G2) 2400m - https://www.racingtv.com/news/holli...rd-dame-malliot Dame Malliot finishes well ahead of Communique and Desert Encounter. Old Persian isn't having a good season, finishing about 10L back in 6th of the 7. It was one of the slower runnings of recent times but still, only slightly behind that of Fiorente's victory in 2012 - who, of course, would run 2nd to Green Moon in the Melbourne Cup of that year. Tuesday 14th July Prix dy Lys (G3) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1283011775986831362 Don't come last in this four-horse field and you've run a qualifying performance for the 2020 Melbourne Cup. Volkan Star, Ketil and Measure Of Time were the lucky non-last placers; though they're not likely to come. Prix de Malleret (G2) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1283022155475755008 A much more competitive field in the next race: this one had 5 starters. Vaucelles, Oriental Mystique and Mozzarella finish top 3. Prix Maurice De Nieuil (G2) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1283050387021402113 Red Verdon continues his celebration of returning to full health with another win. Only 4 starters in this race as well, which led to quite a slow pace. A little more quality though with Called To The Bar, San Huberto and Holdthasigreen finishing in that order. Red Verdon trailed the leader the whole way then took the lead in the final 3 furlongs, holding the rest of the field well. Thursday 16th July Nijinsky Stakes (Listed) 2400m Aidan O'Brien's Delphi leads the whole way, eventually wining this 3yo race by 4 lengths. Numen and Aunt Bee take the placings. Saturday 18th July Aphrodite Fillies' Stakes (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1284496907541372928 The grey Cabaletta edges out Lady G, both finishing over 2 lengths in front of Makawee. The winner here notably beat Frankly Darling in a maiden race a while back. Silver Cup Stakes (G3) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1284474513753767936 Eagles By Day showed good speed to hit the front late but didn't seem to want to put Communique away. The pair of them put 3 lengths on Universal Order. Curragh Cup (G2) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1284516306625204225 Impressive run by Twilight Payment, gapping the field, and winning his second consecutive Curragh Cup. Master Of Reality - his Joseph O'Brien stablemate - was runner-up but 8 lengths adrift. Third place Camphor was another 9 further back. Last year, Twilight Payment followed his Curragh Cup win with a 7th in the G1 Irish St Leger and an 11th in the Melbourne Cup. Lloyd and Nick Williams are in the ownership so it wouldn't be surprising to see both O'Brien runners back for another tilt, space on the single flight coming obliging. Irish Oaks (G1) 2400m - https://youtu.be/i__6jByL8cg Even So takes out this 3yo Fillies race. Cayenne Pepper and Passion headed in the final furlong and pushed to the minors. Tuesday, 21st July Prix Hubert Baguenault de Puchesse (Listed) - https://twitter.com/i/status/1285576261620858882 Close finish in a race from which we'll get no starters. Thursday, 23rd July Prix de Thiberville (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1286259561029140480 Unbeaten filly Valia takes out this race for 3yos, putting nearly 3 lengths on Wonderful Tonight and Padovana. Not at all likely. Friday, 24th July Prix Frederic de Lagrange (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1286642602801070081 5 runners in this 3yo race, Paix shows some good speed to pull away at the finish, followed by Mykiss and Control Tower. Saturday, 25th July King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1287034600066252805 Only 3 in it, so they all ran a Melbourne Cup Qualifying performance, even though the last placegetter was over 16 lengths behind the winner. That winner was Enable though, so it's not as bad as it sounds. It was a third win in this race for the wonder mare - in her fastest time yet - with Sovereign and Japan the other racers. Vintage Tipple Stakes (Listed) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1287018660280913920 Fillies' & Mares' race for 3 and 4yos. Kastasa wins, with Nan Yehi second and Traisha third. The three of them put a bit of a gap on the rest of the field. Tuesday, 28th July Goodwood Cup (G1) 3200m - https://youtu.be/AK03FwXYTaU Four straight wins to Stradivarius. Not too shabby... The top 5 in this race all qualified, the others being Nayef Road, Santiago, Eagles By Day, and Euchen Glen. Wouldn't mind Nayef Road out here: led for much of the race and held on well, only headed by a superstar. At least we'd get a genuinely run Cup; unlikely, but his trainer has been out here before. Thursday, 30th July Gordon Stakes (G3) 2400m - https://youtu.be/PF2nj6b6dys Aidan O'Brien wins this race for 3yo with Mogul. Highland Chief and Subjectivist round out the top 3. Nayef Road won this race last year, as did Cross Counter the year before. Friday, 31st July Queen's Plate (G3) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289212984468869120 Pablo Escobarr, Desert Encounter and Le Don De Vie with qualifying runs. Luth Enchantee Stakes (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289208073039511554 Pretty tight racing with Liberty London nudging out Edisa and Goderville. Surely not in the running. Saturday, 1st August Lillie Langtry Stakes (G2) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289652128512843777 Enbihaar makes it two wins off this race in a row. A comprehensive winner in this 3-horse race, easily accounting for Cabaletta and Snow. Chalice Stakes (Listed) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289567571105087489 Katara wins handily, ahead of Expressionism and Cosmic Princess. Further Flight Stakes (Listed) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289576631598641152 A familiar name in Withhold takes out this race comfortably with Dubious Affair and Vivid Diamond beating the only other runner home. Prix du Carrousel (Listed) 3000m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1289537172576632833 Get Shirty wins with Ashrun and Ghostwatch coming out ahead in a bunch finish for the minors. Ghostwatch was heading out here last year but was injured before boarding the plane, if I recall correctly. Get Shirty is 2 wins from 3 this season and his trainer has expressed an interest in shipping him to Australia for a tilt at the Cup, COVID restrictions obliging. His next race will be the Prix de Kergolay. Thursday, 6th August Ballyroan Stakes (G3) 2400m - Nickajack Cave edges out Fresnel and Mythical. Saturday, 8th August Prix Hocquart Longines (G2) 2500m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1292108555626196993 Port Guillaume wins comfortably with Ketil and Pao Alto doing the best in a bunch finished for the minors. Sunday, 9th August Prix Michel Houyvet (Listed) 2800m Just happened. Measure Of Time wins; Zeyrek 2nd and Manoucheer 3rd. Prix De Reux (G3) 2500m Runs in a few hours. Soft Light is the favourite with the next 4 all very close to each others' price. |
Cox Plate nominations came out last week. There hasn't been a huge impact on numbers following COVID. Only five entries less than last year, and the exact same number of Internationals. There wasn't much of a crossover with Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup fields in 2019, but it perhaps give some indication of which overseas trainers are likely to make the journey.
There are plenty of O'Briens among the nominations. Aside from Australia's Danny O'Brien, Aidan O'Brien holds 13 entries, Joseph O'Brien has 8 and Donnacha O'Brien has his first. The other Northern Hemisphere nominees are trained by Roger Charlton, Andrew Balding, Hughie Morrison, Antoine de Watrigant, Francis-Henri Graffard and Willie Mullins. Only local Godolphin runners. You can see the full list of nominations here: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...164b77d915.ashx Former Hungarian galloper Nancho, now with Anthony Cummings, is among them. It looks like he won 8 of his last 9 races in Hungary, then went to Germany for two Group victories (one at G3-level, the other a G1). At 1600m and above he is 12:10-2-0. Currently at $51 for the Cox Plate. He beat a pretty decent horse in that German Group 1 and seems to have a running style that would suit The Valley.... Looks to have a high enough handicap to make the final field (the German horse racing site gives him a 96 on their GAG scale, which I think equates to 112 - at least it does on an old conversion post I found). First acceptances for the Cox Plate are due 8th September. Current favourite is Russian Camelot. |
Here's the wrap of qualifying races held in Australia since last post:
...and now that that comprehensive report is over, let's cast our eyes overseas: Thursday 13th, August Vinnie Roe Stakes (Listed) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1293993489374552064 3yo filly Pista showed some good end-of-race pace to nab the win from Sun Chart and Dawn Patrol. Won her maiden at her second crack and then straight into this Listed race. Friday 14th, August Irish St Leger Trial Stakes (G3) 2800m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYG4A90azis Is the winner of this race, this year's northern hemisphere 3yo? Delphi leads the whole way, with Master of Reality just falling a nose shy on the line. This is Delphi's 4th straight win this season, following a middling run late last year in his only other career race. The race-time was pretty handy: quicker than any of Order of St George's run of 3-straight victories, and markedly faster than Southern France last year. The St Leger Stakes proper is the next target, held a week before quarantine must begin for any Melbourne Cup aspirants. A lot will become clearer then.... Saturday 15th, August Geoffrey Freer Stakes (G3) 2660m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ljkhSlEd9o Spread out at the finish with Hukum staying strongly ahead of Max Vega and Alignak. Hamada won this race a couple of years ago and came out that same season to Australia, where he was a leading contender for the Cup. Unfortunately he broke down at Werribee during his prep. Hukum's trainer has doubts he'd get much further distance, so unlikely. Sunday, 16th August Prix Minerve (G3) 2500m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1295016395743338497 Wonderful Only wins by 2 lengths ahead of Valia with Paix a narrow third. Heavy track, but still the slowest race time in the nearly 25 years it's been held over this course/distance. Tuesday, 18th August Criterium du Centre (G3) 2400m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1295776027709407232 Harmonie Star beats Harmonie Sainte, daylight 3rd in this 3yo race. The winner looks very decent, but little chance of coming here, you'd think. Wednesday, 19th August Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvZsH3z90Ok Pyledriver was a big winner (over Highland Chief and Mogul), running on well from the rear and putting some space on the rest. International Stakes (G1) 3200m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GC8eUdDp2Q All five of the contesting runners would qualify on the basis of this race. As noted previously, Ghaiyyath is a gun horse - now winning twice since first mentioned in dispatches. It's no secret though, jumping as a $2.30 favourite. Won comfortably by 3 lengths ahead of Magical, Lord North, Kameko, and Rose of Kildare. Thursday, 20th August Chester Stakes (Listed) 2900m - Spanish Mission pulls away late from Selino and Hereby. Newly transferred to trainer Andrew Balding, who has also nominated Kameko for the Cox Plate. Yorkshire Oaks (G1) 2400m - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poW0kj4ZRho Love wins by 5 lengths for Aidan O'Brien followed by Alpinista and One Voice. Love is nominated in shorter races next up, so they may think she's beyond her preferred distance range when outside of 3yo company. Galtres Stakes (Listed) 2400m - Gold Wand, Vivionn and Award Scheme take out the top 3 placings. The Ebor Cup is on this Saturday at York. The top 3 will pass the first ballot clause for the Melbourne Cup. Very close at the top of betting with a few runners of potential Australian interest. True Self has already nominated for the Cox Plate, hoping to see similar success as to when he won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last year. Pondus is a fellow Cox nominee and perhaps Ghostwatch will be aimed at either of our Cups. |
thanks for doing this research. I like to read it each year.
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2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling has retired. For a second time. He had returned to Ireland and was showing some promising signs of a return to racing but had an injury. He'll be going to stud; again. ...as will Yucatan
Keeping an eye overseas, there have been some important races this past weekend: Friday 21st, August Lonsdale Cup Stakes (G3) 3270m - https://youtu.be/tSc7EuTizMQ Max Dynamite won this race in 2015, ahead of his 2nd place to Prince of Penzance. This renewal was run in around the same time, though markedly slower than Stradivarius managed the previous two years. It was a pretty tepid pace, perhaps due to Nayef Road rearing at the start and coming out of the gates sideways; he likely would have been leading otherwise. Enbihaar takes out the race with Stratum and Nayef Road filling the minors; Dashing Willoughby was a close fourth placing. Stratum seems to be getting the most buzz of those though, after making a bit of ground in the final scramble to the line. Dashing Willoughby has been a definite attendee for a while now (after being purchased by a NZer with the Cup as a target). Having finished ahead of him, and having a trainer already intending on bringing a runner to Australia (Willie Mullins with True Self), the talk is loud regarding Stratum. Apparently they've since received assurances from handicapper Greg Carpenter that his rating will now have increased enough to pretty much assure a start in the Melbourne and/or Caulfield Cups. Saturday, 22nd August Ebor Handicap (Hcp) 2800m - https://youtu.be/bliPPxoMtKQ True Self didn't do so well in the Ebor Cup, though his connections are convinced it's a forgive-run after snoozing in the barriers. He missed the start badly and eventually finished 16th of the 21 starters. Pondus was another Cox Plate nominee contending and he did even worse, back in second last. At the pointy end was the favourite Fujaira Prince, whose owners have already said he's not of Melbourne Cup standard. Not sure what that says about Glencadam Glory and Verdana Blue, who were next across the line. The race time seems to think 'not much'; it was on Soft, but still one of the slowest runnings in the past 30-odd years. Sunday, 23rd August Prix Kergorlay (G2) 3000m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1297545194359926789 Call The Wind put up a very professional performance in his comfortable victory. Ashrun looked good at the death, while Windtoss snuck in for 3rd. Red Verdon didn't take the opportunity to continue his good form, being scratched at the barriers after refusing to load. Two other runners we may see down here participated: the Australian Bloodstock-owned Collide was a big early leader but didn't cause much of a stir in the chasing pack, who swallowed him up early in the straight; OTI's San Huberto has purchased a one-way ticket to Oz, but there wouldn't be much excitement following what he served up in his last place finish here... Prix De Pomone (G2) 2500m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1297553633295441920 Ebaiyra lead from go to woah, with Spirit of Appin and Grand Glory rounding out the top 3. Stanerra Stakes (G3) 2800m - https://twitter.com/i/status/1297609565895303170 Similar story for Passion, Traisha and Kastasa. There's been some Cup-relevant action in Australia with some of the local contenders resuming this past weekend. Verry Elleegant impressed in her win in the 1400m Winx Stakes; she's now 3rd favourite @ $18, behind Russian Camelot @ $11 and Surprise Baby @ $9. The weather at Moonee Valley wasn't all that impressive, with the latter part of last Saturday's program being cancelled. One of the abandoned races was being used as prep for many Cup aspirants, so it's been rescheduled to this weekend's Caulfield meeting. King of Leogrance (currently 4th favourite at $19) will be back in action here - among others (Young Rascal, Haky, Django Freeman, etc.); his last race was his second placing in the Andrew Ramsden. The winner of that race, Oceanex, will also be resuming on the same program, over a shorter trip of 1400m. Entries for the Melbourne Cup close this Thursday. |
The list of Melbourne Cup nominees is out: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...minations-final
174 horses entered this year, a rise of 22 on last year. 30 internationals have thrown their hat in the ring. Here are the nominees racing today:
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Results from the last few days:
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A couple of nominees running Tuesday and Wednesday:
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Results
Melbourne Cup nominees at non-Metro tracks are now 3w/3, 380% POT. Who's racing over the next few days?
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Results from Cup nominees these past two days:
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A few nominees set for starts tomorrow:
Melbourne Cup weights should be available in a couple of hours. Cox Plate first acceptances are also due by 12pm. |
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Can Pelonomena keep the run of non-metro winning nominees going? Would be nice at $16... Has won at the grade in the past and been contesting metro races with much higher prizemoney of late, including a trip to Sydney. |
Weights for the 2020 Melbourne Cup (ordered by handicap rating):
It's not taking into account whether the first ballot clause has been passed, nor the prizemoney attained from eligible races, but it gives you a rough idea of who would be where in an order of entry. |
Some results from overseas take a little longer to get uploaded. Don't know what the story is with the Toowoomba one, but I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere. It's a shame it didn't show up in the nominations for some reason, else I would have talked myself out of picking it in the tipping comp:
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First order of entry is here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-at-sept-9-2020
86 horses are yet to pass the first ballot clause (YTPFBC); of those only Arcadia Queen - depending on the prizemoney she wins - would jump directly into the top-24. Results from nominees the past couple of days:
Nominees running this weekend:
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The overseas results from the weekend are still to come, but here's how our local nominees went:
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Here are the latest overseas results for Cup nominees. Most notably, Tiger Moth earned a 2.5kg penalty for winning the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes (the large penalty on account of it only being his 4th career start). When the updated Order of Entry is released, this should see him move into 12th position. Nominees will have to head into quarantine within the next 48 hours to make the single flight, so we should soon hear who's going to be coming.
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New Order of Entry is out: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...69c6dd9d76.ashx
Regal Power and Delphi have been withdrawn. Tiger Moth jumps from 53rd in the order into the #12 spot vacated by Regal Power, following his 2.5kg penalty earned this past weekend. It looks like Selino may have been omitted by accident from the first Order of Entry out last week, but is only noted in 85th now and unlikely to come into calculations. In other news coming out: - Nancho (currently at 25th in the order) has been ruled out. Apparently he jarred up after his trial last month and won't recuperate in time for a Spring challenge. Trainer Anthony Cummings is confident he'll be back - and very competitive - next Autumn. - Three Irish jockeys have tested positive to coronavirus. This doesn't seem to have affected plans for Irish stable staff coming for the Spring carnival at this stage. Joseph O'Brien's staff, for example, will be flying to Sydney in the next day or two, spending two weeks in hotel quarantine, before road-tripping to Melbourne ahead of their charges' arrival on October 2nd. - Aidan O'Brien has reported that Cup topweight Anthony Van Dyck2, along with fellow nominees Tiger Moth12 and Santiago7, have entered quarantine; not locked in that they're coming yet, but that's obviously the first step in the process as they keep their options open. - Williams Racing/Joseph O'Brien have said that Master of Reality9, Twilight Payment11, Buckhurst20 and Pondus69 are coming. Patrick Sarsfield is another he's reportedly thinking of bringing, but he's yet to pass the first ballot clause. |
Had placed two 4 leg multi's using a $30 bonus bets that had basically already hit the first 3 legs on some AFL/NRL matches worth $20k and $13k respectively. Unfortunately the $20k one was for Nancho in the cup who is now ruled out and the other was for Port Guillaume who had a pretty poor showing on the weekend but sounds like he had some excuses.
Looking at the order of entry it appears there's a few at the top end that can get eliminated pretty quickly due to weight, age, gender and having competed in the cup previously. Any preliminary ones towards the top of the order of entry you like walkermac based on some of the elimination criteria or too early to throw some names up? |
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Speaking of, here are some nominees racing the next couple of days:
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Results from Cup nominees the past two days:
Nominees racing today and tomorrow:
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Today's results:
No nominees running tomorrow. |
Nominees racing the next couple of days:
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Results of Cup nominees these past two days:
Nominees running this weekend:
There are finally some qualifying races in Australia! Rosehill Race 2 on Saturday is a Group 3. Mornington Race 6 on the Sunday is Listed. Finish in the top 3 and you have yourself a qualifying performance. (All finishers can also earn a weight penalty and add prizemoney to their totals). |
The Order of Entry position noted is from last week, in the new Order a couple more have passed the first ballot clause:
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Any thoughts on how the early markets are being impacted by covid for the race? Are the visitors overpriced because of it on the anticipation they wont get here? Or are they underpriced because that hasn't been factored in?
Interested to hear your thoughts as this throws in another angle this year to disrupt the usual form lines. |
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There may be a bit of impact by the shortened Northern Hemisphere season (e.g. Master Of Reality is one run down on last season and the runs he did have were with a shorter recovery between) but how that would impact the odds would be an individual matter. What will probably happen is that there will be more visitors having a run in Australia this year. The first and only flight arrived nearly 2 weeks earlier than the final flight in 2019. They'll have an extra 2 and a bit weeks before the Cup once they're out of quarantine (on Caulfield Cup Day). The flight should be arriving in Melbourne right now. On board are: Anthony Van Dyck, Santiago, Prince of Arran, True Self, Buckhurst, Twilight Payment, Master of Reality, Tiger Moth, Stratum, and another 20 more; I can't spy a complete list anywhere. |
First acceptances were out for the Cup earlier this week. 79 nominees withdrew, leaving 94 in the running.
You can see he updated Order of Entry here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-2020.pdf?la=en. Second acceptances are due October 13th. One nominee ran tonight at Moonee Valley:
Tomorrow a ballot exemption is up for grabs in the Bart Cummings. The other placegetters will pass the first ballot clause (if they haven't already), as will the top 5 finishers in the Metropolitan. Here are all the nominees in action:
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Persan, who prior to today was yet pass the first ballot clause, wins the Bart Cummings and earns ballot exemption.
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