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-   -   3 Horses a race (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18905)

Benny 22nd May 2009 08:00 PM

3 Horses a race
 
My ratings top 3 is showing a 60% s.r. Now I want to make $200-$400 a week from my ratings.

What would you sugest.

Brendon 22nd May 2009 11:07 PM

I'm assuming you can get even money on average from these combined selections.

I'm assuming about 15 bets per week.

To make 300 per week at even money with about 15 races per week (45 horses total) you would need to be betting a total of about 100 dollars per race, take or give a good or bad week.

thorns 23rd May 2009 10:54 AM

First thing is, do they make a level stakes profit? If not then you will never make $300 a week. Even with a agressive staking plan, eventualy you'll hit a bad run.

If they do make a level stake profit, then from your results you should be able to work out how much is required to stake on each one.

Benny 23rd May 2009 07:07 PM

Yes
 
They have made a level stakes profit of $78 over the last 14 months. I'm going for a small profit of $20 betting on the top 3 . What sort of bank would i need. I rekcon at least $2000.

partypooper 24th May 2009 01:16 AM

G'day Benny,I'm convinced that the "Holy Grail" will come from someone like yourself, many searchers have "TOO MUCH INFORMATION"

But to try to help, I presume that $78 is at $1 stakes ? yes .....ok, so now we need to know the exact no of bets in that 14 months.

Example, lets say you have had 780 bets, then you have made 10% POT (profit on turnover) which by the way would be considered VERY good, in fact even if you have had 3-7,800 bets , so 1-2% POT, it is still acceptable if consistant over many many years. (ask any casino boss)

so anyway you could use just about any well known staking plan, and your profits will increase slightly (based entirely on POT) however, if your profits turn to loss, then it will also be compounded by any staking plan. as all you are actually doing with a staking plan is increasing stakes??

The moral, is of course just stick to level stakes.

Though, maybe a very conservative 1% of bank NEVER REDUCING is acceptable.

Now that can be implemented in two entirely different ways: i.e.

(1) LITERALLY 1% of whatever your bank stands at worked out at the begiining of every race day, say, your bank is $1000 so $10 staked on every selection for that day, re -calculate at the end of the day but do not bet less than $10 on each the next day.so your bets can increase BUT not decrease.

(2) say your bank stands at $1000, so you bet $10 per race \ 3 selections for that race so $3.30c on each, re-calculate iether at the end of the day or at the end of each race.etc etc etc.

Good luck!

Bhagwan 24th May 2009 02:22 AM

I would bet 50 + 25 +25 = 100
Bet the most on the shortest payer

Stop at the first collect for each day, whether in profit or not.

crash 24th May 2009 07:56 AM

I go the other way, bet the 50 on the longest player!

Brendon 24th May 2009 05:10 PM

Here is the results from a system I have refined to get only one winner from. The system usually gives me one, two, three and occasionally four horses. I have used some filters to give me only one horse per selected race. I don't bet on 2YOs much or 3YOs over longer distances, or races where most of the favorites have been up forever. This is from the last 9 week Saturday class Melb.


WINNERS
SELECTIONS

2 5

2 8

2 3

0 3

3 6

2 3

1 3

0 1
1 2
TOTAL 13 34 38%


Brendon 24th May 2009 05:14 PM

I usually do the picking myself with the 3 odd selections. As soon as I follow this refined way it will no longer work. What should I do? Not follow it and let it keep on working as is and look on in wonderment, or put a stop to it by putting money on it next week? LOL

crash 24th May 2009 05:29 PM

Put your money on! I think the most important thing in punting is to trust your own judgment. I assume you are a handicapper and not a system player [nothing wrong with systems if thats your bag]. Personally I never bet more than 2 horses a race as the overall odds become lousy and hard to beat and Dutch betting should stay in Holland!

Most importantly IMHO, be aware of too much [useless] handicapping info. I have found the KISS principal works best. Tried and true.


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