I see your point now Mark.
However, what I am really trying to get to I guess is how much is the bet that michaelg is taking on when he lays for a liability of $33

$1 = 1 unit each time OR does it vary?

Michaelg??

Cheers LG

Mark, not being too savvy with maths I don't know if I follow your explanation.

I always thought the liability and payout were one and the same thing when laying single selections on Betfair S.P. I can understand laying with bookies, but on Betfair only the payout is shown which I assume is also the layer's liability because that is the amount he loses/pays out if the selection wins the race.

Its all getting a bit complicated. If you have a maximum liability (like $33) THAT IS ALL YOU will pay out of your account regardless of the money taken in from the other party.

$34 horse - If the horse wins you pay out your liability of $33 and give the guy his $1 back.

$2 Horse - If you've decided to have a maximum liability of $33 on a horse at this price and it wins you pay out your liability of $33 but also have to give back the back bet that the other party would of placed which, in this case, happens to also be $33 making it $66 going into the other guys account ($33 of your money and his bet returned).

$10 Horse wins with a liability of $30. The backer would of had to place a $3.33 bet to win $30. You therefore have to pay him $30 from your account and his $3.33 back as well. If the horse loses you keep his $3.33 (less commission of course).

I hope this helps (and I hope its right).

Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.

There have now been 289 smiles from 294 selections for a profit of $65.31. My best day provided a profit of $65.76 so it's grounds to hope today might recoup most of the loss and not begin the road to despair.

Hi Michaelg.

Have been thinking about looking at lg1 / lg2 with your DS outsiders but this time apply them in the reverse. In other words, take out anything that can win. Not suggesting that it would eliminate all accidents, but it might help to reduce your risk.

What do you think?

Cheers LG

As an initial trial for lg1/2 trim, are you able to list the two accidents?

Cheers LG

The bad boys were:

Pakenham 1/2
Sun Coast 2/4

See above

Cheers LG

No alarm bells ringing when a 95% strike rate equals a bad day???

PS the 2nd race in Sun City was what one might refer to as a 'skin head' = there's going to be pain!

skinhead => lg1 and/or lg2 indicating that any of the selections can win

Cheers LG