Lay Don Scott's Outsiders
 

The rules I'm using:

1) $100-plus in D.S. market.
2) Didn't win at last start.
3) Not resuming at this or previous start.
4) Minimum of two career starts.
5) Placed 6th or worse at last start.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/1
5/9
6/1, 12
8/10

Caulfield
2/7
3/4
7/5

Eagle Farm
2/4
3/11
4/10
6/6, 10
7/10, 18

Morphetville
2/7
5/10
8/11, 13, 14

Hawkesbury
1/1
2/3
4/11
6/5

Gunnedah
1/4
3/9, 10, 11
4/10, 12
5/6, 10
6/1, 9, 11, 12, 13
7/8, 14

Wagga
1/8, 11, 12
3/6, 7, 11
4/4, 11
5/1, 11 13, 15
6/12, 13

Gold Coast
3/4
6/4, 5
7/6, 9, 10
8/5, 7

Toowoomba
1/1, 5
2/7, 8, 9
6/4, 5
7/3, 6

Cranbourne
2/8
5/7

Ascot
2/2, 3, 5, 7
4/3, 9
5/7, 10
7/10/12
8/7, 9.

There's quite a few selections at single prices in the Tele market.

Not a bad day - there were 73 smiles from the 74 selections for a profit of $47.58.

Today's selections:

Hobart
1/5, 15
2/4, 11, 14, 15
4/6
5/7
7/10, 12

Geraldton
1/7, 8, 10
2/5,15
3/2
4/2, 4, 6
5/2, 6, 9
6/1
7/5

Kembla
2/13
3/16, 17
4/4, 20
5/11
6/4, 6, 8, 16
7/11
8/10

Murray Bridge
1/5
3/1, 11
4/2, 10
5/5, 6
6/1
7/4, 8, 10, 11, 12
8/4, 6, 7, 14

Sun Coast
2/2, 3
4/5, 16
5/2
7/11
8/12

Queanbeyan
1/6
2/6, 7
4/11
5/4, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13 ,14
6/6, 11
7/2, 11

Swan Hill
1/7
4/2, 6, 10, 11
6/4, 7, 9, 12, 14
7/2, 9 14, 15

Wodonga
2/9
3/7
4/2, 3, 6, 7, 8
5/9
6/1, 3, 8
7/1, 12
8/10

Congrats michaelg. There's a heck of a lot of selections there. I hope it goes well for you.

Thanks, T.O.

Yesterday was a bad day, there were two accidents for a loss of about $45. However the method is still $25 in profit.

Over the past four days there's been four accidents. Two of them were horses that ran sixth at their last start, so from today the new filter is that it must have run seventh or worse at last start. And yesterday Swan Hill 6/7 showed in the Tele that it was not resuming from a spell yet it did so in the Unitab ratings, so also from today I'll look at Unitab when determining the "spell" factor.

If I had applied these filters from commencement then the profit would have been close to $80.

Todays selections:

Taree
2/2
3/4
4/1, 2, 4, 10
6/5, 11
7/2, 6, 10
8/6, 8, 11

Ararat
1/1, 2
2/2, 5, 7, 9, 12
3/16
4/7, 9, 12
6/8
7/4, 9, 11, 15

I've tightened one of the rules so that the selection must have finished seventh or worse at it's lat start. To compromise, I've relaxed two rules - the selection may have had a minimum of only one career start and the selection may also have resumed from a spell at it's previous start, even though I'll be monitoring them.

Surprisingly quite a few of today's selections are high in Unitab's ratings, Taree 8/6 has 100 Unitab points.

Not a bad day using the new rules. From the 30 selections there were 30 smiles for a profit of $30.93. The liability is no longer $30 but $33 which is more convenient to type especially when there are many selections.

Today's selections are:

Sale
2/2
3/5
4/2, 5
5/1, 3, 10
6/7, 9
8/6, 10

Cessnock
1/10, 15
3/5
4/5, 11, 16
5/5
6/2, 12
7/11

Lismore
2/5, 6, 7, 9, 10
3/2, 3, 12, 15, 18
4/7, 8, 10
5/12
6/9
7/13, 14, 15

Townsville
2/5
3/4, 15
6/7

Correction - Sale 8/10 is not a selection because it ran third at it's last start.

I'm glad I realised Sale 8/10 was not a selection - it won.

Today there was 41 selections for 41 smiles for a profit of $39.77

I've had problems with my phone/internet and can now list today's selections. There's already been six of them (all smiles) but won't record them because I didn't list them.

The selections not yet run are:

Warwick Farm
6/9, 11

Sandown
3/8, 9
6/10
7/13

Dombeen
4/5
5/5
6/1 (Tele fave) & 7
7/3, 5
8/6

Launceston
1/9, 14
2/1, 5
3/2, 5, 12
5/1
6/5, 6
7/13
8/4, 5

Balaklava
4/7
5/8, 10
7/5
8/1, 2, 5, 8

Bunbury
2/11, 16
3/3, 4, 5, 6 (Tele Fav), 8, 9, 10, 11, 16
4/8, 9,
5/5
6/10
7/2, 7
8/2, 5, 13, 14
9/14

A losing day - from the 55 selections there were 53 smiles for a loss of $0.95, but if I hadn't the earlier computer problems and was able to list the six selections I missed then there would have been a profit of $3.10.

From tomorrow I'm adding another filter - the minimum number of runners in a qualifying race is to be nine. There was an accident today in a field of seven (Balaklava R8) and there have also been one or two near misses.

I remember some time ago that someone here said the BRR ratings on the Worksheet are more accurate than the D.S. market. From tomorrow I'll also be laying and recording them privately to see if they are worthwhile. Today there would not have been any accidents.

Today's selections:

Pinjarra
2/5
3/7
4/12
5/6
7/8
9/1, 11
10/7, 12

Gosford
7/10
8/9, 14

Rocky
4/10
6/9
7/9

W'bool
8/4, 10

From the 17 selections there were 17 smiles for a profit of $14.26.

Today's selections:

Canterbury
2/11
3/9
7/10, 14

Moonee valley
6/3, 4, 5
7/2, 4, 10

Ipswich
1/5
2/4, 7, 11, 12
3/5, 7, 11
4/2
6/10, 11, 12
7/10, 13

Mornington
4/1, 10, 13
5/7, 9
6/8, 9
8/5, 10

Mt Barker
2/2, 4, 5, 11
5/7
6/8
7/6,12
8/4, 8

Mildura
5/5
6/10

Mudgee
5/1, 3
7/9

Nowra
1/5
2/1, 4, 6
4/17
5/5, 11
6/6, 12
7/3, 7, 8, 11, 12
8/2, 4

Post Lincoln
2/1, 6
3/7
4/6
6/4
7/6, 10, 13

I've made a serious error by not identifying one of the filters.

The correct selections for the balance of the races are:

Ipswich
4/2
6/10, 11, 12
7/10, 13

Mornington
6/9
8/5, 10

Mt barker
2/4, 5
7/12
8/4, 8

Mildura
5/5
6/10

Mudgee
5/1, 3
7/9

Nowra
5/5, 11
7/ 3, 7, 8, 11, 12
8/4

Pt Lincoln
2/1, 6
4/6
7/6, 13

Canterbury
3/9
7/14

Moonee Valley
6/3, 4, 5
7/2, 4, 10

There were 34 smiles from the 35 selections for a profit of $14.68.

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/10
7/8
8/1, 2

Caulfield
8/12

Eagle Farm
3/9
7/5, 13
8/9

Morphetville
4/9
7/12
8/6

Newcastle
5/9
6/10

Ballina
4/11, 13, 16
5/9, 12
6/11

Albury
1/9
2/6, 11, 13
3/9
5/5, 7, 9
6/4, 6, 13

Gold Coast
4/10
6/4
7/7
8/9

Toowoomba
1/10, 11
3/2, 4, 9
4/2, 9, 10

Ascot
8/1, 8, 13

It takes too long to prepare both systems.

I'm ending the original system even though it's slightly over $90 in profit after one week. I might revive it later.

The one I'm continuing with has been going only a few days but it is outperforming the original.

Today's selections:

Hawkesbury
5/1, 8, 9

Geelong
5/2, 11
8/8, 14

Wagga
1/7
2/3, 4, 5, 9, 12, 13
3/1, 14, 15, 16
4/7
5/4, 14
6/1
8/14

Sun Coast
1/16
2,1, 7
4/2, 5, 8, 9
5/11
6/3, 10, 11, 15

Mt Gambier
3/7
4/2, 3, 6, 9
7/12

Traralgon
2/3, 4, 6
6/1
8/1, 3

Devenport
3/3, 4, 7, 12, 14
4/7
5/7, 10, 11, 13
8/4, 12

Tatura
3/8
6/12

Bunbury
1/6, 9, 14
2/4, 7
5/1, 3, 10, 14
7/3, 7, 10
8/5, 11, 12

Not a bad day - there were 74 smiles from 74 selections for a profit of $63.76.

Very nice michaelg. :)

Yes, T.O. so far so good.

Today's selections:

Armidale
2/3, 10
3/12, 13
4/6
5/5, 10, 11, 13
6/9, 10
7/16

Narromine
3/2, 3, 10
4/9
5/10
7/13

Terang
2/3, 5
7/14

A bad day. From the 21 selections there was one accident - Narromine 3/2. Don Scott's market rated it at $100 yet it started the $3.00 fave - that's a worry!

Thought you were running with BRR Michael?

LG

I reckon the market will usually be closer to correct in this and similar circumstances, Michael. The ratings have missed something obvious, IMO.
A pro punter of my acquantance has a saying, "when the ratings and the market disagree wildly ignore the market at your peril".

Hi, L.G.

I'm running with the BRR but deleting the Form, Cond and Cons columns. It seems to be working at the moment.

Speedy Ben - I've layed quite a few selections that have been in the market but they were all smiles. However, what you say has much merit because it's generally accepted that the market is the best indicator. Because I often lay them as early as possible I don't know what their starting prices will be. I'll continue and hope for the best.

Today's selections:

Mackay
5/5

Taree
2/7, 8
3/16
5/1, 2, 6
6/11
7/5
8/9, 10, 13

Wangaratta
1/14
2/5, 7
3/1
4/5
6/9,10
8/3, 12

Wangaratta 1/14 has already been run, and was a smile. But because I couldn't list it before now I will not record it as a success.

I see (said the blind man)...

Cheers LG

From the 20 selections there were 20 smiles for a profit of $18.26.

:) x 20

Today's selections:

Canterbury
1/13
7/1

Strathalbyn
1/12
2/1, 2
4/7, 14
8/14

Dombeen
2/11
5/4, 5
6/8
8/14

Ascot
3/8, 10
4/9
6/2
7/2
8/7,11

Launceston
1/5, 9
2/4, 10
3/8, 13, 15
4/1, 11
6/7
7/11

There were 31 smiles from the 31 selections for a profit of $25.31.

How has that bank of yours been building since the large withdrawal Michaelg?

Cheers LG

Hi, L.G.

Unfortunately, it's not.

My Lay Outsiders and Lay the Field methods are doing well and my bank increases, but every now and then due to lack of self discipline I lay horses that "can't win" and eventually one of them does, and I have to start all over again.

Are you recording bets as you go?

LG

this lay approach will probably be OK;
these are the results for last years using 2 factors
1. DS>=100-1
2.2 starts or more

across every horse race covered by tatts bet since dec 2010
Values
starters # wins wsr wprofit wpot # plc psr plprofit plcPOT
172809 8340 5% -48683 -28% 28361 16% -44687 -26%

you would have to allow a bit more for the improved SP on BF - but there is plenty to play with at -28%

cheers
aussie

L.G. - I only record the bets layed on my systems, not the reckless ones even though most if not all, of my $10,000 profit came from them.

My Lay Outsiders is showing about a 25% POT (depends how one calculates POT on lay betting) and slightly over 100% POT on Lay the Field.

Aussielongboat, I'm somewhat uneasy, but not uninterested when we can identify a profit of approx 30% on Lay betting using TAB divvies. And at the moment I've got a full plate, that's (and lack of interest) probably the main reason I'm no longer looking at laying no.1 based on Unitab's ratings. There were six selections of them yesterday and all would have been smiles.

just as a clarification the results i published weren't unitab ratings =- they were filtered don scott prices taken from racing and sports

Thanks, Aussielongboat.

Today's selections are:

Goulburn
2/1
6/7, 11
7/5, 14
8/5, 7

Kyneton
3/12
4/6, 8
5/9, 10
8/1

Rocky
1/5, 8
7/3, 5, 13

Geraldton
2/2
3/3, 12
5/2, 10
6/6
7/7, 13, 14
8/1, 11

There are no scratchings shown on Unitab or NSWTAB for Geraldton so I have to assume there are none today.

Hi Michaelg,

Scratchings for Geraldton are

Race 7 - 4,14,15,16
Race 8 - 8

Thanks, Try.

Even Betfair loaded the scratchings before Unitab and NSWTAB listed them - shame,shame shame unless there was some internal problem out of both TABs control.