With my betting i will go with percentage of bank any time and i look at my profits as P.O.T and if i can make between 10% and 20% i am happy no matter how much i bet......i have seen lots of talk of a max drawdown is there a downloadable calculator for this some where or can you give me the formulat so i can make one......

Here you go Shaun and Mad Gambler -

http://home.iprimus.com.au/jfc2000/drawdown.htm


That's what you want. Run the simulation 25 times and you'll get an idea of what you can expect the maximum one to be.

Crash 'n' all, re: punting bank. You are correct crash, the bank is theoretical as far as the investments are concerned. In my case the "bank" IS available, but as a re-draw from my mortgage account. I would be total nut to keep that sort of money in a betting account or even in a cash management account.
They charge me $10 a month to keep the account open (as there is $0 balance) now, whether or not I would get cold feet after 25% of my bank dissappeared or 50% etc etc. Not sure, hope I never have to make that decision, but this where that drawdown figure is so important and especially timing, as if I'm losing previous winnings it's a hell of a lot different to a long losing stretch from a self funded bank.

But, make sure you have a "fig leaf" hee hee!

Spot on - the mental torture is unbelievable too :(

Can i run some figures and tell me what you think.


I have a method the produces 34.25% winners at an average price of $3.22 i ran this on that page and this is what i get

10.29 edge
-0.18 profit/loss
12.8 max drawdown
8 longest run of outs
i ran this over 100 times

well as for the longest outs i have had a run of 13 outs so thats a bit off there.

can you expalin what these meen i know what the edge is because that my P.O.T

Shaun how can the profit/loss be negative?

Maximum drawdown is the largest drop from a bank peak.

I must have done somthing wrong...i re ran the test

10.29% edge
3.04 profit/loss
18.48 max drawdown
13 longest run of outs
100 times


funny how i was just saying i had a 13 run of outs and in the nest test it gets the same

PSS go to that webpage and put in the numbers i have given 34.25% average price $3.22 100 times and press the simulate button a couple of times and watch the numbers change....strange how can this be accurate if they change in such a big way


Number of trials is that like number of selections

Take that as an example, Bank of $50k, bets of $1000 each (personally I would be betting only $500 with a $50k bank but still) so in theory the largest drawdown is $18,500.

So if the "bank" stood at say $60K+ b4 that drastic reduction, you may well be able to handle it, but if you lost $18,500 from a starting bank of $50k, I reckon you would need to double the "Coversil" tablets......

I play the safe game, and although it might cost me, the idea is to preserve the bank or at least some of the profit.

I stop betting if I've lost half my bank to reasses, or if I've doubled my bank, stop if half the profit goes.

Hi Shaun,

Chance of winning and Decimal odds I'm sure you've got right. Number of trials is the number of bets you want to simulate the system over. Maybe you could enter in the number of bets you expect to make over a year.

The edge is the profit you can expect from getting an expected divvy (as entered) every how ever many bets (chance of winning percentage as entered) this won't change how ever many bets coz you still should be winning at the same rate overall.

The simulator then runs a random number generator to see if you would have won or lost each bet in the number of trials you set.
The profit comes from the result of the random number generator allowing you how ever many wins from the number of bets you selected.
The maximum drawdown is the drop from your highest point (after a win probably) to your following lowest point. This is important because if you started betting on the day when your highest point had been reached you may have been unlucky and got to your lowest point before you started winning again. If the drawdown is bigger than your bank it's return to go, don't collect $200.
Longest run of outs is just that maximum number of consecutive lost bets.

Duritz suggested you run it a few times because rather like horse racing the random element can give you better or worse outcomes over the same number of bets. This gives you a range of likely maximum drawdowns and allows you to judge the percentage of your bank you feel like risking.

Hope this helps
KV