A boring way to profit 96% in 7 months.
 

This is going to be boring but had you done the following you would make a nice profit.

1. Check the betfair prices just before the jump for Harness and Racing on betfair.
2. If the betfair odds are $1.10 or less for the win you have a contender.
3. Check betfair place odds. If you can get $1.05 or higher then place the bet on the contender to place.
4. If you can't get $1.05 or higher then place the bet on NSW TAB as they have a minimum $1.04 return.
5. All up the selections for 20 wins with 30% of your bank bet.

Since August last year you would have had 45 selections with only 3 of these being placed on betfair at $1.05, $1.05 and $1.06. All others would have been placed at TAB for $1.04.

Assume bank is $1000 and you bet $300 for first bet you would have made $357 profit for first 2 selections. A profit of $484 for the second 20 selections and would be showing a profit of $121 so far for the third series.

Over 7 months your bank would have grown 96%.

I expect 120%+ over a year will be achiveable in good years and only around 50% in years where you hit a couple of losers.

I've read something like this before , only the selection process was different.

Instead of wiping out your Bank quickly , lets stretch the process so we can experience a slow lingering death.

Daddy Frog tried to explain what land was like to one of his child tadpoles.
I was listening , and it was exactly like what Daddy said , but tadpole just couldn't get it.

moeee,

Do you have results to back up this does'nt work ? So far all the results I have seen (including historical horse prices from betfair back several years) point to this working ?

why 20 all up?

why not 30? - or 40?
why not 10?

whats so magical about 20? - zero , thats what.

if there is no edge , there is nothing.

18 is where you double your money on a 1.04 bet all up. So to round it out to make it easier for maths I chose 20. So there is a reason. Its not magical. There is logic behind the decision.

You could go 40 or more if you wished but you have to choose some point so the double up point was chosen.

You go less if you want. At some point you need to choose the cut off point and weigh the risk vs the reward.

You shouldn't dismiss ideas because you don't like them unless you have results which show it doesn't work. The rules are very simple and anyone can backtest them through betfairs results service or could test them live.

Just because you and 95% of other punters don't like it, there are the few people which will like the ideas and will at least give them a go.

As I said if someone can show me figures which contradict my findings then I am happy to look over them and see where I got something wrong.

UB - Its not a matter of not liking it.

Mathematics and Probablity are not things that I enjoy messing with , but they are what they are.
Same with Gravity - you can try defying it , but I would not recommend jumping off a cliff.

Sorry to bother you.
I wish you success in your persuits.

So whats the complaint. The results have a 100% strike rate this year. So mathematics suggest this should work.

I totally agree with you Useless. A nice find!

UB
I think there might be a bug in your test a system.
Try backing place <$4
SPO >3
Would be good if it was true.

clive,

Looks like your right. I'll track down the issue and see whats causing it.