Example 1
Ethereal and Northerly
Ethereal ran 3rd to Northerly prior to Caulfield Cup win.

Points to consider
1. Distance was short of Ethereal's best.
2. Ethereal was aimed at Caul Cup, so improvement was still likely.
3. Northerly was ridden hands and heals by Oliver but in no way was the horse eased down.
Result - Ethereal won the Caulfield Cup


Example 2 - Jamaica Win and Miss Kournikova.
JW ran a fast finishing 3rd to MK.
Points to consider
1. Fast pace suited JW.
2. MK was eased down near the line.
3. Distance was within range for JW
4. JW was probably near its peak in that run.
Result - JW flopped at next couple of starts.

Conclusion - you have to treat formlines on an individual basis. Sometimes they flop, other times they are a good guide.

Yep, totally agree......and then you have races where you can draw a line through about four races to get there (any Group 1 for example). Which race is the best form guide? That's where the best value can often be obtained. It's like the straight six at flemington, do you want to bet on the horses running down the left or the right?

An all important question is "Does this horse have any improvement left in it? or did it peak in that run?"

Its always to better to back the horse on the way up rather than the way down. The
odds are a lot better on the way up as well.

You might spot a horse at 8/1 or 10/1 that is on the improve - you back it and it wins. Next start its 4/1 - you back it and it wins again. Next start its 2/1 & got more weight so you don't back it- it loses this time and some punters wonder what happened?????