A Profitable Angle
 

Since a lot of people like to use the neurals and the unitab ratings and the don scott ratings here is a profitable angle for you.


1. Top Unitab rating
2. Top NR rating
Loses 11% on unitab figures.

1. Top Unitab rating
2. Top NR rating
3. Barrier 5 or wider
Loses 4.1% on unitab figures.

1. Top Unitab rating
2. Top NR rating
3. Top Don Scott Final Rating
Loses 7.7% on unitab figures.

1. Top Unitab rating
2. Top NR rating
3. Top Don Scott Final Rating
4. Barrier 5 or wider
Loses 0.6% on unitab figures.

Remember these are unitab figures.

Now I reckon 50% of people reading this post will find these figures useful. 20% might actually bet it, 95% of those will give it away at the first losing run. Leaving us with 1% who will use it to make a profit.

Interesting that both angles are improved roughly 7% by the barrier filter,not one by 5% the other by 9 or anything like that,both by 7!

Barriers are one my most successful filters for most of my systems, both backing and laying.

What sort of turnover are you getting from those Wesmip? Many bets a day?

interesting to see the barriers have such an effect as i my opinion they are overrated as to a defining a nags chances of winning.

at some tracks being drawn inside or wide at certain distances can severely hinder a nags chances of saluting, but overall i place much more emphasis on the field size, track condition & the jockeys ability to overcome what is perceived as a bad barrier(not much trust involved there, lol).

those can be difficult elements to fit into a mechanical system tho

That's really good information wesmip1. I use a "stable" for betting purposes and I can recall analysing the form on a couple of occasions and deciding not to back one of my stable ..... DOH. I can also clearly recall one decent bet I had, against my better judgment on Swiss Ace a couple of years ago in The Oakleigh Plate when it drew "an impossible barrier" in a top race.

The "bad" barriers certainly improve the odds.

The "bad" barriers can also be a legitimate excuse, and often overlooked for a poor finish, and hence even more decent odds next start.

I back my stable no matter what these days ...............

I always thought the div from the R&S reflects the BRR and in fact matches the unitab ratings?

Hi Barrier as a filter has many variables. First being the course. Second being the distance. Third being field size. Fourth being surface condition. fifth being rail position. another factor is prevailing wind. A good jockey should overcome all these. Unfortunately some get boxed in. You will find that on some courses >barrier5 will be a winning factor whereas on another course it will make little difference. If you split the number of races to each of these variables then the sample will be too small to be objective. I remember reading that UK racing has a program that will give the value of a barrier for a distance and field size for the major courses. Some barrier draws are utter losers.
Regards Beton

Calling Shaun. Can you do that excel thing you do for the above wesmip1 winning system so we can list the picks and keep tabs on the winnings that will roll in?

I take it the Final Rating is the FR column on the R&S worksheet but I'm not sure. Is this right wesmip1?

I can then run it on my bot at the same time as the Ocho favs system and see what happens.

Not sure if people are picking up that its not about performance but how the inside barriers are overbet by all these tab legends and this creates a situation where the larger barrier numbers are over their true odds.

People dont like change,dont like using research to change opinions that have taken a lifetime to form,opinions that are often false.

Yes.

I wasn't going to give this one away but im being generous today:

1. Top CP rating
2. Top Don Scott Final Rating
3. Barrier 5 or wider

Profit on Unitab Prices = 2.6%.
Sample Size = 935

The profit on the above on betfair prices (assuming 5% commission) is 20%.

Why aim for 5% profit over 1000 bets (the so called professional profit) when its possible to pick up 20%.