Thanks crash. Now all I need is for another poster to say "Don't listen to crash! Put your money on and the sytem will fall apart. Keep watching it work without your money. Its fun to think the money you coulda made!" LOL

Seriously, you are right. I tend to get very involved with too much information, then I pull back and cut the filter sytem back as far as I can go. I have a minimum of four filters: horse's winning habits, jockey rating, class rating, and the horse's suitability to the particular race, ie at Sandown they need to run hard and finish strong, Moonee Valley fast around the tight bends with good acceleration (Kaphero?). What gets through those filters I have a serious lookat.

Two main filters to try & focus on to see if results can be improved.

.Distance.

.Number of runners.

Cheers.

Distance for me comes under suitability of the horse to the race.

Number of runners? I don't like fields over 16 or under 9. But that is just experience and if I really fancy a horses chances I tend to ignore it. I haven't really thought about the number of horses.

OK Brendon, cards on the table, FIRST I appologise if I was trying to tell me Granny how to blow eggs,..... if a fundamental question is asked I presume that the answer is not known by the instigator.

Now my direct question about the 74 bets (I think it was) was not to show anyone up but just to expose the fact that if the whole plan does not show a level stakes profit, you can hang from the chandalier with a 10 kg weight tied to the u know what, apply any staking plan known to man or alien and you will LOSE< LOSE< LOSE!

That's why they call me "Partypooper" cold hard facts, having said that I, as well as everyone else WANTS to be proven wrong!

Crash has been through the mill (I suspect) and knows that the holy grail is still very elusive!!

Mind you Chrome might have hit it with "just lay all late mail selections" big losses over time by backing em' so there you go!

Hi Party Pooper,

sorry, there is no secret to what I claimed about a 38% win rate from single picks. As I said, I use a minimum of four filters: horse's winning habits, jockey rating, class rating, and the horse's suitability to the particular race. I select a horse in a race where all the others fall away pretty quick: one horse left.

Quite often I get 2 or three horses, occasionally 4. I only take the ones where one horse is left. Once I never had a horse at one meet. And amazingly I got 7 at another.

And there is no secret. I have read posts here and most folk have their own rating sources for different criteria. One as good as another.

I have not even bet on this system yet. I usually pick one out of the multiple selections, and occasionally I even leave the one pick if I don't like the race. But going back on my figures I found the single picks quite good. I get every from $1.50 to $11.

G'Day Brendon, well you seem to be doing ok with this one, and as Crash suggested its a case of being comfortable with your own selection method/judgement. I am a self confessed whimp, and hate to lose so my main betting is place betting (very selective) though I do run several win plans along side as well but more modestly.

Its a funny thing, one can say well, as you have shown profit for 4 years + why not just increase stakes? well, I have done but have reached a level that is at the limit of what I feel comfortable with. And also I'm not sure at what point your bets are affecting the dividend (talking about place pools here)
especially at Provincial/country tracks?

Anyway, keep it up!

[QUOTE=partypooper]

Crash has been through the mill (I suspect) and knows that the holy grail is still very elusive!!

QUOTE]

I'm on the job Party!

Party, even a $100.00 does have a dramatic influence on the long shots, but in the range you are betting in, it's probably less. It all depends on the pool and the amount added to the pool.
There is a simple formula, used to be available from the TAB to see at a glance how your bet will affect the odds.

The biggest problem I see, is the people who follow price fluctuations, I had a place bet yesterday, when I put it on, the place odd was $2.80, sure I put on a fair amount, so it came down to $2.20. Still not too bad, but this is where the price jockeys come in. The horse finished paying $7.80 for win and $1.70 for the place, it came second or third can't remember I only bet for the place.
The point is, I would not have bet it at under $2.50 let alone $1.70.

In the lower price range it probably doesn't matter that much, I don't know.

You not only have to pick 'em you have to watch out for the hyenas coming in for the scraps of your labour.

Good luck

Punters 'following the money' ?

Okely Dokely.

Sandown
R2 Speedy Mac
R3 Deriasmes
R6 Tolka Rock
R7 Not A Copy

One of them should run a place, surely.