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-   -   Third up winners ... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31286)

Lord Greystoke 15th June 2017 08:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)


How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?

LG

demodocus 16th June 2017 07:53 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?LG

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4

Taking the SUM of the Last 2 Places to generate a WSR

2 ....... 20.35%
3 ....... 17.40%
4 ....... 16.17
5 ....... 15.28
6 ....... 14.02
7 ....... 13.29
8 ....... 12.40
9 ....... 11.44
10 ..... 10.46

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

demodocus 16th June 2017 08:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5 .......... 13.29
6 .......... 12.92
7 .......... 11.76
8 .......... 10.79
9 .......... 10.11

Time to take Mr Jack to the beach. Have a good day.

SpeedyBen 16th June 2017 01:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

A good lay system then. I'll get my bot to test it on that basis.

El Gordo 19th June 2017 08:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

SpeedyBen 26th June 2017 04:39 PM

Just the facts, Maam
 
Í've been testing this for about a week on all Oz races, including harness, and it has had 13 wins from 56 runners for a LS profit of about 20 units if you stick to those under 12.00.
Above 12.0 there have been 36 straight losses.
All divs are BF, of course.

Sands 16th July 2017 01:18 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites


Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gordo
Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

Good value can be got coupling up horse racing favourites (you may like) into sports events like golf, where those in the market can start at double figures odds.

kiwiz 2nd October 2017 05:23 AM

Happy Clapper,,winner Randwick,,looks like he qualified

kiwiz 2nd October 2017 05:53 AM

Booker,,winner Caulfield,,looks like she qualified

goldeee 3rd March 2018 10:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

Use a similar system with success, but look at last 4 runs before the spell for like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc


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