567 Plan
 

Hi All,

New Member here - first post!!

I have started looking at a system I have titled the 567 Plan.

Thought pattern behind this Plan was Horses that run in the placings last start tend to be overbet, so by looking at horses outside the placings, especially in the 5th, 6th and 7th places should throw up some value selections. By ensuring the horse have won its previous start on a Metropolitan track then we know the horse is in form, but may have been unlucky last start.

I did not know what results I was going to get but was very surprised when I delved back through the race results.

Rules are :-

1. Bet only Saturday Melbourne Metropolitan meeting (as this is where I am based)
2. Horse must have finished 5th, 6th or 7th last start
3. Horse must have won its second last start at a Melbourne Metropolitan track
4. Horse must not be resuming or 2nd up from a spell.

Unfortunately, I only have limited results from 04/08/07 which as anyone knows is nowhere enough data to predict long term profits.

Results so far have been encouraging

33 bets, 6 winners + 6 other places. Betting $10 eachway (Best Tote) win bank is $659.00, place bank is $64.00.

Winners have been Rubiscent $56.50, Gamble Me $19.40, Storm Signal $7.60, El Segundo $6.20, Zarita $7.40 and Divine Madonna $1.80. The first 2 are too good to be true but I would certainly settle on horses paying in the $6-$10 region!!

Is any one able to check back further to see if this is a potential money earner?

Look forward to some assistance and hope the "Pot of Gold" is just aroung the corner!

Try Try Again

(As you can see from my name I am eternally optimistic)

Welcome Try Try Again
Not a believer in any system that just skims the surface without some kind of individual performance rating consideration
But I'm sure others will disagree
Also sure other forumites can check back further to see if this is a potential money earner

Thanks for the welcome Westman,

Always looking for something that will throw up some long priced winners with a minimum of form study! Always worth considering when you see that formline in the fields for exotics etc.

Try Try Again

I would be wary of any system that showed profit over this Melbourne carnival. I would like to see a longer test period.

Try Try Again, it shows a 10.7% profit over nearly five years (best of NSW tab and SP) with most of the profit generated by a couple of $50+ winners. Maximum run of outs was 42. Betting all states showed a loss on T/O of 2.4%.

All those recent winners you quoted had raced 2,3 or 4 times since a spell.

************************************************** *****
RACE RULES:
include if Area = Metropolitan

include if Weekday = Saturday

include if State = VIC

HORSE RULES:

exclude if Spell Count between 0 and 1

FORM RULES:

include if FinPos last run between 5 and 7

include if State 2 runs ago = VIC

include if Area 2 runs ago = Metropolitan

include if FinPos 2 runs ago = 1

STATS RULES:

exclude if Career Starts = 0

**************

1/01/2003 to 8/11/2007

Spell Count Bets Wins WOut WRet WPrf W% WPOT

-------------------------------------------------------------

2 60 6 6000 6600 600 10 10.0

3 60 8 6000 6290 290 13 4.8

4 49 9 4900 10110 5210 18 106.3

5 45 4 4500 3240 -1260 8 -28.0

6 36 5 3600 2760 -840 13 -23.3

7 25 1 2500 620 -1880 4 -75.2

8 15 1 1500 5490 3990 6 266.0

9 12 1 1200 510 -690 8 -57.5

10 13 1 1300 490 -810 7 -62.3

11 7 1 700 220 -480 14 -68.6

12 5 1 500 650 150 20 30.0

13 5 0 500 0 -500 0 -100.0

14 1 0 100 0 -100 0 -100.0

16 1 0 100 0 -100 0 -100.0

>>> Totals >>> 334 38 33400 36980 3580 11 10.7

Thanks Wunfluova,

One might expect a better result if you took the best of the 3 totes or SP (if better than any of the 3 totes - e.g. Sportsbet).

The losing run of 42 would test most peoples patience and will. 10.7% POT over 5 years is not bad at all!

If you could re-run your program and put in that the horse must have had only 2, 3 or 4 runs from a spell how do the figures stand up then?

Your assistance is most appreciated

Try Try Again

Crash - I agree that it shouldn't be an elusive goal. 10.7% POT over 5 years is not to be sneezed at, especially seeing it it is with very little work!

Mathewg - Agree, that's why I have asked for help in checking the results further back than I can possibly check. Thanks Wunfluova!

Try Try Again

Wunfluova,

Sorry I sent the reply without really checking your response fully.

If you consider only horses that have had 2,3 or 4 starts since a spell (SSS) then you have had (in nearly 5 years) :-

169 bets returning (for $10 bets) $2300 for a profit of $610 and POT% = 36.09% which could be increased if you take best of 3 totes or SP with someone like Sportsbet or possibly some other agencies.

Very interesting!!!

Thanks for all your assistance

Try Try Again