| UselessBettor |
19th November 2017 11:51 AM |
Quote:
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Originally Posted by partypooper
nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.
And UB, what I was attempting to do (though I now see is probably impossible) was this:
Possible scenarios
(1) System 1 the nag loses but system 2 the nag wins (what %)
(2)System2 loses but system 1 wins (what %)
(3) Both system horses lose (what %)
Given that system 1 has 70% losing S/R (overall)
and system 2 has 95% losing S/R (overall)
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Ok so over 1000 races you will win on both selections roughly 65% which is 650 races(being a successful lay). You will lose at least 1 of the selecitons approx 350 races broken down into losing about 300 races and system 2 losing about 50 races.
But each individual race will have a different percentage. It could be much higher or much lower depending on the odds of the horses.
Always assume the odds are close to the real chance of the horses winning as the crowd is a better predictor on average then anyone else(including experts). You may be better then the crowd on one particular race but over all races they are much much better then any of us. |
