Formula 1
 

Hey guys, new to this forum but not new to betting or staking plans.

Wondering if there is any interest in Formula 1 betting here?
Pre-season testing you can find some excellent odds given the slow response from Australian agencies in particular. I find they are slower to respond to breaking news than those based in Europe/UK (as you may well expect).

For instance, was able to get Hamilton @$8 and Rosberg @$18 in February to win the World Driver's Championship. WDC favourite Vettel was very short at ~$2 given he'd won 4 on the trot.

Three races to go, mathematically there are only 3 drivers who can win the WDC. Realistically, only one of the two Mercedes drivers will win, Hamilton and Rosberg. Hamilton leads by 17 points (25 points for a win).

From combinations of agencies they are priced at:
1.35 Hamilton
4.00 Rosberg

Giving a 1% arb.

With Rosberg on pole in Austin, and Hamilton suffering from brake issues which may carry into the race, Nico has a good chance of closing the gap.

If Nico wins, expect the 4.00 to come in significantly.
If Hamilton wins I wouldn't expect too much movement.


Love to hear your thoughts.

Sorry double topic when I refreshed, could the mod please delete one of them.

After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg

Depending where you 'shop', you can get:
1.20 Hamilton
6.20 Rosberg

The Brazilian Grand Prix is this weekend, with the current forecast for a storm across all three days of the event.

Brazil is usually a chaotic race at the best of times, so in the wet with the current crop of high-torque F1 cars, we should see quite a few upset results.

There may be some excellent value bets for qualifying and the race.

I will make a final prediction after watching practice but except to see the unlikely Toro Rosso pair of Kvyat and Vergne punch about their weight in qualifying.

Hi Playlife,

GOOD to see another sport come to life here mate. Also one that i follow! I am a bit confused however. If the championship is still very much up for grabs if i have read you correct, why has Rosberg drifted out to 6.20 as per your earlier post today. It looks like its almost a 'done deal' with Hamilton a very short odds on fav??

Cheers LG

Well, if Hamilton has no mechanical problems, then he will almost certainly win. But that's a big if. You never know what can happen. He has been favourite pretty much all the way through. Even earlier in the year when Rosberg was leading, Hamilton was favourite.

Two things I am aware of here. Those two hate each other and when this happens the likelihood of one driver shunting another out of a race INCREASE. More so in the run home to the championship and irrespective of whether they are on the same 'team' or not, if there is such a concept in F1 these days?

If the odds on Rossberg continue to drift, might be a bit of value there I reckon. Nice thread Playlife and good spot Sportz!

Cheers LG

The real question here is will the turbo blow up?
Hamilton is an extremely aggressive driver, they all are I guess, but even when he was driving the V8's he was aggressive.
Turbos place so much strain on these smaller engines and cooling is a big factor.
Rain is another factor, could lead to a couple of safety cars.
I'd take the value on Nico.
I actually think that $1.20 is under the odds for Hamilton to win the WDC.
He'll probably win, but there's no value there.

As for love lost, Hamilton doesn't have a good relationship with Nico, but last year both Alonso and Webber, did not have a good relationship with Vettel.
I remember Alonso would not talk to Vettel at all.

The reason I think $1.20 is too short, is because there are too many variables.
Another driver could win either race and all Nico has to do is beat Hamilton in the placings.

There are some big changes coming next year team wise, should be very interesting. And this year has been a learning curve for the other teams.
I know Ferrari have been working a lot behind the scenes to change the whole setup for next year.

Rumours are flying around about Alonso starting his own team backed by a big gun. Alonso has nether confirmed nor denied this. We know what this means in the political arena ;)

Playlife, a big congratulations on securing those early odds, that was a gutsy move and looks like a huge overlay now!
$2.00 was way too short on Vettel considering the move from v8's to v6 turbos. Everything changes.

Thanks Lord Greystoke. Wasn't sure if anyone was keen on F1 but figured I'd post anyway on the off chance there were a few lurking about!

As Sportz said, Hamilton has effectively been the favourite ever seen it was clear that the Mercedes was miles ahead of the pack. With the pre-season testing clearly exposing Red Bull's massive engine issues with their Renault powerplant, I was very surprised they remained not only short but favourites still!

As Chrome Prince rightly pointed out, 1.20 is too short simply because of the number of things that can happen. All it takes is Lewis to DNF and they're effectively back on terms if Rosberg can win that race (with the best car, there's no reason he couldn't).

Further, the last race of the season is double points.
Worst case scenario for Hamilton:
*Brazil, Lewis wins and Rosberg DNFs. Lewis leads WDC by 49 points.
*Abu Dhabi, Rosberg wins and Lewis DNFs. Rosberg wins the WDC by 1 point!

Rain, reliability, plus numerous unknown factors (such as non-WDC contenders taking more liberties knowing that the Mercs will give way so as not to jeopardise DNF-ing) mean that despite the 24 point lead, Rosberg still has a decent chance.

Al Lewis has to do is finish 2nd to Nico in both races. But knowing Lewis, he won't do that at all, he'll try and win both.

Part of the reason for the 1.20 also is because Lewis has won 5 races on the trot. Realistically speaking the chances of him continuing the run become increasingly smaller surely (I know they're independent events but you know what I mean!).

Brazilian Grand Prix Forecast
Friday: Storm 31°C
Saturday: Storm 25°C
Sunday: Rain 21°C

The track is largely unforgiving, there is the strong possibility of hitting something hard if you go off so with wet conditions for the entire weekend, drivers will have to ensure they keep on the black stuff.

I agree, what about the stress on engine and gearbox, he has had some braking issues and electrical issues.
I wouldn't take $1.20 as a value bet.
If they change the engine or gearbox and he has to start from the pits, Nico can win for sure.
Nico made one mistake in USA in that he didn't adjust the downforce on his front wing like Hamilton did. That made a big difference.
At the rate the turbos are spinning, turbo failure is a big possibility, let alone the other components.

shame about the weather, the famous old Interlagos circuit usually produces phenomenal racing

F1 Brazilian Grand Prix
 

Final Positions after Qualifying:

1 Nico Rosberg (Ger) Mercedes GP
2 Lewis Hamilton (Gbr) Mercedes GP
3 Felipe Massa (Bra) Williams
4 Valtteri Bottas (Fin) Williams
5 Jenson Button (Gbr) McLaren
6 Sebastian Vettel (Ger) Red Bull
7 Kevin Magnussen (Den) McLaren
8 Fernando Alonso (Spa) Ferrari
9 Daniel Ricciardo (Aus) Red Bull
10 Kimi Raikkonen (Fin) Ferrari
11 Esteban Gutierrez (Mex) Sauber-Ferrari
12 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) Force India
13 Adrian Sutil (Ger) Sauber-Ferrari
14 Daniil Kvyat (Rus) Scuderia Toro Rosso
15 Romain Grosjean (Fra) Lotus F1 Team
16 Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra) Scuderia Toro Rosso
17 Sergio Perez (Mex) Force India
18 Pastor Maldonado (Ven) Lotus F1 Team

Very interesting to see the gap between Vettel and Ricciardo.

Daniel very disappointed with 9th, was hoping to be in the top 5

Needless to say, he will probably race with his cajones in his hands as usual and sling his red bull up as close to the lead as possible. Wouldn't put a podium past him in this one, Sands.

Cheers LG

Absolutely!

Looks like the rain came in the evening each day instead of during the day!

Current update shows a reduced 30% chance of rain for the race.

Nico topped every practice session and took pole position _just_. Lewis probably could have grabbed it if not for 2 mistakes in the last two of three corners.

Ricciardo has been struggling all weekend compared to Vettel, the latter being quite quick around Interlagos.
Historically Interlagos is one of, if not the worst circuit for him. Will be interesting to see if he can hold onto Nico.

Massa was a potential for pole - I'd think he, or team-mate Bottas, are a chance at splitting the Mercedes pair.

Brazilian GP: Final standings

1.Rosberg (Mercedes)
2.Hamilton (Mercedes)
3.Massa (Williams)
4.Button (McLaren)
5.Vettel (Red Bull)
6.Alonso (Ferrari)
7.Raikkonen (Ferrari)
8.Hülkenberg (Force India)
9.Magnussen (McLaren)
10.Bottas (Williams)

Daniel Ricciardo retired with suspension failure
Ricciardo battled on with a front-left suspension failure but pulled the pin on the 40th lap

Rosberg's triumph reduces Hamilton's lead in the championship from 24 points to 17 with one race remaining, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 23

That's quite an apt statement Sands as I think the pin that holds the knuckle of the upper wishbone gave way.

Abu Dhabi is double points, so Hamilton only has to run no worse than second to win the WDC. He's got to be $1.10 now with the bookies, but anything can happen in F1 considering how far he pushed the car and spun off.
Tyre choices and pitstop strategy will be critical. So worried about the turbo strain at this late stage.

Anyone who watched the race, I thought it was very poor form from Ferrari not to let Alonso through just because he's leaving next year. He was clearly faster than Kimi. Considering they told Schumacher to let his rival through a few years ago.

In other news Jules Bianchi remains in stable but critical condition in Japan unable to be moved back to Europe :(

It truly is a sad situation for Jules and his family/friends. I just can't see a good outcome :(


As for the Brazilian GP, I was surprised the Williams duo didn't have the same performance they showed in qualifying. Despite Massa's blunders he still managed to be best of the rest.

Lewis gave Nico a hard time but just couldn't get it done.

Despite Lewis leading by 17 points, we go into Abu Dhabi with almost the situation where each Merc driver needs to beat the other in the race. I'm sure Lewis doesn't want to qualify in P2 and risk the chance of a bonzai move from someone else taking liberties since they know he's vulnerable.

It's really shaping up to be a great finale!

So that Grand Finale this evening!

Rosberg on pole, Lewis qualified in 2nd.


WDC permutations

Lewis wins the WDC if:
1. Lewis finishes in the top 2.
2. Lewis finishes at least 5th if Rosberg doesn't win.
3. Lewis finishes at least 6th if Rosberg is not in the top 2.

Rosberg wins the WDC if:
1. Rosberg wins and Lewis does not finish 2nd.
2. Rosberg finishes 2nd if Lewis is 6th or lower.
3. Rosberg finishes at least 5th if Lewis is outside the points.


If Rosberg is:
- 1st, Lewis needs 2nd
- 2nd, Lewis needs 5th
- 3rd, Lewis needs 6th
- 4th, Lewis needs 8th
- 5th, Lewis needs 9th
- 6th, Lewis is Champion

Odds
~1.30 Hamilton
~4.00-4.30 Rosberg

Hey Sands,,did you hear
Bad lucky continuing for Ricciardo
Race stewards have ruled that the Red Bull cars had illegal front wing flaps
Relegated to the back of the grid
Daniel had originally qualified on the third row

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2014 Results
 

Pos Driver Car Team Grid Fastest Lap Race Time Points

1 Lewis Hamilton 44 Mercedes 2 1:45.599 1:39:02.619 50
2 Felipe Massa 19 Williams 4 1:44.826 +00:02.500 36
3 Valtteri Bottas 77 Williams 3 1:45.727 +00:28.800 30
4 Daniel Ricciardo 3 Red Bull 20 1:44.496 +00:37.200 24
5 Jenson Button 22 McLaren 6 1:46.739 +01:00.300 20
6 Nico Hulkenberg 27 Force India 12 1:45.777 +01:02.100 16
7 Sergio Perez 11 Force India 11 1:45.808 +01:11.000 12
8 Sebastian Vettel 1 Red Bull 19 1:45.552 +01:12.000 8
9 Fernando Alonso 14 Ferrari 8 1:47.424 +01:25.800 4
10 Kimi Raikkonen 7 Ferrari 7 1:47.736 +01:27.800 2
11 Kevin Magnussen 20 McLaren 9 1:46.824 +01:30.300 0
12 Jean-Eric Vergne 25 Toro Rosso 10 1:45.686 +01:31.900 0
13 Romain Grosjean 8 Lotus 18 1:47.897 lapped 0
14 Nico Rosberg 6 Mercedes 1 1:46.869 lapped 0
15 Esteban Gutierrez 21 Sauber 14 1:47.698 lapped 0
16 Adrian Sutil 99 Sauber 13 1:47.508 lapped 0
17 Will Stevens 46 Caterham 17 1:48.398 lapped 0
18 Kamui Kobayashi 10 Caterham 16 1:47.431 retired, 42 laps 0
19 Pastor Maldonado 13 Lotus 15 1:48.933 retired, 26 laps 0
20 Daniil Kvyat 26 Toro Rosso 5 1:48.748 retired, 14 laps 0

Overall standings Drivers
 

1. Lewis Hamilton (GBR) 384 pts - world champion
2. Nico Rosberg (GER) 317
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS) 238
4. Valtteri Bottas (FIN) 186
5. Sebastian Vettel (GER) 167
6. Fernando Alonso (ESP) 161
7. Felipe Massa (BRA) 134
8. Jenson Button (GBR) 126
9. Nico Hulkenberg (GER) 96
10. Sergio Perez (MEX) 59
11. Kevin Magnussen (DEN) 55
12. Kimi Raikkonen (FIN) 55
13. Jean-Eric Vergne (FRA) 22
14. Romain Grosjean (FRA) 8
15. Daniil Kvyat (RUS) 8
16. Pastor Maldonado (VEN) 2
17. Jules Bianchi (FRA) 2

Overall standings Constructors
 

1. Mercedes 701 pts
2. Red Bull 405
3. Williams 320
4. Ferrari 216
5. McLaren 181
6. Force India 155
7. Toro Rosso 30
8. Lotus 10
9. Marussia 2

Button saved McLaren's bacon, Force India almost stole that WCC position from them.

Congrats to Lewis.

Be interesting to see how testing goes in February, but I'd be surprised if anyone can catch the Mercs still.

F1 official testing will be starting in a few weeks time.

The first few days of testing can be misleading, but by the time of the second test then there could be some obvious pointers to the form expected for 2015.

I find the markets are slow to react to some obvious (well, obvious to the knowledgeable F1 fan!) trends and patterns.

Perfect example was getting BrawnGP @120 to win the Constructors Championship and Button to win the Drivers Championship @ 80 in 2009. Unfortunately I was too cautious and placed low stakes...

current odds
 

Formula One Drivers Championship 2015


Lewis Hamilton $1.77
Nico Rosberg $4.61
Sebastian Vettel $17.60
Daniel Ricciardo $19
Fernando Alonso $20
Jenson Button $34
Valtteri Bottas $41
Kimi Raikkonen $51
Felipe Massa $67
Daniil Kvyat $81
Others $300+

current odds
 

Formula One Constructors Championship 2015


Mercedes $1.25
Ferrari $17
McLaren $18.10
Red Bull $20
Williams $38
Others $200+

Schedule
 

The 2015 calendar:

15/03 Australia
29/03 Malaysia
05/04 Bahrain
19/04 China
10/05 Spain
24/05 Monaco
07/06 Canada
21/06 Austria
05/07 Britain
19/07 Germany *
26/07 Hungary
23/08 Belgium
06/09 Italy
20/09 Singapore
27/09 Japan
11/10 Russia
25/10 USA
01/11 Mexico
15/11 Brazil
29/11 Abu Dhabi

* contract with either Hockenheim or Nurburgring for the race on July 19, yet to be resolved

early market
 

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $2.25
Nico Rosberg $3.25
Sebastian Vettel $8
Daniel Ricciardo $12
Kimi Raikkonen $13
Fernando Alonso $26
Valtteri Bottas $26
Felipe Massa $34
Jenson Button $41
Daniil Kvyat $67
Others $150+

market update
 

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $2.10
Nico Rosberg $3.25
Sebastian Vettel $15.10
Valtteri Bottas $18
Daniel Ricciardo $19
Kimi Raikkonen $26
Felipe Massa $31
Jenson Button $101
Daniil Kvyat $101
Others $250+

Fernando Alonso Non-starter (on medical advice)

Valtteri Bottas $26 into $18

latest market
 

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $1.40
Nico Rosberg $4.10

Sebastian Vettel $29
Felipe Massa $31
Valtteri Bottas $41
Kimi Raikkonen $41
Daniel Ricciardo $81

Others $500+

Australian Grand Prix 2015 Result
 

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes-Mercedes 58 laps 1hr 31m 54.067s
2. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes-Mercedes +1.3s
3. Sebastian Vettel GER Ferrari-Ferrari +34.5s
4. Felipe Massa BRZ Williams-Mercedes +38.1s
5. Felipe Nasr BRZ Sauber-Ferrari +1m 35.1s
6. Daniel Ricciardo AUS Red Bull-Renault +1 lap
7. Nico Hulkenberg GER Force India-Mercedes +1 lap
8. Marcus Ericsson SWE Sauber-Ferrari +1 lap
9. Carlos Sainz Jr ESP Toro Rosso-Renault +1 lap
10. Sergio Perez MEX Force India-Mercedes +1 lap
11. Jenson Button GBR McLaren-Honda +2 laps

Fastest Laps
Rank Driver Car Fastest lap Gap On lap

1 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’30.945 50
2 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’31.092 0.147 47
3 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’31.426 0.481 36
4 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’31.457 0.512 52
5 Marcus Ericsson Sauber-Ferrari 1’31.560 0.615 51
6 Felipe Massa Williams-Mercedes 1’31.719 0.774 50
7 Sergio Perez Force India-Mercedes 1’31.959 1.014 46
8 Nico Hulkenberg Force India-Mercedes 1’31.970 1.025 48
9 Felipe Nasr Sauber-Ferrari 1’32.612 1.667 46
10 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull-Renault 1’32.797 1.852 46
11 Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso-Renault 1’32.872 1.927 49
12 Jenson Button McLaren-Honda 1’33.338 2.393 56
13 Max Verstappen Toro Rosso-Renault 1’34.295 3.350 30

Not Classified
Rtd Kimi Raikkonen FIN Ferrari-Ferrari 40 laps completed
Rtd Max Verstappen NED Toro Rosso-Renault 32 laps completed
Rtd Romain Grosjean FRA Lotus-Mercedes 0 laps completed
Rtd Pastor Maldonado VEN Lotus-Mercedes 0 laps completed

Did Not Start
Daniil Kvyat RUS Red Bull-Renault gearbox
Kevin Magnussen DEN McLaren-Honda engine
Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams-Mercedes back injury
Will Stevens GBR Manor-Ferrari did not qualify
Roberto Merhi ESP Manor-Ferrari did not qualify