My first system attempt
 

Okay so enough take and time to give.

I've been playing around with the 1st 5 favourites according the Newspaper the morning or the day before for years. I know there is a system there, I just have to find it. I am a probability person more so than a form or class person. So to speak!

I got some ideas for how to trim down my selections over the past few days since joining this forum. The S/R for each of the favourites are okay but not enough to sustain by themselves at a flat bet.

I used the Saturdays and Wednesdays of the past few weeks to begin with.

Here are the % S/R to win for each of the 1st 5:

1st 24%
2nd 14%
3rd 9%
4th 9%
5th 8%

I never like to bet on the 1st favourite because I don't like to bet in volume so a 1.30 win to me is next to useless compared to the risk. 2nd is often not much better.

The average wins over this same period is:

1st $3.46
2nd $5.16
3rd $8.36
4th $7.23
5th $14.41

3rd, 4th and 5th are much better average wins but by themselves, their S/R would kill me. So I looked at combining them.

Betting on 3rd, 4th and 5th would return 24% of the time. That gives me a S/R matching the favourites with potentially some bigger returns. On average the dividend split over 3 places betted upon, may not be much greater than the $3.46 but sometimes they can hit the roof.

So I decided to look into weighting the bets based on a total bet for each race of $10. So if 3rd favourite was listed as 11/2 and 4th was 7/1 and 5th was 8/1, the bets would be rounded up to be $4 on 3rd, $3 on 4th and $3 on 5th with the intent of either paying off all the outlay and returning a profit.

Applying this to my last few weeks of Sats and Weds I get 90 races which would have cost me $897 and returned $814 for a loss of $83. Pretty close. Now I just need to fine tune which races I ignore to increase my S/R on the ones that can really pull it off.

After fiddling around with the odds for each I settled upon this:

3rd fav has to be at least 6/1
4th fav has to be at least 8/1
5th fav has to be at least 10/1
drop any race that has a fav over 100/1 (optional as risk to reward ratio is too great to be ignored for that one off win)

So the new figures are:
Outlay $183
Return $370
Profit +$187

I am pretty happy with that even though the perfectionist inside of me says "is this the best I can find?"

I will leave this for a while and test it out. I may even pluck up the courage to drop selections in here each morning (never tried it on midweek meets but willing to check it out).

Feedback/ideas/flaming arrows?

I realise all is good in retrospect but the truth will come to light soon enough.

Try this

.Target the top 5 in Pre-post

.Compare their Pre-post price to Betchoices opening price (far LHS)

.Bet all of those 5 that have a shorter price on Betchoice when compared to Pre-post price.

.Bet these at 1.3 units

.The remainders of the 5 are bet at 1.0 unit.

.Don't touch races with odds-on Favs.

What you will find is the very high number of success from those that have the 1.3 units on them.

Your run of outs will be minimal.

Try & bet with Betfair for the stronger value.

Thanks mate. I will look into that as well.

Any tips on WHEN to check against Betchoice?

Why Betchoice? Does it give a good indication of market confidence?

Okay 1st selections:

My system:

BRDOOMBEN3	3, 6, 4	for 4, 3, 3 units
MRSANDOWN5	7, 6, 11	for 4, 3, 3 units

Outlay $20
Return
POI

Bagwan's suggestion:

BRDOOMBEN1	,4,,1,
BRDOOMBEN3	1,,,6,
BRDOOMBEN4	,3,,,
BRDOOMBEN6	,4,,8,
BRDOOMBEN7	,6,,3,
SRCANTERBURY1	8,,,11,
SRCANTERBURY3	,7,,,
SRCANTERBURY4	,,7,,
SRCANTERBURY6	,,,,8
SRCANTERBURY7	,4,,3,
MRSANDOWN1	,,2,,4
MRSANDOWN2	,,6,,
MRSANDOWN3	,,1,6,
MRSANDOWN4	,,9,1,5

Outlay $31.20 (24 selections at 1.3 units each)
Return
POI

I can't quite read it
 

My system:

BRDOOMBEN3 3, 6, 4 for 4, 3, 3 units
MRSANDOWN5 7, 6, 11 for 4, 3, 3 units

Is this how it goes?

Doomben Race 3
#3 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#4 3 Units

Sandown Race 5
#7 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#11 3 Units

Yes.

It's 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites weighted out based on their odds from the paper so either one will return a similar return.

Hi Max,

Good luck with your system.

A few questions

1. How do you decide between equal 5th favourites?
2. What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly?
3. Do you consider field size?

Interesting that you have Bhaggy's selections when Betchoice don't have prices up yet.

Try Try

1. How do you decide between equal 5th favourites? => If equal odds then I look at the recent starts
2. What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly? => I am using the Courier Mail because it is free for me most mornings and I am a set and forget sort of dude.
3. Do you consider field size? => no.

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Easy Mark! I am reading the screen wrong!

I'm a noob. I just went to the screen and assumed it was like TAB and looked at the column labelled Win Betting > Best Tote + SP. I am guessing this is the wrong column? he he

So what am I looking for on Betchoice website and when is the earliest to get it?