Betting Methods / Systems
 

Does anyone use more than one betting method/system?

I've developed about 7 in total in the past two years. Currently using 2. Will commence with 2 more next week.

These four are:
1. Method for 1000-2000m races.
2. Method for 2100m+ races
3. Roughies Method for all distances.
4. Trifecta Method using the above.

Dividing up races by distance is based on the idea that stayers have slightly different characteristics than sprinters/mid distance horses.

I have one main system for Win betting that I am currently using. I use this on both gallops and harness but have different rules for the harness races (so I don't know whether you would classify this as 2 systems or 1 system with 2 variations?). This one is showing consistant good profits :smile:

I also have a system for place betting that I am not currently betting on but tracking on paper. This system does show a profit (at level stakes) but is not as consistant or profitable as my main system so it needs a bit more work before I use it.

I am also working on a Quinella system but this is still in the early development stage - haven't started trialing it on paper yet.

One of the best systems EVER, is pick a stable of good credentialled horses. These horses must have wins at say OPEN and above class races.

You then follow these horses during their campaign.

I must say providing you select the right ones..and stick with them, you can make an absolute KILLING!!!

Especially when a horse runs 8 lengths behind a winner, due to interference and comes out next start at 12/1 and bolts in.

:grin:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-11 15:11 ]

Maybe you should have included Lovely Jubly in this "stable", rather than waiting for it to lose.

M&P did that - ran a great 8th in Epsom, replay showed it should have won - I backed it in the Caulfield CUP - won by half the straight at good odds - rest is history.

Chief, my post on Lovely Jubly was just about finding value....not knocking the horse's ability.

E.G. Sunline is not value at $1.30 the win.
Win or lose it just isn't value.

Should a horse lose showing odds-on it will take you two wins in a row to recoup losses at level stakes if it is odds on.

Therefore, there must be better value in the race, as sooner or later the HOT POT will lose.

Chief,

I definitely use more than just one betting method.

I use, simultaneously, 6 different systems (one purely for longshots) as well as my own ratings method and my personal "un-rated" assessments. All have been developed over a number of years. Record-keeping is the single biggest factor in improving punting performance and my record-keeping takes almost as much time as my selection process.

To show you the benefit of having a range of methods in your armoury, my 6 systems are ranging in profitability this calendar year from plus 77% to minus 22%. Three are winning, three are losing, but overall my systems are returning me 12.6 cents in the dollar profit on turnover.

My ratings method, during this time, is showing 16% P.O.T. and my personal assessments barely above water at plus 1.7%. Two of my systems are quinella systems and are returning me the greatest profits.

besides looking at the distance of the race you should also look at the class of the race. when I do my selections I look at different factors in 3 year old race to what I look for in a group 2 or group 1 race.also there are some races thaat i would not consider betting on ie 2 yo, hurdles, steeples, WFA and welter races, From my experience they are not good betting races

bet wise bet smart

WFA races are great to bet on - the best horse usually wins, unlike handicap races.
The Cox Plate is the easiest race on the calender to pick the winner - the best WFA horse wins its nearly every year.

The only winner in recent times that may not have been the best WFA horse was Dane Ripper and possibly Solvit - although I took the 20/1 because I could see it leading all the way to victory.

Last year I was amazed that people backed UP when it had little chance of winning at MV. Two years before, people did the same with TTK.

Don't discard the stable system too readily.

It works terrific!

1. You are betting that a horse will win this campaign, not a particular race.

2. The odds are a lot more in your favour.

3. You can get juicy odds when a horse comes up with a surprise win.


Two important points though...

1/ The horses must be quality horses.

2/ You must set a limit on the number of starts you are prepared to "carry" any horse for.

Finally...pick up any formguide (for metro racing) and look at every runner. You will see many quality runners have won either 1 or more races out of their last five starts.
Some at decent odds.

Would like to offer several points.
The "stable system" can be fun but don't rely on it as a moneymaker. The main flaw in it is that if you have correctly selected the "best of the best", you will end up punting on Group & Listed races, where you will have several, if not 3,4 or 5 of your stable horses running. It's guaranteed that the odds will be such that you'll lose if you back all of them.