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-   -   How the odds change (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6374)

Oaksnaf 13th November 2004 06:37 PM

I have been playing around on excel with odds etc and how much they change when you place a bet on them.

Eg: Pool 1902
Box/Odds
1 (17.90)
2 (40.20)
3 (40.20)
4 (37.00)
5 (27.60)
6 (8.20)
7 (2.60)
8 (2.00)

Now if you were to place a $25 dollar bet on #2 here would be the new odds
BOX/ODDS Pool 1927 Difference
1 (18.20) +.3
2 (25.20) -15
3 (41.00) +.8
4 (37.30) +.3
5 (27.80) +.2
6 (8.30) +.1
7 (2.60) +0
8 (2.00) +0

That is a lot of fluctuation. Since there is only a small amount of money with about 10 mins to go. eg:1902 then when it comes time to the race there can be between 4000-8000

So is there a stradegy to make yourself get better odds? Well i really have no idea but what i was wondering, was if you to bet $25-$100 would it be best to do it early as in 10mins before or later?
Well i was just thinking, and if you $50 on that #2 with 10mins to go, the odds would drop much more. These odds may not presuade the average mug punter to have a $1 bet on and may stop people from putting 2-5 as they are not getting the value they wanted.
Plus when most people see a dog at 40-1 they would say I'll throw a dollar on that. 100 people do it, and walla the odds drop considerably stopping any more people from putting those few dollars on. And the odds go out again. And when the big guns come in with 5 mins to go, its drifts out considerably and those $1-$10 dont make that much of a difference.

So what does this mean?? Well for me, I would rather back a longshot early so its odds drop stopping people of backing it. Then when the big money comes in it doesn;t matter.

As we all know, juicy odds are very persuasive no matter what the event. It can be called as a 'scare' tactic really, to scare of the mug punters from backing your dog, and going for the one at more juicy odds...... something to consider.

I haven't put it into practice, cause i dont have money to throw around. But it might work.... who knows.


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