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-   -   A system for those without a system. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22643)

lomaca 5th October 2011 04:23 PM

A system for those without a system.
 
When I ran my rating programme before the races, one of the tasks it performs is to look at jockeys with a single ride for the day.

I look at that list of jockeys, select the capable ones and look if their mounts are also capable of winning or placing.

If so then that is a bet, so far I have better than 40% S/R at better than $8.00 ave. div.

Today there are two bets, one M Rodd at Ballarrat race 6 already ran won at $16.70 and $4.10.

The next one is race 7 #5 TEL ONNAH B RAWILLER.

Even if he doesn't win or place I will have covered my next 14 win bets or next two place bets on this simple system.

I run this in conjunction with my rating.

I'm sure many of you are aware of this angle but I thought I remind those who don't know.

But beware it must be a good jockey who is prepared to travel for a single ride and the horse must be able to win, by that I don't mean it has to be a tip from the tipsters!
Actually I don't follow the tipsters at all, never even look at them, if you want tips, look at the odds, or follow the outsiders tipped by your fav tipster. Far more profitable.

moeee 5th October 2011 04:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
so far I have better than 40% S/R at better than $8.00 ave. div.


I would think your sample is quite small at the moment.
How many selections have you had so far?

lomaca 5th October 2011 04:57 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
I would think your sample is quite small at the moment.
How many selections have you had so far?
Moeee going back ten years or so would satisfy you?

lomaca 5th October 2011 05:04 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Moeee going back ten years or so would satisfy you?
Too late to edit but I wanted to add this:

You have a knack of asking questions that implies disbelief and lack in one's credibility.

Do you really think I dreamed this up today just to boast?

This is a well know angle, been around since races became more popular and widespread so that jocks had to travel.

The same applies to a certain degree to trainers who are taking their horses hundreds of miles from their stables in pursuit of suitable races.

moeee 5th October 2011 05:30 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
You have a knack of asking questions that implies disbelief and lack in one's credibility.


And you seem to take offense whenever you are questioned.
It won't happen again.

UselessBettor 5th October 2011 07:00 PM

Interesting angle. I might keep an eye on it.

Justg one question . What do you deem a good jockey ? Do you use premiership table or another rating ?

The Ocho 5th October 2011 07:16 PM

What rating program brings this sort of info up?

lomaca 5th October 2011 07:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
What rating program brings this sort of info up?
It is my own brew Ocho, but it is very easy and quick to find it on the supertab site too.
just go to the A-Z list on the left hand side, and click on the Jockeys opposite the race track and scan (fancy way of saying LOOK at it) it manually, same with trainers.

Takes about two minutes in all.

The important trick is to identify the capable jocks and then the horses.

You do not get many selections.

I have my favorites and sometimes they let me down but most of the time they don't, that is how I get such a good S/R.

Do not get carried away by single ride jocks, many times they only have a single ride because they aren't any good and have take what comes along.

lomaca 5th October 2011 07:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Interesting angle. I might keep an eye on it.

Justg one question . What do you deem a good jockey ? Do you use premiership table or another rating ?
I suppose you could follow the premiership table, no reason why not.

I make up my own list from week to week because Jockeys are like everyone, in and out of form, but I prefer a generally good jockey out of form against an ordinary one in form.

Sometimes when you listen to the race caller he will tell you AFTER the race that it was the only ride for the jockey on the track for the day!
Big help is it?

Just as I said before don't get carried away, a run of the mill jock will travel anywhere for the fee, for him, any fee is better than no fee, but M Rodd doesn't need a couple of hundred so badly that he would get out of the cot for one ride, if you get my drift?

beton 5th October 2011 08:21 PM

Another point to consider is the good trainer taking one horse to a meet at a track other than his normal area. Beton


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