First Starter Favourite Profits $$$
 

Hi Guys,

I have cottoned onto to something....first starters that are favourite with the bookies seem to have a very high strike rate. I read this in a book i purchased.

Long term I have not idea and was wandering if anyone knows what the long term strike and profit may be using IAS opening prices as the guide / rule?

I suspect the opening price favourite being the key measure because that's ultimately the bookies original opinion prior to the market fluctuations.

Anyone got any ideas or info around this?

When I was using this one long term I was getting around the 34 - 36 % strike rate although the prices were such that to bet each one wouldnt have made a long term profit.I only bet them if at some stage of the betting I could get $3 (not often)

Cheers
darky

Thanks Darky. I noticed in market forces it say start betting on this horse if first starter and favourite. They seem to get up quite often.

The stats here & over seas show that 1st starter Favs have the highest SR of all Favs.
33-36%

The next is Maiden races.
30-32%

The worst is Handicaps.
24-28%

They all show a level stakes loss if using TABs because of the 18.5% take which includes the over rounds.

Weird isn't it , the more disclosed form , the worse they perform which goes against what all form pundits proclaim in any rules that may arise, in the form of a system where they may say target the Fav , except delete all Maiden races & races where the Fav is having its first start.

It appears another Urban myth has been busted.

I feel its a field issue,the majority of races with first starters and maiden horses are those with less starters than the big field handicaps late in the day.

One of the things im doing at the moment is a study of pre post favorites,races with less than 8 starters have a high strike rate but lower pot than the other races,a big percentage of the races with less than 8 are maidens,2yo and 3yos.

Things arent always what they seem.

Its not as weird as how the average Family has 2.3 children, yet noy a single Family actually has 2.3 children.

You must understand that in Maiden Races, a lot of the animals have no possible chance, and in handicap Races, there are numerous winning chances.
Sop in handicaps and better quality Fields, the Favourites start at longer Odds.

The only way to align Favourites in particular Groups of Races is not by the number that win, but the P.O.T of backing them all at level stakes.

I figure the Profits,(read "Losses") , wil be similar , or perhaps biased more favourably to the better quality Races.

I feel they are all valid points & should be taken into consideration if one is

looking at stats .

When I say "No bet if first start" it would be that group showed a loss or a GREATER loss at level stakes. But also don't like buying a "pig in a poke" (spelling?)

heeeee , you said poke.

seniors moment, or was it Partypoopers Merlot Moment (PPM for short)