Son of Sam Simple 7 Lay System
 

Heres a devilishly fun lay selection plan that has shown a very high success rate so far.
Works for Horses, Dogs,Trots & Billy Goat racers.

SELECTION PLAN
.Target all races where there is a TAB No.7 running
If there is not a No.7 selection running, it becomes a no-bet race.

.Selection must of had a race where it ran 7th or worse at any of its prviouse 3 starts.

BET TO PRICE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN
Lay bet to price as to a fixed liability of 5% of bank.
e.g. Bank 500 @ 5% = $25 liability per race divided by selection's fractional odds.
e.g. $25 / 8/1 = $3.13 O/L
(8/1 fractional odds = $9.00)

.Use the Free Bet Trader Pro program to place bets under $6.00 with Betfair.

No form study & all bet liability is under control using betting plan as mentioned above.

It is strongly recommended not to attempt this, betting the same fixed dollar amount on all selections, one could get seriously burnt with just one outsider getting up against you..
e.g. if the selection is say 50/1 ($51) at $6 O/L & it wins instead of loosing you are up for $300 pay out liability.

Using above betting to price money management plan , the liability would only be $25 trying to win 50c ,which is also our O/L.

Remember to try & have fun with your punting... if its not...
Ring the punters help line & seek professional advice from people with white coats on ...
But dont ring me & bum me out, I hate that I do...

Cheers.

Bhagwan,
You do believe in abraca dabra don't you? This is unusual coming from you to advocate something daft as this.
Things must be bad!

Hi Baco,
Does that mean you like it?
Your right , I'm sorry.
I was going to give an indepth selection process using sectional times over different distances but I could sence peoples eyes start glazing over.
So I thought we would look at something simple.

I guess one could add some of there own favorite filters to try & make it stronger.

Now lets see your develishly clever replacement idea, my friend.

Cheers

Heres an observation that has a very high success rate.
There are whole meetings where not one of them gets up.

.Target No.7 if it is in barrier 9+

.Lay betting to price.

Cheers.

Results for Wed 5th Dec

Targeting TAB No.7 only from Barrier 9+

Betting to price.

There were 16 from 16 successes.

8 of the 16 were $10 & under.

One may like to put a max acceptable price one may wish work to
e.g. $10

Or you could try something like this.

Saturday races, lay every runner that has won less than 1 in 6, provided they have had at least 10 starts, and horses that are still maidens after 10 starts or more.

Last Saturday 3 winners from 77 runners. They average around 1 in 16.
(previous Saturday saw Satin Robes as a lay)

Weekdays, lay runners with a strike rate of 1 in 10 or worse. Same rules as above apply for maidens.

Yesterday 1 winner from 56 runners, and it was 5/1. Again, they average around 1 in 16.

So today's losers are..........

SC2 13
SC3 1,2,7,8
SC4 2,5
SC5 1,7,8,9
SC6 2,8,9,11,14
SC7 9,12,13,14

M2 1,2,4
M3 4
M5 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13
M6 6,10
M7 4,10,12

All care, no responsibility, etc

Mark

We concur on these.

I'll throw these into the pot

SC2 12
SC4 1
SC7 7

M3 1

Here's hoping :)

Thanks for your observations & input Mark.


Those stats look very interesting.

Lets see if one can make the wheels fall off .

A number will be at very high prices which is to be expected & this is where betting to price can be seen to advantage, without the fear of being serverely burnt if say a 50/1 shot decides to get up which may happen one day, maybe several on the one day, that's punting. So betting to price will reduce a savaging like this, to a bare minimum.

It might also be an idea to bet to a max of approx $16 if one is choosing to bet 0.5% of bank, flat amounts on all selections, seeing that its win SR is approx 1 in 16 = 6%
Which means we should have a 94% Lay seccess rate.

Well done again Mark.

Cheers.

Mark and Pixie,

But how do you get on? When the SC3 started, No. 8 was a lay at something like 100. No chance of being matched!?!?

And, Mark, neither had 10 starts (min requirement for a maiden?).