Can any one check this out a last start winner rated 100 on Qtab ratings what the strike rate of wins and places and the average divi

[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-02-20 02:08 ]

I'm a big fan of the Unitab 100 raters, but I'm not sure how well last start winners would go though. There might be too many of them and not enough value winners to make a profit. After all, last start winners are a very obvious way to go. With things like this, I like to go for the less obvious. Take this one for example:

1.At least 8 starters after scratchings
2.Horse must be the only 100 rater in the race after scratchings
3.Horse must be first up from a spell

There you go. That's it. In the last 3 months, that simple little plan has actually produced a 26% profit, including winners like Woburn 17.20, Point Cloates 13.00, Trigger 10.60 and Sportsman 17.40.

By the way, I've actually added just a couple more rules to that and come up with a neat little system which has produced 14 wins from 46 bets and a 101% profit.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-20 10:30 ]

Oh, I'm sorry. After all that I forgot to say that I could check out the last start winners for you, but I wouldn't really be able to do it any quicker than you. I'm sure someone else on here would be able to do it much faster. Perhaps they can help?

I did lots of research on last start winners and on the QTAB Shaun. I don't have solid figures but I can tell you that last start winners are more reliable as placegetters than winners. Also, last start winners tend to be at short odds because everyone is on to them.

In fact, most horses that go to the track never win a race. Lots win only one race. Fewer win two in a row. Fewer still three in a row. And if they are recurrent winners they are then overbacked. So as a group I decided that last start winners were not good to target, except as placegetters. The stats will show that LSWs are reliable placegetters. With most horses their last start win was a peak and they drop off from there. Also, last start winner stats are absolutely conditioned by days since last start. To get any meaningful stats you need to consider how long ago was the last start.

The QTAB 100 raters are, however, an excellent target group. (Great work Sportz! I love simple systems based on free ratings!) You'll find that 100 raters priced between, say, $8 and $12 do very, very well unfiltered. All 100 raters, of course, have too many shorties among them to yeild a profit. My conclusion with 100 raters is that in most cases you need a price filter of some sort.

Try the third RadioTab selection when rated 100 and the only 100 in the race. Goes OK, usually at a decent price.

Hermes

yeah shaun just backed quirindi rc 7 no 2 bold blush paid $5.30..

on that note you might have something there but if you do by a gun rent it to me and then i can shoot c.newitt.take it easy