Calling Vortech
 

I know you use Bet Selector and was/still analysing systems. Just thought I'd share something with you as i will no longer use this software so there is no reason for me not to share.

Over the last six months I was testing a rating method that was based on system rules. For example, if a horse passed a system rule it received 1 point. The more points the better. I found there was a very strong correllation between number of points and ROI at NSW div. You can construct this easily using the mycalc feature.

Some examples: Just come up with some system rules that you like/know that increase ROI.

4yo's only
geldings & mares only
Last start was 7 days ago
Between 2 and 5 runs from a spell
Top 6 in API rank
Barriers 5 to 24
At least 1kg below top weight

etc, etc

Run this test through your database. You will notice that the top figures have a very low ROI, and the lower the rating the greater the loss. You can then drill down further and enhance the rating by analysing the results. It turned a never adequate POT over my 5.5 yrs data, although patchy, each year was different. But return at BO4 would have been more than satisfactory.

Disclaimer: I only ever tested Sat metro results as thats the only time I get to bet. No idea if works at lesser meetings, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't.

I found it a very interesting exercise. It suggested that the more "ticks" a horse receives the better the long term chances of winning & ROI. This is despite the fact the rules may well be unrelated to each other. This certainly goes against the grain of a long held belief on this forum.

You can vary this to look at each state in isolation, rather than 1 universal method, whatever suits you.

This morning Ive had my 3rd laptop crash of the year, and have absolutely no intention of downloading the 5.5 yrs best form data for a 4th time, so I am giving up on this project and the software for good. It was an eye opening exercise however.

Some hints for those interested: Better Rating top rank definately gets a tick on Sat Metro, check it out. There are 3 weight rules that are worth exploring. On pacer last start usually gets a thumbs up as well.

I saved todays selections on a usb

Syd 3/9 1 unit

Mlb 1/10 1 unit
Mlb 7/6 3 units

Brs 1/2 0 units
Brs 1/5 1 unit (poor value race to back 1st & 2nd fave, so just 1 unit on the better price
Brs 4/5 3 units

WA 3/9 3 units
WA 6/9 2 units
WA 8/9 2 units

Nice work Raven

I have my past data on one machine and the fresh stuff with my systems on another.

I'll only update the old data each year

Yea I know I should back up and all that, and I didn't, so my fault.