TAB Selections
 

Does any one have any data or know where it could be found showing results of NSW TAB - Late Mail - Tipsters - SkyForm Best - selections?

Hendo,

I had all this information on my old pc. I didn't bother copying over that data to my new database though as I found it useless for me. From memory they all sat in the 10 - 15% loss using tatts figures and about 4%-8% loss using betfair figures.

There wasn't much difference between them.

Thanks UB. I was thinking laying all their picks but with betfair higher odds for laying plus commission it might not be such a good idea.

Hendo,

I can confirm that is a losing method. They do well enough and commission just eats into your profit and turns it into a loss.

There are a few with this info, but wouldn't be giving it away. There are a select few that do quite well by incorporating this data into their algorithms, so don't disregard it's worth!

The best course for you is to start collecting this data daily. If you lookup a thread called TM Ratings, Shaun built a bot to collect it. Not sure if it's still working, but it'd be a minor address issue. I wish I had of collected data as a matter of course, rather than trying to source it after the event. I'm about a week away from amassing 6 years Betfair data, very profitable stuff ;))

RP, you'll find massive changes over the 6 years.

CP, when you say "massive", what are you referring to?

I did a quick comparison:
8 horse gallops, 1st favourite

2009: Average 1st Fave winner nett Betfair back price = $2.58

Actual strike rate as dollars = $2.82....-9%

2014: Average 1st Fave winner nett Betfair back price = $2.56

Actual strike rate as dollars = $2.72...-6%

* Data based on Aus & NZ races, min $5k in Betfair pool at jump.

The strike rate has changed (only a 1 year mean for each sample) but prices stayed the same?

Well in the absence of a 'massive' reply, I'll digress a little and theorise that CP was addressing this question, "Has lay betting corrupted horse racing?"

Remember that arranging a horse to lose, is a lot easier than arranging one to win! With the advent of lay betting, profit can be made for such a result. It's a question often considered when a short priced odds on shot falls over?

Is there any evidence to be gleaned from recent history of implied strike rate vs actual, and comparing same with stats from pre Betfair?

I've just read a paper:

Have Betting Exchanges Corrupted Horse Racing?
Alasdair Brown∗ Fuyu Yang† University of East Anglia University of East Anglia
October 3, 2014

Makes for interesting reading, but for those who like to read the end of a book first, .........there was NO evidence to support such a notion.

Sorry RP, been flat chat at the moment, the strike rate and average price of favourites will always be pretty close over the years. I was more alluding to the impact of crossmatching, the liquidity on those less popular in the market, the lateness of punters having serious bets before the jump and the BFSP algorithm changes.

When traders were in the market before they left and went to the Purple site because of Premium Charges hikes, BFSP was a goldmine. (UK Racing).

There is an element of corruption in racing, BUT that is minimal and remains a constant. It's easy to label bad luck or poor judgement corruption, but in my opinion racing is cleaner now, than it ever was. There will always be that element to deal with, but it's not going to make a big difference over time.