The Betting Enigma
 

I've just seen the movie 'The Imitation Game' where the Brits are trying to work out how to break the German U boat enigma code and I was wondering whether, somehow, it would be possible to predict a certain outcome so as we have the odds of it occurring turn in our favour?

The betting enigma, to me, is that we know exactly how many 1st favourites, 2nd favourites, etc, will win in any given 100, 1000 races (i.e. 33% of 1st favs WILL win, 20%? of 2nd favs WILL win, etc) over a certain period of time HOWEVER the enigma (or dilemma) to me is that every race result will be random.

Kind of like tossing a coin here. Heads might come up 10 throws in a row. What are the chances of a head coming up again? 50/50 even though over a lot of throws the numbers will also be somewhere around 50% heads & 50% tails.

And with horse racing that 1.20 odds on pop SHOULD win and does most of the time but not all of the time.

So, can the enigma code be broken? Is it possible to predict the result of the next race based on the results of the previous races in timed order whether that be on that day, week or year or is it just random with the knowledge that the strike rates will prevail no matter how random it looks?

What do you think, code-breakers?

Of course it can be done.
Not by the way you envisage it though, by making use of random outcomes.

Those who do ratings, be it for arbing or win or place betting are taking a shortcut and cut out a lot of unproductive races.

I know precisely my strike rate, number of outs, number of consecutive wins etc. together with winning tracks and distances.
Once you know that, you are halfway ahead of the game.

Why do you think Mark for instance is only playing 20 to 30 races a day where he could easily play 50 to 100 even?

Simple, he worked out where he has an advantage, and so have others.

MichaelG only selects certain races for his lays and seems to prosper.

Trying to use the whole of available races and work out profitable outcomes based on statistics alone is futile. I don't think I need to spell out why? Just the TAB, bookie takeout destroys any chance of that.

Maybe not on a race to race basis but definitely over time.
My advice, and I'm only one amongst many, is to learn how to lay, and I mean lay properly. Not by some mechanical system, because horses are not machines, not one out, but lay proper books, put the odds in your favour, work at it, and reap the rewards. I have got to the point now where over time I know I will win, so this year I have been taking bigger risks where possible and not dwelling on any losses. This has been my best January ever and the results have been no different to any other month it's just that I'm betting bigger, and I'm by no stretch a big bettor.

Of course this is not the only way.

With your Bookmaking Mark, I don't know if you use any software aids or just work the Betfair page, but Bet Angel have a module designed just for bookmaking. It's not a system, just a cleaned up format that takes away a lot of superfluous stuff and places the bets instantly if your book request is matched. Might be a bit quicker, that's all? Screenshot:

$200 First Bet Refund - Get Better Odds!!


Lay a team to lose, back a player to win.
Lay a runner to lose or back a runner to win.
Choose your own odds.

I use Gruss.

How about this. Forget about single events - outcomes - predictions- odds and whether something happens or doesn't happen. Put your money on these two near certainties instead:

1. that the game itself will continue as long as we are human and
2. the house always wins.

Walk across to the other side of the table, put your money on these truisms re-occurring over the course of your lifetime (and beyond) and rake in a return of at least 5-10% pa for your efforts.

Simple.

Cheers LG


PS good movie that