Fitness
 

How do I tell if a horse is fit? If a horse has started in the last 21 days or between 14 and 21 days is it fit enough.

Benny

Read Barry Blakemore's "Fitness is the key". A good read, as per all his books.

But if you are referring to a horse in particular, please tell me which one!

How long is a peice of string Benny?

It is not only the number of days to its last run that matters, but also how many runs in this preparation it has had. Also, the distance it is running at.

Some broad guidelines are:

up to 1100m: Check to see how the horse has gone at its last two 1st/2nd up run. Days to last run are maybe not so important with the shorter distances, more a case of how hard a horse has had at a previous start and sometimes for this reason, a sprinter might need as least 21 days to recover, sometime longer as they can be flattened by too hard a run.

1200 to 1399m: Normally at least two runs in with the last run being within the last 21 days.

1400 to 1599m: Normally at least three runs in with the last being within the last 21 days.

1600 to 1999m: Normally at least four runs in with the last being within the last 14 days.

2000 to 2399m: Normally at least five runs in with the last being within the last 14 days.

2400m plus: Normally at least six runs in with the last being no longer than 14 days, but preferably 10 days or less.

However, you need to check to see how a horse has performed in the past as some may be able to move up in distance earlier in their prep than others - history tends to repest itself in this regard.

Also, some trainers are very good at moving their horses up in distance quicker than others. Gai Watehouse is one, who regularly runs her horses 2nd up in a perp with success, going up in distance 400m or more, ie. 1st up at 1400m with a 2nd up run at 1900m or 2000m.

Where would I find the book in question.

Benny

Here's an example

Flemington

In race 1
Glasnost has had 3 runs this prep. Her 1st run back she ran 6th btn a length over 1200m at Moone Valley on Feb 19.
At her 2nd run back she won at Moonee Valley again over 1200m on Mar 14.
At her last she ran 4th at Randwick over 1400m on Apr 2.

From the above infro I cannot decide if she is fit.

Benny

She's probably fit enough but if or not she is good enough is questionable as she is better at a slightly longer distance.

Horses with Glasnost's fitness patterns win approximately 8.3% of all 1300-1400m races. It has improving fitness due to the race spacings.

I think what you are looking for is in one of Blakemore's other books: "The secrets of Class, and other key factors"

The horse with the best fitness in that race is Breezy, followed by Kammoora and Temple of Isis. Horses with Breezy's fitness win approximately 17.2% of 1300-1400m races.

How do I establish a horse's best distance?

When a horse returns from a spell the trainer runs them in shorter race then step up to thier prefered distance.

With Glasnost her 3 runs so far are less thon 1400m. I'm assuming that her best distance is 1600m +

Benny

I would say at this stage 1600m is her ideal distance. She won 3rd up last year at Mornington on a slow track @ 1600m & then was found wanting @ her next start in Group 1 @ 1600m, being dropped back to 1400m on a heavy track @ Sandown & then won her next two @ 1500m & 1600m @ Moonee Valley on a five & then a nine day back-up, then spelled.

Not sure what Lee Freedman has in store for her this prep but I'd be looking for her to to back-up again next week @ 1600m (if there is a suitable race), possibly in Adelaide depending on how she runs tomorrow. Three of her five wins have been on short back-ups (9 days or less) while one of the others was 2nd up on a 23 day break this prep (which probably means her hard 1st up run flattened her when she led).