Systems Fear
 

A couple of posts here, including partypoopers, indicate to us all that good systems can run well for years then fall over. All the smarties on here say to develop a good system

• it has to be logical,
• have a few rules,
• and probably include a rule out of the 'square' so to speak,
• & there's no point doing what everyone else is doing for obvious reasons

Now I've got a decent system almost developed which incorporates the top two 'bullet' points, and one other rule that eliminates some contenders, but not others, if that makes any sense ..... race type based rules.

Am I wasting my time ?? The Rev. DD also said recently something along the lines of you're better off using systems for fun and putting you're money in the bank .....

Do systems have a 'life span' ..... Are we operating on a bed of 'shifting sands' (one poster might smile with that reference !!) ..... LSW 7 days with a couple of rule keeps popping up as a goodie, Ahjays systems was good, and many others using many years of data. Have these systems folded too ??

Would seriously love to hear comments.

Is this like the sharemarket in that once you've found the 'holy grail' so has everyone esle, and therefore, you lose again OR, do you find a logical method and continue with it in a discipined manner using a decent staking plan ??

Help ...................... please.

Find a logical method based on good ratings ala r+S /Unitab/Good form last 3 - 4 races in current campaign/Senior Jockey aboard etc
Go with 1st race Favs in the main (theres plenty of these each day) and STOP AT A WINNER.(If your 1st selection loses STOP FOR THE DAY)

Cheers

Another very good system ran 3rd in the "Best System In Australia " Competition run by PPM a few years ago.
A regular supply of winners - many at great prices.
I,ve already posted it in the forum some time ago.

Cheers

In a word..............Yes.

Barny

Anybody can come up with a system that at some point will make profits. The trick is knowing that all systems are disposable and all will eventually fail.

I think the answer is all systems have a lifespan, you need to constantly monitor this and decide when the time is right to make changes.

Mark is a numbers man so systems with always get a negative review by him, but he will also agree even what he does still requires monitoring and not all angles will continue in to the future.

Mark, remember way back with the first risk free system put up by yourself and Allanby?

It was the bookies that put an end to that one.

No matter what path you follow you must also be researching the next path.

Agree purely mechanical systems probably all end up in the bin at some stage - imho one cannot make a go of this game without paying attention to what is right before our very nose - the market. Ignore that at your peril;)

Agree with all the posts.
The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.
Even if you based a system around getting a better price than the lowest asessed price at r+s you,d have to do well in the longterm.

Unfortunately many punters go into this game undercapitalized.

Cheers
darky

The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.

Exactly Darky whether they be speed weight or class ratings.
Then the mechanical approach can start like,
Market position (odds)
Race type.
State.
Cntry metro prov
Track conditions.
Distance etc etc.

The problem starts when you use these factors,
And others to determine the selection criteria first,
Rather than second as profitable filters.

There is a company out there does actually have a couple,
That do make profits albeit it very small when last monitered,
By Punters Choice (Before they shutdown)

I believe this site still advertises them as being profitable.

Would love to list them but you know what will happen then.
T.O.U.

Cheers.

Boy oh boy!

Systems never work?
Systems can never have a long lifetime?

The problem is that most systems have too many rules, so you are relying on the results of exact filtered criteria to reproduce.
Added to this is that often the profit is gained from anomoly outsiders, so the chances of continued success are remote.

Systems do work, but they must be completely logical, there must be a specific reason for the parameters of the filter, not just "that's the band that's profitable".

Handicappers use systems, bookmakers use systems, they are ratings or market systems, they have to arrive at the ratings or prices via a set of rules.
The rules might be quite different to "forum rules", but they are a systematic approach.

Some of my systems have been going for twelve years and are still successful. Most of the systems I post on the forum are new ideas, or system tests, they are not the core systems I rely on day to day.
I'm always looking to value add to the systems in my toolbox.

I would say, I have developed the skill to be able to put most systems in the rubbish category just by looking at the rules and results.
Now and then I stumble onto a gem.

Possibly the most important skill is being able to identify the difference between a downward trend and a changing market.
But with each metamorphasis of the betting market comes new opportunities, that 5 years ago weren't there.

My advice is to find an approach that suits you, that's probably more important than the approach itself.
I've tried Mark's way and couldn't handle the sheer nature of it.
Tried The Ocho's trading and couldn't crack it.
That's not a criticism of them or their approaches, in fact I have great respect for anyone who can do it.
It just doesn't suit my style.

There are others who have one or two very large bets a week, again not me.

Find what you enjoy, what doesn't get you stressed, and do it as often as you can is my advice. These days with the odds advantages, unless you're undisciplined, you really can't do too much damage, unless you plough headlong into a losing system with staking plans ;)