Those who've read Neil's statistics might be surprised to learn that DiviPlus thrashes Top Fluctuation by 11% for $4.x shots.

Or that Odds On is the only group where TF beats DP.

Or that the overall premium for DP over TF is 19%.

Well judge for yourself.

Here is the ratio of DP/TF for winners of all IASBet Australian races since July 1, when IASBet was forced to provide "Universal DiviPlus". Grouped by "truncated SP".

This data is freely available so why not recalculate it for yourself, to see what errors I've made?

http://www.ozeform.com/site/racing_...ltsArchive.aspx

SP DP/TF   n

 1   96   38

 2  103   91

 3  106  127

 4  111  121

 5  117   70

 6  120   75

 7  118   59

 8  132   48

 9  128   32

10  137   24

11  143   18

12  136   12

13  133   18

14  127    5

15  148   15

16  186    6

17  203    8

18  155    2

19   84    2

20  121    3

21  151   17

26  235    6

31  147    3

41  135    3

Thanks for the link and statistics jfc, certainly something to consider for the future.

Hi. Thanks. It doesn't surprise me as I regularly check tote/bookmaker odds.

But our stats are for where the strongest bookmaker betting rings and best racing usually are - Saturdays in Melbourne and Sydney and for horses well in the betting markets in Melbourne and Sydney with a starting price of $5.50 or shorter.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-07-29 11:45 ]

JFC,

It might be interesting to look at Saturday Metro meetings only (and in particular MR/SR) as I think you will find that TF has more of an advantage there on the favourites. Also someone on this forum some time ago mentioned that the TF and SP quoted by IAS are not the official values but rather the SP is whatever IAS was offering at the jump and the TF is the highest IAS offered (and not necessarily the TF from the betting ring). Now I don't know whether this is true or not but you may want to investigate it further before you write off TF completely.