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-   -   Media Tipsters (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31588)

Chrome Prince 27th August 2017 01:02 PM

Media Tipsters
 
This is kind of a system if you follow media tipsters.
Unless I've made a mistake there is only one media tipster out of possibly 50 or more that is worth following.
Some of these gurus have had features made on them, which I watched.
But the harsh reality is that not one of them is in profit and their best bet of the day isn't either!
There is one fantastic tipster who used to tip over the Spring Carnival and I can't for the life of me understand why they dropped her, she now tips for racing.com for Hong Kong races.
Jenny Chapman.
Not sure what her profit is, but she consistently looks outside the box, goes against what others are tipping and comes up with some fantastic results.
I noticed even back in the 90's she was coming up with winners at very good odds.
Love to know her secret ;)

darkydog2002 27th August 2017 03:50 PM

Bet Pro is worth having a look at Chrome.

Cheers

thorns 28th August 2017 09:53 AM

So I got bored and did a wee exercise.
Using three freely available tipsters/ratings I ran an idea over this years Saturday Metro gallops.

When all 3 agreed: +31.19 (BFSP)
When two horses picked between the 3, backing both: +.87 (BFSP)
When all 3 chose separate horses, backing all 3: -90.08 (BFSP

The consensus pick performed very well, 13 losing days over this year out of 34, however only 5 of those being over a 1 unit loss. Worst losing day -4.92, best winning day +8.57.

Backing the two horses, rollercoaster ride to say the least, losing on 55% of the days, worst loss -16.32, best winning day +24.16

Backing all 3, 63% losing days, worst day -24, best day +9

Consensus rank, had only one losing month which was -2.57
2/3 has 4 losing month, and 3 had 7 losing months, and only a 3 unit profit in the winning month.


note: no commission taken from those figures.

Shaun 28th August 2017 11:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
So I got bored and did a wee exercise.
Using three freely available tipsters/ratings I ran an idea over this years Saturday Metro gallops.

When all 3 agreed: +31.19 (BFSP)
When two horses picked between the 3, backing both: +.87 (BFSP)
When all 3 chose separate horses, backing all 3: -90.08 (BFSP

The consensus pick performed very well, 13 losing days over this year out of 34, however only 5 of those being over a 1 unit loss. Worst losing day -4.92, best winning day +8.57.

Backing the two horses, rollercoaster ride to say the least, losing on 55% of the days, worst loss -16.32, best winning day +24.16

Backing all 3, 63% losing days, worst day -24, best day +9

Consensus rank, had only one losing month which was -2.57
2/3 has 4 losing month, and 3 had 7 losing months, and only a 3 unit profit in the winning month.


note: no commission taken from those figures.



I would be interested in how midweek stacks up.

thorns 28th August 2017 12:44 PM

Random Week (excluding Saturday)

A few of meetings dont have three tipsters, so left those ones out.

Consensus: +15.46
2 horses: -9.26
3 horses: 5.52

Also should have mentioned, the metro results were main metro Melb, Syd, Brisbance venues, not the smaller tracks that sometimes races in place when main tracks taking break for a weekend ie Sunshine Coast/Hawkesbury etc.

thorns 28th August 2017 12:53 PM

For interest sake, todays consensus picks:

Whanga R2-14
Coff R1-1
Dubbo R4-6
Dubbo R6-3
Coff R6-4
Coff R7-2
Dubbo R8-2

darkydog2002 28th August 2017 01:55 PM

Thanks Thorns.

Always liked coinciders.

Generally reflect a horses chances in my opinion.

Cheers.

thorns 28th August 2017 04:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
For interest sake, todays consensus picks:

Whanga R2-14
Coff R1-1
Dubbo R4-6
Dubbo R6-3
Coff R6-4
Coff R7-2
Dubbo R8-2
Win:
Out 7
In 4.91

6 from 7 placegetters

Chrome Prince 28th August 2017 10:11 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
So I got bored and did a wee exercise.
Using three freely available tipsters/ratings I ran an idea over this years Saturday Metro gallops.

When all 3 agreed: +31.19 (BFSP)
When two horses picked between the 3, backing both: +.87 (BFSP)
When all 3 chose separate horses, backing all 3: -90.08 (BFSP

The consensus pick performed very well, 13 losing days over this year out of 34, however only 5 of those being over a 1 unit loss. Worst losing day -4.92, best winning day +8.57.

Backing the two horses, rollercoaster ride to say the least, losing on 55% of the days, worst loss -16.32, best winning day +24.16

Backing all 3, 63% losing days, worst day -24, best day +9

Consensus rank, had only one losing month which was -2.57
2/3 has 4 losing month, and 3 had 7 losing months, and only a 3 unit profit in the winning month.


note: no commission taken from those figures.


Interesting results Thorns, however, after commission would it be breakeven or worse? Each individual tipster how did they fair?
How did the consensus perform when the horse wasn't the obvious Joe public favourite?

partypooper 28th August 2017 11:46 PM

My 2 cents, I've never seen in mmmmm, lets see at least 54 years, any tipster that made a consistent profit at level stakes (and I've seen no evidence that backing to price , even the BEST possible price) that showed a profit, BUT, don't forget that is what was shown publicly, maybe their private betting showed a much different result, ... I suspect Darren Macaulay in Perth to be one of those!

The nearest I've seen to a profit "The Most Popular Selection" backed at the best possible price "early" but alas, that had been eroded recently ,... but has now been resurected with the advent of "points" wink wink!


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