Your Thoughts Readers, please...
 

Hi,

I've been punting for many years and have my ups and downs, as do most..

Often been interested in finetuning my betting side... (the form side does ok)

Can anyone throw some light on wether Proportional Betting is better than straight out betting?

My Definitions, so we don't get sidetracked on to missundestandings..

Proportional betting is when you vary the size of your bet in accordance with the odds (value) you can get, and comes in two forms..

(1) Proportional betting (A) : A target amount divided by the available odds e.g. $100 / $2.50 = a bet of $40 to return you $100 if sucessfull (including your stake)

and
(2) Proportional betting (B): A target amount divided by the available odds-1 e.g. $100 / ($2.50 -$1.00) = a bet of $67 to return you $167 if sucessfull ($100.00 clear profit)

(3) Straight out betting say I have $40 to bet with (some porportion of my bank) so I bet it on the best price I can get, say its $2.50, or $3.00 I don't alter the stake just bet the whole $40.00


So readers, who thinks method 1,2, or 3 will be better of in the long term, given the average run of wins and loses you might expect? And who would have the least heart ache when a losing day or two is struck?

Love to hear some lively discussion on this, it poses a very interesting question don't you think?

Regards
OzPunter

Ozpunter
 

For me definitely Method 1.

darky.

And your logic for saying this Mr. darky is?


OzPunter

I just like betting to my asessed price.

In your 6/4 example $2.50 = $40 then anything at this price or better would still have $40 placed on it.
If the bookie offered me 10/1 I would win $400.
A very simple,easy, and good way to keep track of your staking in my opinion.

Thats just what I would do.Everyone would have a different opinion.

Cheers.
darky

Sorry to keep you out of bed, but your last creates another question... Can you explain your logic behind how you create your own prices... I've tried it using the figures I handicap to and I get silly results, so how do you go about it... Just the concept and logic, I'm not probing for your formulas..


To clarify your responce to the last, you are saying that you create your own prices and then proportional bet to those prices? not the market on offer.. If your assesment is correct and you only bet when you have an overlay you'll make heaps...(providing your assesment is accurate of course)


Regards

OzPunter

Hi Oz,,,got some interesting advice from a full time punter ..

He stakes depending on how much his top rater is ahead of the next rated horse,,
example..
Black Ink 2.80
Sir Monashee 5.5
Foxmore 6.20
Black Suit 8.50

his top rater is 2.7 ahead of the next rater ..he would then have a scale
1.5 / 2 he would outlay $100
2 / 2.50 $200
2.5 / 3 $300
ect

so in this case he'd have backed Black ink for $300

I like his way of thinking and have been phantom trialling this recently for some good results..

Well there's logic in that maverick, the further you rate your runner ahead of the rest the more you stake on it.. Seems sensible really.

I've seen something similar in some of the punting books I studied, but I'd like to see some P&L figures over three months or more before I took it on.. Logically though if your top rated does Ok then you should be ahead...

So many ways to approach this... If you can go to a TAFE to become a tradesman, or a uni to become a doctor/lawyer where do you go to become a Professional Punter... This learn as you go along caper is full of pitfalls.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Best way of learning if you ask me. Nothing like getting your fingers burned.

I have read a number of books which suggest betting to Takeout Return a fixed amount including the O/L is the stronger . (no.1)
Your outlays are also less.

Example.
Say one wins 2 races in a row.
2/1 ($3)
4/1 ($5)

Betting to Target Profit $100
2/1--O/L $50-- Ret $150
4/1--O/L $25-- Ret $125
Total O/L $75
Total Ret $275
Profit $200

267% POT

Betting to Takeout Return ,fixed amount including the O/L $100
2/1 (3.00) --O/L 33.00 Ret $100
4/1 (5.00) --O/L 20.00 Ret $100
Total O/L $53
Total Ret $200
Profit $147

277% POT

10 Pt Diff, in favour or Takeout Return. (No.1 option)

No.1 option works best on longer priced horses say $3.50+

No.2 option works best on shorter prices horses say $2.90 & less & the O/L is also much greater, so the SR had better be high.

Example 2
5/1 & 10/1
Result would be...
666% POT (option No.2) &
699% POT (option No.1) respectivly.
33 Pt Diff, in favour of betting to Takeout Return (No.1 option)

The larger the price , the better No.1 option works over No.2 option.

The idea is to go through say 50 results & work it out to Percentage POT.
This should give one a clearer picture, rather than straight Dollar figures.
It's the Percentage that counts , not the dollars..

For those interested in Dutch Betting , this is also the preferred method,
over say the other 2 Dutching methods of betting which is, betting to a fixed amount O/L & betting to a fixed profit, no matter which two or three horses win, because longterm , its the shorter price of the 2-3 selections that will win the more races.

Betting to Takeout Return, the outlays are also usually less to acheive a similar or better percentage result & that has to be a good thing.

Cheers.

True AngryPixie,

But why do the graduates of the "school of hard knocks", have so many cuts and bruises?

There has got to be an easier way....

But I suppose that is what this forum is all about though...

I wonder if any true professionals bother to read these columns, I know I wouldn't bother once I hit the big time... Which I will, mind you...
I just have to keep searching..

Kind Regards
OzPunter