How long do you follow a system for before you throw in the towell ??
I've had my first crack at my own system much to pigheaded to follow anyone elses and i'm up a heap in so far 5 weeks...
I'd hate to throw it in if it loses a few and then find out it's made a come back and i haven't been on....
How do you know when you've been just lucky or your onto something..

I would suggest if it's going that good just keep doing it.
If one day you find you are lining up at the Salvo's then I suggest you change your system. :smile:

Maverick I know you cant give away too many secrets if its working that well, but whats the basics is it single bets, staking 2 or 3 in a race, or novelties?

Maverick,

Work out your strike rate and then the longest losing sequence.

If your system exceeds the expected longest losing sequence given the strike rate, stop betting and have a rethink.

Hi Chrome,

I have been trying to work out a method to arrive at an 'expected run of outs' for a [any] system.

Perhaps adding all winner's payouts and dividing by the total number of runners [inc. losers] to come to an average odds for total bets ?

Expected run of outs would require average odds [converted to %] to arrive at an expected run of outs.

Am I way off track here ?

What method would you [or anyone else for that matter] recommend ?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-06-18 07:13 ]

Nagman- Its a bit of both..i've detailed it in the racing forum section. Have a look and tell me what you think..

Chrome-prince. I've had my first loss with the system yesterday.
For an example if i lose the next 5 times..
then win on my 6th time..my losing streak would be 6....so are you saying if i lose another 6 in the furure i should stop and rethink the sysytem ?? of course i'd be taking into account the actual stake lost as well..

Thanks for the advice guys ...I'm still refining the process.

Mav, Bghawan is great at giving expected run of outs --- so watch for a posting from him :smile:

However your experiment, which I have followed from your thread on the other forum, is complicated in that it mixes straight outs and exotics. I would be doubtful if it would be easy (possible?) to suggest a run of outs in that situation.

Maverick,

This is a little different. It really has nothing to do with your longest loss on a day or your profit/loss at the time.

Unfortunately, we aren't allowed to post links on the forum, but search the internet for a losing sequence mathematical calculator.

Work out your average dividend.
Work out your overall strike rate.

A calculator will tell you what your maximum losing sequence should be.

In my opinion, if the losing sequence goes longer than the average, not the maximum, I'd cut back my bets a little to save the bank.
You may miss a good winner, but it could save you from disaster in the long-run.

A little off track, only for the longest losing sequence expected, otherwise spot on.
Your calculation will give the expected strike rate, not the longest losing sequence and number of expected losing sequences for each loss.

See my post above to Maverick.

Hello Chrome,
I too am very interested in finding a loosing sequence calculator. Have some systems that all seem to drop off this time of year then pickup in August.
I tried doing a search on the web but found nothing useful.
Any more clues to where I can find someting would be greatly appreciated.