WHY????????
 

AS well known I am no form student but some things in racing really bamboozle me.

Cranbourne race 7 we have ( on qldtab ) No 14 Shadow at $54 and No 15 King Johannes at $4.

They both raced on the 21 aug on a heavy track and they both ran 2nd in their respective races.

They have both won at todays distance, and in todays going.

In todays race no14 carried the same weight so I presume it is racing in the same class.

In todays race no15 dropped 2 kilos so I presume it is going up in class.

Can anyone out there explain to me WHY????? there is $ 50 difference in the price of these two nags.

Just curious and as always one cannot ever stop learning.

If I was looking at the form I would have thought that the 14 would have been the better bet of the two, because of the value and was racing in the same class.

Cheers

Yeah its amazing sometimes kenchar. Im not expert either but this happens so often. Happened with DEA yesterday and that won at $37. I see them alot going through the form guides maybe we should make a thread and look at these type of things for selections. Brings up some very nice priced winners

form in the previous two runs was much better for king johannes and shadow waslosing out in the jockey change and I think the race race king johannes ws in was a bit better class. most punters would probably have thought itwas a lucky run and he wouyld not repeat it.still $ 54 was value should have been around 12-15 in my book. my opinion only.
Im sure punter 57 would have backed it. it would have been right up his alley.

Hi kenchar!
Did not bet today, so did not rate any race either, but I think the difference between the two nags was only in the mind of the punters.
Shadow is a 6 year old, here is the formline for the last few years:
123L6882X021417X3L60L8279769587X20172
It's classpoints (according to MY class ratings) for it's last race :
Raceclass: 48.92 horse class points:45.01

King Johannes formline: 13012
It's classpoints for it's last race :
Raceclass: 48.92 horse class points:47.94

I think everyone followed the notion of a younger horse, better finishing margin etc. and ignoring the fact that Shadow has a proven record on Met tracks and class, and King Johannes had only one run on Met track and class.
As to punter57 would have bet or not, I think his idea of looking why a horse pays so much is not a bad one.