True Odds
 

Can someone give a simple method of working a horses true chance of winning a race? I usually price 5 or 6 chances in doubles.

Mad Gambler

A simple method will give you odds for 5 or 6 chances, but I can guarantee they won't win long term. I can also guarantee they will regularly not be the 5 or 6 horses with the best winning chances. If it was so easy to win with simple methods everyone would be a winner.
rofl.

Hi Mad Gambler.

a simple method, which is unfortunately not very practical, is

100 dividedby TABOdds. (This is the final declared dividend).

Simple....


Now, seriously.... Are you working a ratings method or something here?

Cheers,
Chris.

ooops.. Sorry folks... I forgot to mention in the above formula that you need to adjust the odds by the tote takeout.

Mad Gambler,

You can only work out 'true' odds in Casino games. If it was possible in horse racing, there would be no horse racing.

Here is a simple method for what you are looking for:
Take the top 5 or 6 horses PP and create an 80% market [forget odds, they are actually percentages]. Divide those runners into what % chance you think each horse has of winning and then convert the % to odds. They are the prices you are looking for. Above it's an overlay, below it's an underlay which naturally you don't except.

You'd be surprised at just how good you get at it after a bit of practice. If you can't do it or you think it's too much bother, except losing and just enjoy yourself and call punting entertainment.

One can create their own book using Wt. ratings points e.g.100 Pts ect.as shown on UniTAB ,or place or win percentage, by using the tool in the site shown below.

Framing a market.

http://www.ozracetools.com/index.php

Also on this site one can reframe the market by using the newspaper prices & convert it to a 130% market for the whole field, this will usually get close to the final win dividend.
From there one can take out the six horses with the relevant prices.

Bagman,

Had a look at that link. Unless I missed an operational option, useful but not for framing our own market. If I enter odds on offer or PP odds all it does is tell me % etc. and how much the take on top is. I thought the idea was to frame a market based on our own handicapping, so we can work out if the prices on offer are underlays or overlays according to what WE think is a fair price for our runners?

Pricing the whole field [100%], unless you want to create race meeting ratings, seems a bit of a waste of time when ratings are available all over the place. Why bother, when we are only considering 5 or 6 runners [80% of winners are in the first 5 PP odds runners] anyway. If we think every horse has a good chance of winning, we shouldn't be betting the race [unless it's the Melb. Cup].