Laying Analysis Process
 

All,

When deciding on horses to lay there are 2 ways you can go about the analysis. The first is to compare the horse you want to lay to the field. You are essentially determining the horses overall chances of winning the race.

The other way which I am coming to like is to only analyse 2 (or 3) horses. This reduces the work required and lets face it you are not trying to pick the winner of the race, you are just trying to pick a horse that will lose.

The advantages of doing this are :
1. Concentrate your effort on 2 horses so there is more thorough analysis.
2. Your not confused by the amount of stats you look through with each horse.
3. Saves time.
4. Sometimes you could be wrong and still turn out a winner as something else in the field wins.

The disadvantages are :
1. Which two horses to pick ?
2. Odds could be large if you pick longer prices horses.

If you stick to the prepost favs or at least in the top 4 of the prepost prices then you should be sticking to horses with the acceptable laying odds.

I have started to look at the top 2-3 prepost horses and am working out a beaten lengths difference that I think will occur. I have found I am much more accurate doing this type of analysis then when I was looking at the entire field. Of course if I am trying to find the winner then I will need to look at the whole field.

What are everyone else's thoughts on this process ?

Good Luck.

Hi, Wes,

Interesting what you have to say. While not exactly what you are thinking about, I am continually drawn back to the thoughts of Maria --- the laying heroine. Several times she mentions that her father (who is some sort of maths guru if I remember rightly) said that she should be backing the longer-priced horses, as he does.

Most of us (rightly I believe) fear the longer price animal getting up and so wiping out our bank --- which has to reasonably substantial in the first place to cover the liability on a longer priced selection. But if Maria's Dad can do it there must be a way!

What do people think?

MerriGuy,

I think Marias dad is saying back the loonger priced ones as they are generally offered at overlay prices which means long term you should make a profit.

Looking at a few horses simplifies the process a lot. I have analysed the Ipswich meeting tommorrow below to show how I am going about it.

Please note that I have not analysed the entire field just the first few prepost favs.

Race 1 :
Not Rated as 800m is too short a race where luck can play a major part.

Race 2:
Analysed: Erembourg, Mr Blue Berry, Barok.
Rated Erembourg to win by 1 length on Barok who beats Mr Blue Berry by a nose. Horse to lay is Barok. The reason being that Mr Blue Berry only had 1 start and was hard to assess against the field. He could improve dramtically.

Race 3:
Analysed: Yunus, Pious Pearl, Trinity Heights
Rated Pious Pearl to win by a nose to Yunus beating Trinity Heights by around 2.5 lengths. Horse to lay is Trinity Heights.

Race 4:
Analysed:Main Vein,Miss Devito, Jimeon
Rated Main Vein to win by a nose. Very close race. Jimeon should be at least 1 length behind these two. Lay Jimeon.

Race 5:
Analysed : Princess Of Monaco, General Bonaparte
Princess of Monaco is rated 4 lengths clear of General Bonaparte. Lay General Bonaparte.

Race 6:
Analysed:Muzzio, Wind Gusts, Roman Ace
This will be a close race between Wind Gusts and Muzzio but I think Muzzio will lose by half a length. Roman Ace is going to be a long way back. He is rated at least 6 lengths off the other two. Lay Roman Ace.

Race 7:
Analysed: Sir Clang, Zirconium,
Another tough race but I have rated Zirconium to win by a length over Sir Clang despite the very bad barrier draw.

Race 8 :
Analysed: The Big Easy, Royal Opera
I have rated the big easy a clear 2.5 lengths clear of Royal opera at the finish line.

Race 9:
Analysed:Miss Molly Dolly,Momfasa,
Momfosa is rated at least 3 lengths clear of Miss Molly Dolly at the finish.

Good Lays (at least 2 lengths or worse) would be:
Race 3 : Trinity Heights
Race 5 : General Bonaparte
Race 6 : Roman Ace
Race 8 : Royal Opera
Race 9 : Miss Molly Dolly

Good Luck.

Merriguy

That's backers talk not layers talk. :D

In my opinion the sweet spot for laying is in the range roughly 6.00 to 11.00. Betfair account balance agrees too. Michaelg is having quite a bit of success in this area, as I have had for about the last 18 months. My current test lay method in "Pixies Pix" has an average BAT SP of about 7.70. and is showing a nice profit. I don't really understand why some layers shy away from these horses. You will have some accidents, but not anywhere near as many as the shorter priced lays.

Each to their own I guess.

EDIT: Just read Michaels latest "Lay The Fave" post. May take back that statement about his success with the longer priced ones. Tough luck Michael. :(

Hi, Angry Pixie.

Fortunately, yesterday's accident was not a qualifier - it was $15. However, there were 2 qualifiers for Price B, they were both beaten. Since Friday 4 May the price range of $6 to $9.90 (Price B) has had 24 selections for 24 successes.

Hi, Wes. Will be watching with interest. Good luck.

Thanks for the thoughts, Pixie. Once again watchig with interest --- and pleased that you are doing well.

Going back to Maria's Dad, however, I certainly got the impression that he meant further out than $11.00. If I remember rightly she layed them up to about the $11.00 mark.

Yes I will lay out a bit further depending on my assessed price. The "Pixie's Pix" lay selection's are doing better than my bread and butter lay method so I'm looking closely too ;) Hope some others are profiting along the way.

two races changed due to scratchings:

Race 5:
Analysed : Princess Of Monaco, Red Light Bandit, Let There Be Rock
Princess of Monaco is rated 3 lengths clear of Let there be rock and a further 2 lengths to Red Light Bandit.

Race 7:
Analysed: Sir Clang, The Guardian
Interesting that this is still close and I have it at a nose difference with Sir clang winning.

Good Lays (at least 2 lengths or worse) would be:
Race 3 : Trinity Heights
Race 5 : Red Light Bandit and Let There Be Rock
Race 6 : Roman Ace
Race 8 : Royal Opera
Race 9 : Miss Molly Dolly

For those interested:

Race 2 Analysis was for 3 horses. It was rated as follows:

Erembourg to win by 1 length on Barok who beats Mr Blue Berry by a nose. Horse to lay is Barok. The reason being that Mr Blue Berry only had 1 start and was hard to assess against the field. He could improve dramtically.

Anticpated outcome :
Erembourg, Barok, Mr Blueberry with a warning the last 2 could change order.

Race outcome :
Erembourg WIN, Mr Blue Berry came 4th and Barok came 6th.

You could lay Mr Blue Berry at $5.50
You could lay Barok at $8.50

Good Luck.