Don Scott Odds-On
Here's a system that I've been betting using Don Scott's ratings:
1 ) Must be rated at $1.50 or shorter. 2 ) Must have won last start or ran second. I'm showing a POT of slightly higher than 10% with Place betting. I haven't really checked Win betting but there have been two winners that have paid double-figures on NSW TAB. The drawback with the system is that not only can the divvies be skinny but there are many days without any selections, and because of this I often have not bothered to check. However, there are 5 selections today so I'll list them and see what happens. Belmont R7 no.1 - Marasco Bendigo R3 no.4 - Mammy Jolson Eagle Farm R5 no.3 - Fravashi Flemington R3 no.6 - Toulouse Lautrec Morphetville R4 no.3 - Favelon's Dream. |
Not a bad method there.
The win loss is only 1.43% The place loss is only 2.16% Getting best tote or Betfair, it's a simple winner. |
Thanks for that, Chrome.
Out of interest, Toulouse Lautrecs' final Place trade on Betfair was $1.21 yet it paid $1.04 on NSW TAB. I've found in almost every case that the lower the TAB Place divvy the greater advantage percentagewise using Betfair. The greatest I've seen was TAB $1.04 yet $1.31 (5% take-out not included) with Betfair. It's Betfair for me now with this method which generally selects very short-priced horses, and your figures show it should be profitable. I forgot to mention that if a selection has won its last three starts then it becomes a non-selection. |
michael, I'll look into this further for both of us :)
I'll keep you posted, we might be able to expand this internationally and boost the number of bets. I think you'd have at least 5 bets a day. If you limit it to horses starting within 14 days it shows a slight profit, but also halves the number of bets. From a lay perspective, horses that did not run first or second last start but are less than $1.51, it shows a 12.27% loss on turnover and 6.32% place loss. I'd suggest any flat race would qualify and it's pretty easy to spot the horses that will trade that low. |
O.K.
Flat racing U.K. Win loss 2% @ bookies SP Each Way loss 1.90% @ bookies SP Jumps racing U.K. Win loss 1.60% @ bookies SP Each Way loss 0.90% LOAD UP :D Thanks for this idea Michael. |
There is one possible tonight.
Tramore 12:50 Kharsya Last start second 1m4f Good to Firm Bookies have it at $1.61 The challengers have run 4th and fifth last start. Will be watching movements on course @ sporting life. |
Kharsya trading at $1.51 on Betfair.
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Chrome, it's firmed to $1.43.
I'll back it for a place. |
:D
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In spite of all the numerous races today there are no selections.
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