Newbie Introduction
 

G'day all.

Been reading for a while here & thought I should introduce myself to you folk.

I'm a newbie in every sense of the word when it comes to punting, systems & selections. I followed some racing as a kid many years ago when my Dad & Uncle owned a horse in western NSW.

Since then I haven't really paid much attention other than the obligatory Big day in November as every Aussie should or the occassional day out at a track with the boys (More of an excuse to drink really) when I was living in Kalgoorlie.

So, after a little win on a trifecta which was placed because I was in a pub with a few guys who were punting types, I decided I might put the money to good use & secured an online account with one of the many internet based betting agencies & have been playing around with a few systems ever since. That was 2 years ago & since then I have dwindled my win from $3500 to $500. But I have also used some profits along the way to purchase a computer program for selections & testing systems (I'd like to mention it here but not too sure what the rules are with regard to product names etc)

Anyway, since my bank is going in the opposite direction I want it to I am now going to concerntrate my efforts & try my best to stick to a decent staking plan & find myself a system that will hopefully bring my bank back to a breathing status.

With my knowledge of racing being very basic I hope you guys don't barrage me with a load of techno waffle that will simply char my skull & not sink in. bare in mind I am still yet to fully comprehend terms like double down, lay bets, layover etc etc, but hey, thats why I joined here for an education.

In my little world of watching money go with more frequency than it comes I am managing find time to play with data from Jan 2007 to current & test a few systems (None of which seem to be giving me anything worth laying cash on just yet) Its lead me to ponder a few basic questions;

1 - How much data would be considered a reasonable amount (I know you can never have enough but hey, I have to pay by the month!)

2 - What would most of you consider a fair expectation of a return IE; would a 25% win strike rate with a 10% WPOT be something you would work with or should I aim higher.

I'm reasonably happy with action being around 1 selection per day if it came to it but I'm not really sure what is considered average using systems?

Anyway, that's me. Hope to gain some great insights from here, after reading numberous post I think I will learn quite a bit.

Cheers

Hi iPunter,


From what i can tell youve got more than enough data,the thing to remember though is that its not the amount of data or even the amount of questions you ask of it but the ability to come up with an angle that others arent looking at,something that gives you an advantage over everybody else.

Failing that youve got to look for very small profit windows and be meticulous in every aspect of your approach to edge out a long term win.

Cheers.

Hi Dale

Thanks for the reply.

Yeah I figure with the amount of data & programs to trawl that data available today there will be plenty of "Been there done that" senarios around.

Being such a novice may actually have an advantage in that respect, however I still need to know how to recognise a good idea when I fall over it in the dark! :)

I have been finding that when I grill the data via info I've picked up from various sources it does seem to return figures that whilst give good win strike rates don't return very good profit figures. I have a long way to go before I can call myself proficeint at using this program I have but I am getting there.

I guess my main worry at the moment is that I'm not sure what is a good set of returned outlooks. IE if a system I run through the program returns 39% win strike rate, 19% wpot but it only gave back say less than 180 selections over the period 2007 to current then is it really trustworthy results?

Regards

Mik

180 bets isnt enough for me and id go crazy waiting for a betting opportunity with a selection method that selective but thats not to say your not onto something.

Others here should be able to give you more of idea of what to look for to ensure "trustworthy results",in the meantime it would pay to use the search feature and read a few old posts on the subject,dont hesitate to reply and ask questions as im sure theyll be willing to help.

Ok, I didn't think it would really be enough data.

Actually, most of the systems I've tested seem to bring back that amount of selections or around that, I did a few sums & most look like they produce around one selection per week. Coupled together with several systems I could possibly get around one selection per day between all available races (My program only does Australian races) That wouldn't be totally unacceptable to me, the only thing that worries me is will the data stand up over a longer period? I guess I either fork out for more historical results or wait 10 years before I have a punt eh!

Do you know if its ok to mention the program I have or is that against the site rules (I did look & couldn't see anything about that kind of thing but knowing my luck its probably in bold print at the top somewhere very obvious!)

I reckon you could do a lot worse than targeting horses to run a place in fields of 8-10 runners & go from there.

If relying on systems , one would need to run a few of them at once , because the better systems tend to only have a few bets each month.
i found using 4.5 years of data seems to be enpough data for most systems.

Chop the results into lots of 150 if possible, so as to give us an idea if the system has any long term legs.

I ran over 100 systems all at once, using the GTX program, at one stage.
It was very good , all systems done in a few seconds.

The trick is not to double up on runners mentioned twice, by different systems.

One would go crazy if it was done manually.

Thanks mate, good advise there. It is actually GTX that I'm using. I will break the search date up like you said.

I did notice one I ran was a complete dud from 2007 to 2008 but then it grew legs in 2009 & 2010 (I couldn't work out what the ******** was going on till I realised I had inadvertantly set the dates to those periods & not what I was previously looking at) So your suggestion definatley makes sense to me. I guess I should have woken up to that when I did it by mistake!

With some education & alot of reading I feel I do have several systems now that may work very well together & provide enough action to enable me to be patient. Sorting out the staking plans is the next big item on my learning list.

Thanks for the replys guys. Sitting at a computer for hours plugging away with a new system kinda sends you a little loopy after awhile. Its nice to know I'm not alone in the task.

Hi iPunter,

The biggest piece of advice I would give you, seeing as you have a database, is think outside of the box. Play with the form factors you have the use of in your database and see what happens. Remember, if you have a horse which ticks all the boxes, good last start, good barrier etc etc, chances are so will everyone else, and as a general rule of thumb, they will win more, but the return as you mentioned above, will be less ie poor value. Thats a very simple way of looking at it, but unless you are pricing your own fields and betting overlays, you have no real idea of if that horse is value or not.

In regards to asking about what a good strike rate it, well that is a completely personal thing. YOu need to be comfortable with your SR, and be sure that when that losing run hits, you still have the confidence (and the bank) left to keep plonking the cash on, the fact is on a 25% SR, at some stage you will hit a losing run of 25+, one of the biggest factors of winning on the punt is discipline, if you hit a bad run you can't just start changing your systems and plonking the dough down on that 'sure' thing your mate down the pub told you about, you have to stick to your guns and be prepared to weather the storm! Winning is easy to cope with, losing is the hard part and where people fail.

Again in regards to POT, that entirely depends on your turnover, some of the biggest punters work off 1-2% POT's but turn over huge volumes to make there money, so its all relative. You could have a system which returns a 90% POT on a 100 bets a year, or a system that returns 2% POT on 300 bets a week, again it all depends on your punting style, myself I prefer high turnover as I love action, and have no interest in only betting 1 horse a day.

Anyway, will stop rambling now.

Cheers

Sorry one last thing, remember that if GTX shows a return of even say -5% POT, if you shop around for prices, Betfair, Best tot/Top fluc bookies etc, you should be able to turn that into a small profit margin (assuming GTX uses TAB prices??).

One of the biggest things in this game is securing the best odds possible!

Thanks Thorns

Thats all extremley good advice & info. Yes, GTX uses prices from NSW, VIC & QLD (Uni) as well as SP (Not too sure what that one is yet but I'm still learning) I have done several test using each individual TAB and the difference in POT is amazing!

Based on that I decided I will open accounts at all the TAB's (I currently have a NSW & Sportsbet account) Chasing the totes certainly looks to be a major factor.

I also took Bhagwan's suggestion last night & ran some systems in block date runs firstly in 12 month periods & its painfully obvious that a high level disciplin will be required as there were some serious runs of outs between some nice profits. I guess only time will tell how my grit holds up, if I turn to jelly or hold my ground.

Thansk to everyone, this forum is great for someone like me to get a good dose of reality mixed with great advice. Cheers.