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-   -   Test a Neural Lay Method. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26116)

michaelg 8th March 2013 12:25 PM

Test a Neural Lay Method.
 
Thanks to Speedy Ben's success I've looked at a neural lay system. Over the past two days there have been 115 selections for 115 smiles.

I'll see how it goes today. Because of the time it takes to identify the selections I have omitted Canterbury, Launceston and Albany. If I get time I might have a look at them. I'm laying the following selections for a liability of $33.

Taree
1/2, 11
3/2, 4, 8, 10, 11, 15
4/6, 8, 14
5/5, 12
6/2, 4, 8, 12, 14
7/9, 14
8/5, 9, 14

Stawell
5/8
6/11
7/3, 5, 11
8/9

Ipswich
1/10
2/8
4/11
5/4
7/8, 12
8/17, 18, 19, 20, 21

Sapphire Coast
1/3, 11
2/7,8, 10
5/7
6/1, 4, 5, 11
7/13
8/7

michaelg 8th March 2013 04:04 PM

The method has already struck an accident. Thankyou, Forum Curse...

However there have been 18 smiles for a return of $27.91 ($33 liability) which isn't too bad for an outsider method. The loss at the moment is $4.82.

The selections for the remaining venues are:

Albany
1/3
2/4
4/5, 9
7/6, 9, 10

Cranbourne
3/2, 4
4/1, 7, 10
7/9, ,11
8/10, 13

michaelg 9th March 2013 01:07 PM

Not a bad day - from the 67 selections there were 65 smiles for a profit of $18.92.

Due to time constraints I've only looked at the four major meetings today, they are:

Warwick Farm
5/8
6/6
7/7
8/6, 12

Flemington
3/8, 11
6/8
7/9, 10, 11
8/5, 11, 14

Morphetville
4/9
6/3
8/10

Dombeen
1/11, 15
2/12
4/9
6/13
7/6, 11, 16
8/11, 17
9/13

michaelg 9th March 2013 05:59 PM

I made a mistake - there were no selections in Flemington race 8 even though I listed there were three of them. No need to say one of the "selections" was the winner of the race.

However, in spite of this the method thankfully finished about $1 in profit.

From tomorrow I'll re-start the method as it looks promising, and I'll double-check the validity of the selections.

michaelg 10th March 2013 12:34 PM

And now for something completely different - a neural Lay method that targets the high end of the market so that any smile should produce a relatively good profit. On Friday and yesterday there was one accident each day but almost all the smiles ended up at single prices on Unitab.

Hobart
7/1

Bunbury
4/3
5/2
7/2
8/7
9/9

Canberra
3/7

Corowa
4/1

Stony Creek
3/8
8/6

The Ocho 10th March 2013 12:50 PM

Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain horses.

Sunshine Coast
2- 8

Corowa
4- 4
5- 14

Stony Creek
5- 1

Clare
4- 6

Canberra
5- 13
7- 3

Bunbury
8- 7

Echuca
3- 3
5- 1

Hobart
5- 4

Rinconpaul 10th March 2013 07:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain
4

Let me be the first to congratulate you Ocho. A real gutsy effort! I haven't got to the bottom of your selection criteria yet, but you obviously have an insight into selection analysis beyond the ordinary.
Well done RP

Lord Greystoke 10th March 2013 08:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain horses.

Sunshine Coast
2- 8

Corowa
4- 4
5- 14

Stony Creek
5- 1

Clare
4- 6

Canberra
5- 13
7- 3

Bunbury
8- 7

Echuca
3- 3
5- 1

Hobart
5- 4
My dear Ocho.

It would appear that the Good Lord has slipped a DART (Doctorate in Advanced pattern-Recognition Technology) into your diaper at birth.

Ingenious.

Cheers LG

PS Still working on my TAFE certificate here... nearly 49 years later!

The Ocho 10th March 2013 10:22 PM

Thanks very much Rinconpaul and Lord Greystoke. I can't believe it. Beginners luck for sure. I noticed today they all lost but the following were my stats for just the ones that started at $10 or under:

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Echu (AUS) 10th Mar / 14:30 R3 1200m Hcap 3. Solar Strike Lay 3 3.95 3
AUS / Coro (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:10 R4 1600m CL2 4. Mr Trim Lay 3.02 6 3.02
AUS / StCr (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:23 R5 1100m Hcap 1. Spirit Cent Lay 3.03 3.95 3.03
AUS / Canb (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:32 R5 1400m Listed 13. Brave Soul Lay 3.05 4.1 3.05
AUS / Clre (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:36 R4 1100m Hcap 6. Sir Trentin Lay 3.05 3.4 3.05
AUS / Hoba (AUS) 10th Mar / 16:04 R5 1200m Hcap 4. Hold Onto Your Hat Lay 2.06 7.4 2.06
AUS / Canb (AUS) 10th Mar / 16:46 R7 2000m Listed 3. Shadows In The Sun Lay 3.1 5.6 3.1

I'm trying this with Maria staking ($5, $3, $2) but also using ratchet staking. While giving this a go I am still thinking of just using a plain $5 level stake as BF might start to question the lay bets under $5 (most were for $3 today).

Today 7 smiles from 7 matching selections
Maria Total +$18.99 :) (commission deducted)
$5 Level Stakes +$32.72 (commission deducted)

Lord Greystoke 11th March 2013 07:24 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
The method has already struck an accident. Thankyou, Forum Curse...

However there have been 18 smiles for a return of $27.91 ($33 liability) which isn't too bad for an outsider method. The loss at the moment is $4.82.

Another promising adventure in Neurology from Michaelg, albeit with the Forum Curse(FC) poking it's nose in! Perhaps we could rename it to 'Forum Bonus'(FB) as it always seems to bring with it some kind of additional learning or sharpened focus with it?

FB is a tad less onorous on the ears in the early hours than FC, yes?!

Long may your Neural lays continue, Master blaster.

Cheers LG


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