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Search: Posts Made By: demodocus
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 11th October 2018, 10:35 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 25,040
Posted By demodocus
Sometimes I weep for the standard of education in...

Sometimes I weep for the standard of education in dear ol' Oz

Let's do something VERY basic. If the fancied horse/favourite/donkey/whippet wins 33% of the time then in order for you to make a profit...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th September 2018, 09:25 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 3,732
Posted By demodocus
ORIGINAL ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of...

ORIGINAL
ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of (15.75%) .... WSR 21.41% $3.94

Sat Metro [16.5K+] gives a POT result of (15.26%)...... WSR 19.74% $4.42

Moving on to 3rd up ........... all...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 18th August 2018, 09:27 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,046
Posted By demodocus
I received a gratuitous "review copy"...

I received a gratuitous "review copy" or "copy for review" as the thing started. Ran some analyses as best I could and wasn't too impressed. It just didn't seem right, but it did well for a while...
Forum: Horse Racing 13th August 2018, 07:47 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,606
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' UB :-) This comment raises an...

Mornin' UB :-)

This comment raises an interesting possibility. Let's use the outrageous proposition that the TAB price is just a number that can be used as an anchor point for wagers elsewhere .......
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th August 2018, 09:31 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 3,732
Posted By demodocus
.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers 2k won...

.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers
2k won @$1.18 (on average TAB)

Doesn't add up.
Forum: Horse Racing 10th August 2018, 09:04 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,606
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' UB, Field size doesn't help. Handicap...

Mornin' UB,

Field size doesn't help.

Handicap races w. 8 starters Top 5 WSR 77.9%
.........................14 ...........................48.9%

You can do the "dutch" numbers yrself ..... it...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 9th August 2018, 05:33 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 12,479
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' UB, Oh it's not good. I HAVE NEVER...

Mornin' UB,

Oh it's not good.

I HAVE NEVER FOUND ANY SYSTEM/MECHANICAL METHOD etc using the TAB to be profitable (after 22 years of continual research) over the long term. There ARE short/medium...
Forum: Horse Racing 9th August 2018, 05:24 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,606
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' UB, I had a long look using Mr Shiny's...

Mornin' UB,

I had a long look using Mr Shiny's database.

WSR ..... +/- 14.25%
POT ...... (22%)
AvDiv ... $5.44

No thanks, gotta go,Mr Jack wants to go to the beach.
Forum: Horse Racing 7th August 2018, 08:13 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,606
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' chaps, Here we go again. The REAL numbers...

Mornin' chaps,
Here we go again.
The REAL numbers are for the TOP 4 fancied horses are ............

HCP races Sat Metro 8 - 10 field WSR 19.25% $4.39...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 6th August 2018, 05:14 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 2,969
Posted By demodocus
Note the exhortation to "Good Luck"....

Note the exhortation to "Good Luck". You'll need it.

The WSR of 33% is the dominant feature.
What it's first 2 runs (if it's a 5yr old) has to do with anything escapes me. If it means that the...
Forum: General Topics 30th July 2018, 05:39 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,573
Posted By demodocus
Mumblings

Mornin’ folks,

This wee missive is aimed at several friends in our small band.

The first thing that we need to recognise is that “Punters aren’t dumb, it’s the racing game that is hard”.

So when...
Forum: General Topics 29th July 2018, 06:05 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 6,671
Posted By demodocus
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Big Hoss is trying...

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Big Hoss is trying to save Frontally Advantaged Sally from the attentions of Pistol Pete.

Treading through the ASX200 we come across a company that (like Snowdrops...
Forum: General Topics 25th July 2018, 05:33 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 6,671
Posted By demodocus
Over time, punting sensibly will deliver 10%+...

Over time, punting sensibly will deliver 10%+ (untaxed, unless you fall foul of the fiscal fiend at the ATO). BUT there is risk that you can lose your entire capital.

Over time you can stick your...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th July 2018, 05:11 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,808
Posted By demodocus
Bonjour Monsieur Shiny (minor royal), Before I...

Bonjour Monsieur Shiny (minor royal),

Before I found your brilliant d/b I constructed my own (despite sore fingers and late nights) and found a way to lift some faves WSR to in excess of 56% (fields...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 24th July 2018, 06:10 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,808
Posted By demodocus
G'day Bhags, long time no C. To follow your...

G'day Bhags, long time no C.

To follow your parade. :-)

Using your criteria ... over the last 5 years ................ (Yes, I collect "tipsters" data too) .....................

Field........WSR
...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th July 2018, 05:41 AM
Replies: 53
Views: 17,186
Posted By demodocus
A sensible place to start. Sprint race,...

A sensible place to start.

Sprint race, established rider, AND two other Ratings agencies "rate" the horse.

Then you refine their estimates. If it works, why not.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 14th July 2018, 06:06 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,123
Posted By demodocus
Long time no c. :-) Now we're getting into the...

Long time no c. :-)

Now we're getting into the realm of "manipulated" results of the Whatever "system".

EG .... Our Systemateer didn't include the LOSER in R6 'cos the Going was Slow, in the...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 13th July 2018, 05:41 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,123
Posted By demodocus
HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD, FAST.

HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD, FAST.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 8th July 2018, 05:26 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,123
Posted By demodocus
Smile For the Laymen ..... Is there a Race Type effect ?

Had a look AT WSR and TAB AvDiv ...... 8+ starters, MIN TAB div $20.00, all Going.

TYPE..... NOT SAT METRO .............. SAT METRO

MDN...... 1.75% $36.15 ................. 1.89% $34.30
CLASS .....
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 17th June 2018, 06:09 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 9,439
Posted By demodocus
($2951.21) :-( Ah well. Still leaves me...

($2951.21) :-(

Ah well. Still leaves me with a 12 day doubled bank. Don't understand racing dogs, I live with one but he doesn't race .... he'll be 16 on Aug 1 :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 17th June 2018, 04:41 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 9,439
Posted By demodocus
Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was...

Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2018, 04:34 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 9,439
Posted By demodocus
There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The...

There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th June 2018, 05:47 AM
Replies: 395
Views: 43,763
Posted By demodocus
Get a programmable database, do the analyses, and...

Get a programmable database, do the analyses, and prove it for yourself.

My only advice to you is to ..... keep taking the pills .... and be nice :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th June 2018, 05:40 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 4,123
Posted By demodocus
Goodness, gracious me !! You...

Goodness, gracious me !!
You <i>did</i> have a good night out, splattering your knowledge(?) and opinions all over the place.
Settle down, sunshine. You'll regret them in the morning.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th June 2018, 05:33 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 4,123
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' Shaun, Not really. I was a 'newbie' when...

Mornin' Shaun,

Not really. I was a 'newbie' when I became a friend of Ian. These were the days when data bases didn't exist .... you had to record a years data to have a years data to analyse etc....
Showing results 1 to 25 of 189

 
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