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Search: Posts Made By: demodocus
Forum: General Topics 13th April 2020, 08:50 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 29,126
Posted By demodocus
Post removed. Flaming.

Post removed. Flaming.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 14th January 2020, 10:57 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 27,063
Posted By demodocus
As usual you were right. I had a little think and...

As usual you were right. I had a little think and then a big think and finally dragged up ((LOG(2/N))/LOG(1-P) from the dark depths of my tiny mind to calculate the possible ROO. N is the number of...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 2nd January 2020, 01:37 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 27,063
Posted By demodocus
G'day Bhagwan, Somewhat mystified by the Table...

G'day Bhagwan,

Somewhat mystified by the Table on the website which gives the following necessary selection rates to make a small profit (20 races) and the actual WSR's achieved for these prices...
Forum: General Topics 3rd August 2019, 09:03 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 19,513
Posted By demodocus
The more I play with the stats the more i realise...

The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 27th July 2019, 08:37 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 14,025
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' LG :-), ........... FU(84) ..........

Mornin' LG :-),

........... FU(84) ....... FS
$1.20.... 81.2%.......95.2%
$1.40.... 61.7%.......62.1%
$1.60.....55.2%.......56.2%
$1.80.....50.8%.......48.4%
$2.00.....45.2%.......46.8%

Have a nice...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th July 2019, 07:57 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 14,025
Posted By demodocus
7/2 = $4.50 Racefield >7 WSR =17.6% PSR =...

7/2 = $4.50

Racefield >7 WSR =17.6% PSR = 50.2% (AvDiv $1.78)

You can do the numbers for yrself :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th July 2019, 07:51 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 14,025
Posted By demodocus
Maidens Only $1.20 ...... 80.8% $1.40 .........

Maidens Only

$1.20 ...... 80.8%
$1.40 ...... 67.8%
$1.60 ...... 55.4%
$1.80 ...... 48.7%
$2.00 ...... 45.5%
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 23rd July 2019, 06:34 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 14,025
Posted By demodocus
$1.20 ..... 80.8% $1.40 ..... 65.9% $1.60 ........

$1.20 ..... 80.8%
$1.40 ..... 65.9%
$1.60 ..... 53.6%
$1.80 ..... 44.0%

These have been pretty steady for the past 10 years.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th June 2019, 09:53 AM
Replies: 132
Views: 74,887
Posted By demodocus
18% WSR

18% WSR
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th June 2019, 09:49 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 28,629
Posted By demodocus
Last 15 years 69.5% WSR for a small loss on TAB.

Last 15 years 69.5% WSR for a small loss on TAB.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 17th April 2019, 07:12 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 28,629
Posted By demodocus
Smile Mornin' sunshine, Taking a look at 831,619...

Mornin' sunshine,

Taking a look at 831,619 horses in 81,826 races and then inserting the >=55kg restriction we get a representation of 76.85% and an 83.9% WSR.

Moving to the "real" world of 8 - 14...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th December 2018, 08:24 AM
Replies: 119
Views: 61,781
Posted By demodocus
Let's try something that stands up. Country...

Let's try something that stands up.

Country Trax. 8 - 14 Field

First Starter .... Favourite @ TAB +/- $2.60

Take $2.90+ anywhere else that you can get it. :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 15th November 2018, 11:44 AM
Replies: 80
Views: 64,901
Posted By demodocus
Evidence ???

Evidence ???
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th September 2018, 09:25 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 12,010
Posted By demodocus
ORIGINAL ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of...

ORIGINAL
ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of (15.75%) .... WSR 21.41% $3.94

Sat Metro [16.5K+] gives a POT result of (15.26%)...... WSR 19.74% $4.42

Moving on to 3rd up ........... all...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th August 2018, 09:31 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 12,010
Posted By demodocus
.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers 2k won...

.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers
2k won @$1.18 (on average TAB)

Doesn't add up.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th July 2018, 05:41 AM
Replies: 66
Views: 51,269
Posted By demodocus
A sensible place to start. Sprint race,...

A sensible place to start.

Sprint race, established rider, AND two other Ratings agencies "rate" the horse.

Then you refine their estimates. If it works, why not.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 17th June 2018, 04:41 AM
Replies: 80
Views: 64,901
Posted By demodocus
Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was...

Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2018, 04:34 AM
Replies: 80
Views: 64,901
Posted By demodocus
There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The...

There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2017, 07:21 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 17,890
Posted By demodocus
So, using exactly the same data and conditions I...

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2017, 06:53 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 17,890
Posted By demodocus
Wandering into the realms of fantasy. Here's a...

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 15th June 2017, 10:08 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 17,890
Posted By demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)
Forum: General Topics 10th June 2017, 06:49 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 4,107
Posted By demodocus
U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in...

U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in .xls or .qpw or dbf format) that you can zip and send to demodocus_at_iinet.com.au.
Forum: General Topics 9th June 2017, 08:00 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 4,107
Posted By demodocus
Worst System Ever .... Data

Here’s a wee request for those of you who view punting as an interesting mathematical exercise (as I do).

In the Forum “worst system ever” I showed that it is possible to make a profit (24th April...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 22nd April 2017, 07:22 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 11,446
Posted By demodocus
Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the...

Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the bounds of possibility.
Over 15 years it's (System 2) delivered +/- 25% WSR at AvTab of +/- $3.60 POT -5.5% but all dependant on DSLS.
The problem for the...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th March 2017, 06:53 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 5,119
Posted By demodocus
Here's a wee wrinkle :-) First Start favourites...

Here's a wee wrinkle :-)

First Start favourites have a WSR of 36.14% @ $2.52. You're still on a losing proposition, but your WSR is up.

Perhaps somebody knew something ?
Showing results 1 to 25 of 79

 
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