Florent Serra over Xavier Malisse @ $2.94

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.22 Units

All reasoning for this bet is in the discussion thread. Basically, Xavier's win over Berdych looks good on paper but was not as impressive as the scoreline suggests. The quality of the Hrbaty/Serra match was much higher than the Berdych/Malisse match, which ended with Berdych losing the plot (not Malisse winning the match). Serra has a much greater chance than the odds predict and I would say that Malisse should be no more than a 55-45 favourite here.