Originally Posted by Duritz

Number of expected losers is flawed because how many losers can you expect?

Really the most accurate thing is using the "maximum drawdown", ie maximum drop from the top level of your bank.

I have been testing a system which over two years and 6000 bets, with a strike rate of 26%, and had a max drawdown of 113 bets. That means that the worst drop from the previous maximum was 113 bets. If you're betting 3% of your bank.... 113 bets drop down and your f**ked. And this system wins, by the way, there's no selection problem etc, it's just that the punt and selection methods are volatile. You should allow for and work with this volatility.