Thread: Finding Value
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Old 4th April 2006, 07:29 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manygeese
Doesn't really sound like you form a book, more just back your selection when you find acceptable odds for it. Which is not the Don Scott approach to value.


There were no TAB's around when Don Scott was punting and bookies, due to the crowds and being in their heyday, they could afford to run a tighter book [better odds]. Things have changed a great deal since Don Scott. Look at the amount of races today and the abundance of rubbish races among them. Also look at the amount of Maidens and 1000m races [1000m races used to be rare]. Both difficult races to win on. Maidens due partly to poor prices and 1000m races because there is no recovery room after a poorish jump. Look also at the very small amount of Welters and 4yr. old and up races around [easy to win on]. It's a new ball game nowadays with some advantages but a heck of a lot more disadvantages that weren't around in Don Scott's time.

I make up a list of prospective bets and priceline them or price them just from handicapping the race. The bigger the overs the bigger my bet. I usually have 1 to 3 selections in the races I've targeted that I think could win [depends on no of runners in a race]. The selection offering the over is my bet. If there are 2 I'll back the better over. Often [during the week] I have days I don't find a bet and I will also back a runner blind if it isn't obviously going to be fav. when I can't be around to watch the prices. I have my good years, and some bad years like most of us I guess.

Finding 3 or 4 bets across 3 meetings on Sat. is about average but sometimes nothing at all. I indulge in fun bets only on the big stakes races and cups. There is just too many possibilities in those races [look what happened it Syd. last Sat. Where was Hotel Grand ?].

Party,
Top fluc. as overs ? Haven't really thought about it, but I guess it's as close to overs as you'll get. A lot will be and most of those will probably not be starting fav. and a few won't be that will be starting fav. I suppose.
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