12th February 2007, 12:20 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Novice Punter
Seriously though, I am concerned about “The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%”. I have no doubt that your analysis of the figures supplied is correct, Im just worried that I may made an error in my calculations. Have to double check.
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I've had a look at the latest Excel shreadsheet you attached. It was a bit peculiar but using the figures you've supplied I get the following:
Observed
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Bets 944
Wins 386
S/R 40.88%
Expected
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Bets 944
Wins 348.74
S/R 36.94%
This gives you a Yate's Corrected Chi score of 6.14, which converts to around a 98.68% chance that your performance is due to some factor other than luck. Given your high number of bets I'd say this was significant.
Your advantage is 10.84%. Your level stakes ROI is 6.15%. Your average SP for all bets is 2.86 (34.96%)
I'll send you the bill. Greenbacks only thanks
Pixie
PS: How did you do that spreadsheet? Not by hand I hope. I couldn't find one formula in it. |