Your original post NP and your main points:
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Here is what I call my G6 System.
This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.
This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.
My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.
Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.
A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.
A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.
There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.
Anyway, here’s how it goes.
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1. I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.
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Chasing loses. The [very] well known golden rule here is: "Never chase losses.'' You will not find a competent punter with half a brain who will disagree with that rule. Casino's love punters who chase loses and so do Bookies!
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2. 6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.
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If you have a run of say 19 losses [which is not unusual unless your backing odds-on horses], all you are doing is: L,L,L,L,L,L [stop, start again] L,L,L,L,L,L [stop, start again] L,L,L,L,L,L [stop start again]. L,W,?,?,?,? [stop start again] etc.
At flat stakes you will have lost 19 units and then had a winner. Work out for yourself using your favorite progression what your losses would have been and remember every new progression in a set of six is chasing the same profit as your first bet in each set, but risking larger and larger amounts of money to achieve it. In the above example you will have lost considerably more than 19 units. Even if you reduce you groups to 2 instead of 6 you will lose more than 19 units. Say your first bet was trying to win $10 from a $5 bet. Very quickly your risking $50 or more depending on your progression, to win a lousy $10 and that's extreme odds-on betting!
What you are really doing is using a progression to chase loses. That is why any type of progression betting is called a 'Loss Chasing System' and the golden rule is? 'Never chase loses' .... for very good reasons.
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3. Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.
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At flat stakes you have left behind 6 lost units and more than that with whatever progression you decide on. OK, I can see that with regular wins and no runs of losses, a progression system [on paper] can be attractive, but runs of losses are a regular thing in Horse Racing and they tend to wipe out your hard earned profits. Then your just going backward.
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NP,
Personally, what I find does work for me is not progression betting nor flat stakes betting. I adjust my betting amount around a personally chosen flat stakes standard unit bet [could be $5 or $50 depending on what a punter can afford] depending on the odds on offer.
If a punter selects horses to back based on price. tips or rating etc. but not personally chosen through handicapping, the idea would be to bet higher on the lower priced horses [they win more often] and lower on the longer priced horses [they lose more often]. Thats a sound and well know betting method based around flat stakes betting.
However, handicappers [that's me for the last 35yrs.] who make their betting selections based on what they think can win a selected race, will set their own price on a horse based on what chance [odds] they think it has of winning. If the price on offer is below their set price, they might [should] ignore the race. However, if the price on offer is above their set price, they will often bet above their standard bet. Personally that's how I bet and the higher the price offered [the larger the overlay], the more I will bet which is the exact opposite of the other method I mention above.
You have to decide for yourself what method suits you best and if you think betting a sets of 6 chasing losses method is the way to go, well give it a whirl and keep careful records. Theory is never the same as reality in betting on the horses and actually doing it will show you what's good and what's lousy betting practice pretty quickly. Don't be fooled by early success with progressions as they often do work for a time, especially if you are backing short prices. Long term though, they will bite you on the ******** :-)
Cheers.
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