15th April 2008, 11:25 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
The logic is pretty logical actually, you have to find a 10% edge to make money as opposed to finding a 30%+ edge.
It's easier to find a smaller edge than a larger edge.
As crash says though, it's probably also easier to find a horse that is completely mis priced at longer odds.
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How do you measure 'edge' in a race [especially 10%] accurately? It's only opinion isn't it or is there a 'true odds' handbook each race day I don't know about?
As you said, I have no trouble finding plenty of horses I'd judge [ in my opinion] have 30%+ edge in their odds. I can be out quite a bit and still be mostly on overs, but 10%? $2.70 instead of $3?
Flip a coin, heads your overs, tails your unders. That's about as accurate as anyone will ever get in an individual race before it starts. |