Mainstream long-term winners don't win every week.

The charges don't immediately apply in losing weeks, which is of little consolation, because even if Betfair garnishes you only 1 week in 10, it can slug you for up to 20-something% of all your profits for the past 60 weeks. So it will get you in the end.

Say that affected customers average 50% winning weeks.

If the 1st week reels in 1,000 the 2nd would also get ~1,000. But in week 2, 50% of the previous customers would lose and get a temporary reprieve, and 50% that lost last week would now win and get slugged.

So you would expected the cumulative affected customers in successive weeks to be:

1,000
1,500
1,750
1,875

until eventually 2,000 is reached.


But Betfair is claiming that its 0.5% figure is constant irrespective of how big the sample period is.

Considering my example above, that constant 0.5% claim is staggering.

If that claim is actually true then Betfair has withheld some other important relevant statistics from us.